Sunday, January 17, 2010

Stock Idea: Donear Industries

Donear Industries is into textile and they have a very strong brand Donear Suitings for which Yuvraj Singh is the brand ambassador. The company has set up a new textile plant in Surat with an investment outlay of about Rs 220 crore for which they have gone for a borrowing of about Rs 120 crore. Prior to that it was a debt-free company and it has been doing quite. It had given bonuses in last five-years with a very high promoter stake of 90%, which the stock exchanges has asked them to reduce to 75%.
But since the Surat project of Rs 220 crore, which had gone onstream just six-months back, the company have been providing depreciation on the written down value method while all the listed companies are providing depreciation on the straight-line method. This is was because of the policy having adopted for written down value method. The depreciation burden has been quite high and that has resulted into the net loss.
If the company would have opted to provide depreciation on the straight-line method, there would have been net profit. If you see their H1 performance, they had a topline of close to Rs 115 crore in which Surat project has not contributed much – with a net loss of about Rs 5.80 crore and in this Rs 5.80 crore the depreciation element was at about Rs 17.5 crore. So if I take the cash profit element, the company had posted a cash profit of about Rs 11 crore for six-months on a equity of close to about Rs 10.40 crore.
The share has a face value of Rs 2 and now this Surat project will start contributing to the topline as well as to the bottomline. Maybe, I don’t know what would the logic will be, it may prevail upon the management to opt for the change in the depreciation policy and if they opt to do that – there would be a reversal of depreciation, which can result in a huge write back of the depreciation which can improve the bottomline.
But even if you take on a fundamental basis with a market cap of the company at about Rs 165 crore, as I said the debt is only to the extent of Rs120 crore – this company with an enterprise value of Rs 300 crore is ruling at a very low valuation. Their brand itself has been estimated in the past at about close to Rs 130-140 crore.
There is good upside. We have been seeing renewed interest coming in the textile stocks. I think if someone can take a call on this stock with six months view, one can expect at least 60% return from hereon.
Source: Internet (Moneycontrol.com by S P Tulsian)

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Stock Idea: Sintex Industries

Domestic plastic business picking up; Revenues in line: Sintex Industries’ (Sintex) consolidated Net Sales grew by 3.4% to Rs848cr (Rs820cr) in 3QFY2010; however, sequentially they grew by 18.5%, which was in line withour estimates but below street expectations. The strong sequential revenuegrowth was largely led by the domestic single storey pre-fabs and the domestic custom moulding segments, on account of better capacity utilisation and a pick-up in orders. The monolithic segment has shown a moderate yoy growth of 1.6%, much below our expectation, on the back of slower execution; the management has maintained its annual revenue guidance of ~Rs700cr. Standalone BT Shelters and the textile segment continue to drag
the revenues. The benefit of higher raw materials prices will start showing from the ensuing quarters, by boosting Sintex’s top-Line.
Operational performance impacted by a lower contribution from the textile and monolithic segments: Sintex’s 3QFY2010 consolidated Operating profit stood at Rs 126.9cr (Rs127.3cr), flat yoy. The OPM for the quarter stood at 15.0%, 50bp down yoy and 320bp down qoq, on account of a lower contribution from the high margin monolithic and textile segments. However,the international business continued to show stability in its operating margins, on account of the ongoing integration process. The EBIT margin for the Plastic segment was higher by 85bp yoy, but lower by 308bp qoq, on account of a lower contribution from the high margin monolithic segment. The quarterly margins are not a fair indicator, due to the lumpiness of its monolithic business and we expect a high contribution from the segment in 4QFY2010.
The EBIT Margin in the Textile segment, which continues to remain weak, declined by 1,345bp yoy; it went up by 349bp qoq, on account of improving capacity utilisation.
Management maintains its FY2010 guidance: The management is maintaining its annual revenue guidance of Rs3,300cr and of a 5% yoy PAT growth in FY2010. As on 2QFY2010, Sintex has a cash balance of Rs1,100cr and debt of Rs1,900cr on its books; hence, it is sufficiently funded for capex and for acquisitions.
Segment-Wise Performance
• Monolithic segment drag revenues in domestic plastic segment; however management maintains its annual revenue guidance of ~Rs700cr for the same.
• Revenues in all segments, except Standalone BT Shelter, Zeppelin, Wausaukee and textiles, have increased yoy.
• Sales from the Textiles division were lower by 5.9% yoy at Rs89.0cr (Rs94.5cr), however it went up by 16.8% qoq indicating pick up in demand for high-end fabrics. The management was positive about demand revival in the segment in ensuing quarters.
• The Standalone Pre-fab segment, which includes BT shelter, declined by 2.8% yoy, and was impacted by a slowdown in capex for telecom towers across the industry. The BT Shelter will continue to remain weak, due to the slowdown in capex from the telecom sector.
• The Monolithic segment grew by mere 1.6% yoy on account of slower execution; moreover, the order book of Rs1,500cr provides strong revenue visibility over the next two years. We expect growth to accelerate in ensuing quarters.
• The domestic Custom moulding revenue was up by 12.7% yoy, at Rs115cr on account of surge in demand in electrical accessories as investment in power sector picks up. Bright Autoplast revenue, which grew by 78.5% yoy, was aided by the operations of its new Chennai plant. Wausaukee continues to remain weak on lower capacity utilisation and weak demand. Consequently consolidated custom moulding segment grew by11.2% yoy to Rs401cr.
Operational performance impacted by lower contribution from high margin segment The EBIT margin for the Plastic segment was higher by 85bp yoy, but lower by 308bp qoq, on account of a lower contribution from the high margin monolithic segment. The EBIT Margin in the Textile segment, which continues to remain weak, declined by 1,345bp yoy; however, it went up by 349bp qoq, on account of improving capacity utilisation and a pick-up in demand. The quarterly margins are not a fair indicator, due to the lumpiness of its monolithic business and we expect a high contribution from the segment in 4QFY2010.
Outlook and Valuation
Sintex’s higher exposure to government orders provides it with higher visibility and a lesser risk of cancellation in the domestic plastic segment. The Monolithic segment has an order book position of around Rs1,500cr. Going ahead, we expect the company’s business to be primarily driven by its domestic plastic segment, on account of the government’s higher thrust on infrastructure and a pick-up in private capex.
We expect growth to accelerate in the ensuing quarters, as the company starts passing on the higher input prices to its customers; additionally, the recovery in the domestic auto and electrical segments will boost its custom moulding segment. We believe that Sintex will resume its historical growth trajectory from FY2011 onwards. The integration of foreign subsidiaries will act as a key catalyst for the stock’s performance. However, early signs of margin recovery have already been witnessed. At Rs260, the stock is currently trading at 7.7x its FY2012E Earnings and at 1.4x its FY2012E Book Value. Historically, Sintex has traded at 13.6x its one-year forward average (two, three and five-year) P/E, which makes the current valuations attractive. Moreover, its fundamentals have been strengthened with a well-capitalised balance sheet, strong revenue visibility (monolithic order book of Rs1,500cr), and a demand revival in its domestic plastic segment. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a target price of Rs369.
Source: Internet (Valuenotes by Angel Securities)

Friday, January 15, 2010

Intraday Trading Calls for 15th January

Indian Stock Market may open positive and remains good positive for the day today.
Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

ATLANTA

Buy Above

188.50

193.60

198.00

Sell Below

186.45

182.10

177.00

ESCORTS

Buy Above

158.75

163.55

168.00

Sell Below

157.45

153.10

150.00

TINPLATE INDIA

Buy Above

94.50

97.25

101.00

Sell Below

93.40

91.20

88.00

BRFL

Buy Above

214.70

220.15

226.00

Sell Below

211.35

206.70

201.00

TANLA SOLUTION

Buy Above

64.80

67.50

70.00

Sell Below

63.70

61.25

59.00

IDBI

Buy Above

132.60

136.15

140.00

Sell Below

131.05

127.60

124.00

IDFC

Buy Above

162.55

166.20

170.00

Sell Below

160.00

157.15

154.00

GOOD LUCK

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Intraday Trading Calls for 14th January

Indian Stock Market may open positive and remains good positive for the day today.
Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

ATLANTA

Buy Above

183.60

188.45

194.00

Sell Below

181.35

176.80

172.00

ESCORTS

Buy Above

158.25

163.55

168.00

Sell Below

156.45

153.10

150.00

APTECH LTD.

Buy Above

203.80

209.10

214.00

Sell Below

201.50

197.35

192.00

BRFL

Buy Above

205.15

210.50

216.00

Sell Below

203.40

198.60

193.00

TANLA SOLUTION

Buy Above

64.60

67.10

70.00

Sell Below

63.50

61.25

59.00

PRISM CEMENT

Buy Above

51.15

53.70

56.00

Sell Below

50.00

48.10

46.00

RAIN COMMODITI

Buy Above

246.70

254.15

262.00

Sell Below

243.15

238.10

232.00

Short to Medium Term Delivery Pick:

Buy Escorts Ltd. (500495) CMP Rs. 158/- Short to Med. Term Target Rs. 190 - 210/- Stop Loss Rs. 148/-.

Buy Prithvi Information Solutions Ltd. (532675) CMP Rs. 75/- Short to Med. term Target Rs. 95 - 120/-.

GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Intraday Trading Calls for 13th January

Indian Stock Market may open negative and remains negative today but some buying expected at lower levels.
Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

ATLANTA

Buy Above

184.10

189.55

195.00

Sell Below

181.35

176.80

172.00

HANUNG TOYS

Buy Above

121.75

125.25

128.00

Sell Below

120.05

116.45

113.00

APTECH LTD.

Buy Above

199.20

204.75

210.00

Sell Below

197.35

192.65

188.00

CORE PROJECTS

Buy Above

196.25

201.60

207.00

Sell Below

193.70

189.40

185.00

TANLA SOLUTION

Buy Above

64.00

66.50

69.00

Sell Below

62.70

60.10

58.00

CEAT LTD.

Buy Above

151.25

156.40

161.00

Sell Below

149.20

146.35

142.00

EXIDE INDUSTRIES

Buy Above

122.25

126.30

130.00

Sell Below

120.10

117.35

114.00

GOOD LUCK

Stock Idea: IFCI

Third quarter performance from this oldest financial institution of India was disappointing but yet the share price did not exactly crash. This is because investors, despite the results, know that IFCI is looking for a suitable groom and that anticipation of a ’very happy married’ has kept the buoyancy in the share price intact.
For Q3FY10, sequentially revenue was down 6.32% at Rs.385.07 crore though YoY was up 9%. Net profit was down by 28.42% on QoQ at Rs.136.35 crore and yet, YoY, it managed to show a jump of 30%. So clearly, call it the base effect or anything, the improvement YoY seems assuring. Its not like a total downhill performance.
The Govt is now considering two options – either merge IFCI with another institution or sell the Govt stake to the perfect suitor. What makes IFCI extremely attractive for stake sale and not merger is that it has a substantial realty hold. It has about 4.66 lakhs sq. ft. of commercial area, of which, prominent ones are IFCI Tower of about 3 lakh sq. ft. in New Delhi and about 30,000 sq. ft. in Nariman Point in Mumbai. In addition to this, it has 7.54 lakh sq. ft. of owned residential premises, of which major ones are in Mumbai and Delhi. That apart, IFCI is holding 5.44% stake of NSE, 29% stake of Tourism Finance Corporation, 17% stake of Stockholding and 8% of GIC Housing Finance. In addition, IFCI has investments in various quoted and unquoted investments, of close to Rs.2,000 crore.
Currently, the Govt has no direct stake in IFCI. It is through State-owned institutions like LIC (8.4%), Punjab National Bank (1.75%), GIC (2.26%), Central Bank of India (1.51%), Canara Bank (1.40%), Oriental Insurance (1.39%), UCO Bank (1.16%) and New India Assurance (1.16%), totaling 19.03%.
The capital adequacy of IFCI is in excess of 20% against the regulatory requirement of 10%. This means that IFCI is no longer looking for a stake sale for capital induction. A 20% CAR means IFCI can itself double its balance sheet size.
We have been consistently asking our users to stay invested or even buy into IFCI. At every dip, right since the levels of Rs.20, we urged out users to buy and most have done so and today they would surely be a happier lot. Stay invested.
Source: Internet (www.premiuminvestments.in by S P Tulsian)

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Intraday Trading Calls for 12th January

Indian Stock Market may open flat to negative but remains very volatile for the day and a flat trading expected today.
Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

NATCO PHARMA

Buy Above

130.10

134.20

138.00

Sell Below

128.35

124.10

120.00

HANUNG TOYS

Buy Above

121.10

125.50

130.00

Sell Below

119.40

115.70

111.00

ASTRA MICRO

Buy Above

73.75

77.20

81.00

Sell Below

72.50

69.35

66.00

ICSA

Buy Above

187.60

192.70

198.00

Sell Below

185.10

180.60

176.00

CAIRN INDIA

Buy Above

301.75

307.25

312.00

Sell Below

298.50

293.15

288.00

CEAT LTD.

Buy Above

152.20

157.15

162.00

Sell Below

150.35

147.40

143.00

EXIDE INDUSTRIES

Buy Above

122.25

126.30

130.00

Sell Below

120.10

117.35

114.00

GOOD LUCK

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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