Thursday, September 10, 2009

Stock Idea: Jagatjit Industries, Taneja Aerospace Aviation

Jagatjit Industries
Jagatjit Industries is a 60 year old liquor company famous for Aristocrat brand Whisky. They also had brands like Maltova, etc. which they sold to SmithKline a couple of years back. This company was dragged in problems between the promoters of the group and a wide order in the month of March by CLB, that problem has not been resolved. CLB ordered the company to buy back the shares of other promoter group and they have already brought back the shares which led to reduction in equity from about Rs 52 to about Rs 44 crore. If you look at the valuations of the company, at the current price the market cap of the company is just about Rs 200 crore, the gross of the company is Rs 540 crore and this being a 60 year old company and the market cap just being 50% of gross the real value of the assets must be much more.
This company has done sales of about Rs 800 crore on the last year, so even if you compare this company with the drop on the basis of sales and brand equity this looks grossly undervalued compared to the peer group.
On Taneja Aerospace Aviation
If we see the price pattern of this stock, this stock has been primarily rangebound between Rs 30–40 for a long period of time. Promoters picked-up about 5% of the stake in the company they increased the stake by about 5% in the month of November at about Rs 28 and the stock has been primarily rangebound mainly because of the negatives which surround the sector and also the company. Last year there were rumours of a Delhi based infrastructure company wanting to take a stake in their air strip project and the valuations being talked about are very high, and at that time the stock touched a high of about Rs 250–270.
The company has a 250-acre land where they have made an airstrip which is largely unutilized and I see that as an opportunity, the reason that we are getting the stock at a market cap of just about Rs 100 crore is primarily because of the reasons which are mentioned. When things look rosy and everything starts looking good. When they are fresh with orders for aircraft and the value unlocking which people are expecting that airstrip will have that happens and you won’t get the stock for Rs 35-40. The reason you are getting the stocks at current valuations is only because of the negatives which are surrounding and the good thing is that the promoters themselves have increased their stake at about Rs 28 in the month of November. At that time there was pessimism all around and the stock has also been range bound for a very long period of time and that’s a reason you are getting this stock for Rs 35, when there were rumours of someone big buying that airstrip business and fancy valuations being talked about at that time the stock was not available for Rs 35 and it was available for Rs 250–270. So this is the one for the patient investors who can just sit on the stock and wait for company to unlock the value for the shareholders.
Source: Moneycontrol.com (By Ashish Chug)

Intraday Trading Calls for 10th September

Indian Stock Market may open positive and remains good positive for the day today.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

CAIRN INDIA

Buy Above

271.65

275.45

280.00

Sell Below

269.15

265.20

261.00

IDFC

Buy Above

145.25

148.75

153.00

Sell Below

143.10

140.20

136.00

SELAN EXPLO

Buy Above

290.25

297.10

305.00

Sell Below

286.35

280.35

275.00

OPTO CIRCUIT

Buy Above

208.20

213.60

220.00

Sell Below

204.35

198.30

192.00

FIRST LEASING

Buy Above

51.25

54.10

57.00

Sell Below

49.35

47.15

44.00

HCC

Buy Above

112.75

117.25

122.00

Sell Below

110.45

106.55

102.00

VIJAYA BANK

Buy Above

43.60

45.75

48.00

Sell Below

42.10

40.30

38.00

Multibagger:

Buy First Leasing Company of India Ltd. (500145) CMP Rs. 50/- Short Term Target Rs. 65/-. Medium Term Target Rs. 90/- Long Term Target Rs. 150/-.

GOOD LUCK

Stock Idea: GMR Infra

GMR Infrastructure Ltd. has been in the news for revealing its mega capital raising plans, resulting in a good value unlocking for the shareholders of the company.

The company operates mainly in 4 verticals, of Airports, Energy, Highways and Urban Infrastructure, with its holding company being GMR Holdings Pvt. Ltd. The company has an immediate plan to take GMR Energy Ltd., public, which is holding company for its power verticals with 100% stake being held by GMR Infra Ltd. This power company has 3 operational power projects for 820 MW, with 8 projects under development of 6,260 MW making total capacity at 7,080 MW. Though it is hinted to raise Rs. 1,500 crores in this company, but no terms, in respect to pricing or stake dilution, has been spelt out.

If we go by the recent IPO of Adani Power, with paid up equity base of Rs. 2,180 crores, resulting in a market capitalization of Rs. 22,000 crores and estimated debt of Rs. 34,500 crores, gives an enterprise value of Rs. 56,500 crores for an effective capacity of 6,600 MW, to be made operational by March 2012.

So broadly, GMR Energy, which has a present paid up equity of Rs. 1,425.08 crores as at 31st March 2009 with the reserves of Rs. 339 crores and total assets of Rs. 2,588 crore and total liabilities of Rs. 824 crores, can very well be compared with Adani Power. However, the company plans to go public after financial closure of its 4 thermal based power projects, to get better valuations in IPO.

It is an accepted fact that all the present power projects, under execution, are financed on a debt equity of 3:1 and this can eventually have a debt of Rs. 20,000 crores on completion of 7,080 MW power project by March 2013. So, expecting an EV of Rs. 56,500 crores, also for this company, market capitalization can be expected to be close to Rs. 36,000 crores. So, even if 10% stake is diluted, which is required, and is minimum, it should be able to garner Rs. 3,600 crores against Rs. 3,000 crores mobilized by Adani Power with 13.50% stake dilution.

However, there is no clarity in respect to ownership of Intergen, in which 50% stake has been acquired by the company or the group, having 8,086 MW operational capacity in 5 countries in 4 continents and further developing 4,686 MW, all being gas based power projects. This stake of 50% in Intergen, looks to have been acquired by an overseas subsidiary of Promoter, of GMR Infra, with 95% stake held and 5% stake held by the company. Also, the company has subscribed to Compulsory Convertible Debentures in GMR Holding (Malta) Ltd. for Rs. 845 crores, which are to be converted into equity at the option of company prior to Feb 2012. It is also stated in the FY 09 Annual Report of the company that the company, through its step down subsidiary GMR Energy Global Ltd has entered into necessary arrangements to acquire 50% stake in Intergen NV and has given a corporate guarantee upto maximum of US $ 1.38 billion to the lenders, on behalf of fellow subsidiary, to enable it to raise debt of financing the acquisition of Intergen.

So, there seems to be great value lying in the energy verticals of the company, and one needs to collate all the financials of this vertical to assess its true enterprise value and means of finance of various projects, under execution.

Company’s Highway vertical has 6 operational road projects of 421 kms. with annuity of 255 km and Toll based for 166 kms. The company is also aggressively bidding for the other road projects which are due to get awarded in the next 12 months.

Its Urban Infrastructure vertical has 3,300 acres in Tamil Nadu, 250 acres Aviation specific SEZ on eastern side of Hyderabad Airport, 250 acre Multiproduct General SEZ on western side of Hyderabad Airport, 250 acres at Delhi Airport and 1,000 acres at Hyderabad Airport.

In Airport vertical, the company is holding 50.10% stake in Delhi Airport, 63% stake in Hyderabad Airport and 40% in Sabiha Gokcen International Airport at Istanbul in Turkey.

The company as at 31-03-09 has a total debt of Rs. 12,024 crores on net worth of Rs. 6,471 crores, resulting in debt equity of 1:85:1. The present market capitalization of the company is at Rs. 25,000 crores, resulting in an EV of Rs. 37,000 crores. The company has cluster of growth oriented infrastructure projects, with each vertical having a valuation of over Rs. 20,000 crores, barring highway verticals.

The company needs to pump in close Rs. 10,000 crores in the company to execute and accelerate these projects, and all the efforts to bring in IPO, of various verticals are in that direction only. However, plans of mobilizing Rs. 7,500 crores by bringing in IPO of holding company of GMR Infrastructure may not be very feasible and convincing, as it will amount to double listing of the same projects and assets. Instead, company can contemplate QIP issue and thus mobilize the desired funds in GMR Infra, which will eventually reduce the stake of the promoters, in GMR Infra.

It is certain that the company has huge asset base with extremely good long term growth potentials which needs to be made operational by infusing need based funds with the most optimum financing patterns and models.

Source: www.premiuminvestments.in (By S P Tulsian)

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