Investment Idea: GMDC

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd. (GMDC) is a Gujarat State government undertaking engaged in the business of lignite, bauxite and fluorspar mining as also power generation units based on Lignite.

The company has been posting improved financial performance quarter on quarter of FY 08. For FY 07, the total income was at Rs.610 crores with EBITDA of Rs.310 crores, PBT of Rs.157 crores and PAT of Rs.105 crores, resulting in an EPS of Rs.6.60 (face value Rs.2).

For 9 months ending 31-12-07, the total income of the company was Rs.700 crores with EBITDA of Rs.419 crores, PBT of Rs.270 crores and PAT of Rs.200 crores, giving an EPS of Rs.12.60 for 9 month. Hence, FY 08, is likely to have topline in excess of Rs.1,000 crores with PAT of close to Rs.300 crores, giving an EPS of close to Rs.19 on face value of Rs.2 per share.

The present equity of the company is Rs.31.80 crores with face value of Rs.2 per share. The board of the company proposed 1 : 1 bonus shares in last week of January 08 and share is presently ruling at Rs.308 cum bonus.

This translates into a market capitalization of close to Rs.5,000 crores for the company, which is quite low compared to rich reserves of lignite held at its various mines. Even total borrowing of less than Rs.800 crores is largely for net current assets which makes it virtually a debt free company.

The shareholding pattern of the company as at 31-12-07 is 74% with the promoters being the Govt. of Gujarat, 12% by Mutual Funds, Banks and Financial Institutions and 14% by Public with about 47,000 shareholders.

The company presently producing about 80 lakh MT of lignite at its three mines. New mines have been developed at the various locations at Surat to cater to South Gujarat where estimated annual production would be 10 lakh MT. 10 lakh MT of lignite production at Amod near Bharuch would fully contribute in FY 09. 30 lakh tonne of lignite production is estimated from Bhavnagar mines to cater to Saurashtra region and Central Gujarat. So, in FY 09, the production of lignite shall get increased by about 40%.

The company also has 250 MW power plant in operation based on lignite.

Lignite referred to as Brown Gold, is an alternative for coal which is in great demand, as natural resources are becoming scarce all over the world. FY 09 the company may see a topline of Rs.1,500 with PAT of Rs.600 crores which would result in an EPS of Rs.38, on pre-bonus equity. This results into a PE multiple of just 8 times for the stock, which is very cheap for any mining company.

The share which is now ruling at Rs.308, would go ex-bonus by the end of April at Rs.155. The stock at this rate is quite cheap, which can give a conservative return of close to 50% per annum over the next two years.A safe and excellent bet at Rs.308 levels on cum-bonus basis.

Source: sptulsian.com

Investment Idea: Alembic Pharma

More than 100 year’s old, it is an integrated pharmaceutical company, recognized more popularly as the “Glycodin” company. It has over 90 brands covering antibiotics, antibacterials, cardiovasculars, cough/cold and antihistamines.

For the third quarter ended 31st December 2007, YoY, the net sales was up 40% at Rs.260.62 crore. Of this domestic sales comprised of Rs.173.63 crore and exports were at Rs.91.63 crore. Total expenditure rose by almost 50%. What is noteworthy is that the company spends substantially on R&D. Its R&D bill rose from Rs.6.80 crore last Q3 to Rs.11.20 crore in the current Q3. Its interest bill burgeoned by a whopping 176% at Rs.8.38 crore. Due to this, its PBT actually took a beating; it fell 19% at Rs.19.87 crore.

But then came its knight in the shinning armour! It sold off its surplus land and earned a decent one-time gain of Rs.22.55 crore. And thanks to the land deal, the company managed to show a bumper net profit, which was up 1.67 times at Rs.42.02 crore, which otherwise would have been down by over 20%. There is no doubt that the company needs to work on getting its overall expenditure down or else, there wont be too much surplus land left every time, to bail it out.

The company is now utilizing Rs.29.17 crore from share premium account and Rs.102.58 crore from its general reserve account, against debit to Profit and Loss Account of the balances in the Intangible Assets Account of the company to the tune of Rs.176.83 crore after making due adjustment for Deferred Tax. The effect of the same will now appear in the annual accounts for the year ending on March 31, 2008. This intangible asset mainly represents amount paid for acquiring 24 brands pf non-oncology formulation business of Dabur Pharma.

The company has acquired the API manufacturing facility of Nirayu, located on the outskirts of Vadodara, for a consideration of Rs.17.50 crore and will be used by the company to increase its API business and regulatory filings. It is a USFDA approvable facility. USFDA also successfully inspected the company’s formulation facility at Panvel.

The company is very sound and hopefully, the reduction in the excise duty announced in the Budget 2008-09 would benefit the company to post better results in the coming months. Currently quoted at Rs.46, stay invested.

Source: sptulsian.com

Markets Today

Buying in battered pivotals triggered solid rally on the bourses in late trade, with market closing near highest point of the day. However, the market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market remained negative. 24 shares from the 30-member Sensex pack advanced.
Most Asian markets, which opened before Indian market, were trading lower. European markets, which opened after Indian market, were in green.
As per provisional closing, the 30-share BSE Sensex surged 441.07 points or 2.87% at 15,792.42. The Sensex settled at the highest level of the day. Sensex had slipped 26 points at days low of 15,331.35 in early trade.
The broader based S&P CNX Nifty advanced 133.10 points or 2.88% at 4,756.70 As per provisional closing.
The Sensex declined 4943.36 points or 24.35% in calendar 2008 (till yesterday, 13 March 2008).
Driven by the higher prices of food items and manufactured products, annual inflation rate based on the wholesale price index increased to 5.11% for the week ended 1 March 2008 as against 5.02% in the previous week. Inflation rate stood at 6.51% for the corresponding week in the previous year.
Finance minister (FM), P Chidambaram today said he expects the economy to maintain growth levels of above 8.5% in the coming years. FM also said in parliament that the present volatility in the local stock market reflected worldwide phenomena.
Despite the rally, the market breadth remained negative: On BSE 1,473 shares declined as compared to 1202 that advanced. 62 shares remained unchanged.
The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 1.02% to 6,596.23 and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.20% to 8,091.46, as per provisional closing,. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
The total turnover amounted to Rs 5880 crore as compared to Rs 4924 crore by 15:45 IST on BSE.
Indias leading private sector power utility company in terms of sales, Reliance Energy galloped 13.01% to Rs 1353 on 12.35 lakh shares. It was the top gainer from Sensex pack. The stock is the worst performing Sensex stock, declining 47.47% in calendar 2008 (till yesterday 13 March 2008).
Real estate shares staged a comeback after recent plunge. Indias largest real estate developer DLF jumped 8.15% to Rs 656.20 on huge volumes of 28.83 lakh shares. The stock replaced GlaxoSmithkline Pharma in the S&P CNX Nifty index from today. The BSE Realty index declined 44.33% in calendar 2008 (till yesterday, 13 March 2008).
Indias largest private sector company in terms of market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries rose 4.40% to Rs 2340.20 on 11.84 lakh shares. It moved in a range of Rs 2225 and Rs 2316.60 so far during the day. The stock is down 21.27% in the calendar year 2008 (till yesterday 13 March 2008).
IT pivotals advanced on fresh buying. Satyam Computer Services (up 4.61% to Rs 380.85), Infosys Technologies (up 2.74% to Rs 1370), TCS (up 3.76% to Rs 807.85), and Wipro (up 0.93% to Rs 368.40), logged gains.
Frontline banking shares gained despite the latest data showing a surge in inflation. ICICI Bank (up 4.30% to Rs 873.95), HDFC Bank (up 1.23% to Rs 1,312.25) and State Bank of India (up 0.78% to Rs 1,709) edged higher.
Hindalco (up 4.78% to Rs 182), NTPC (up 4.35% to Rs 194.80), and Larsen & Toubro (up 4.10% to Rs 2920), gained from Sensex pack.
Jaiprakash Associates soared 7.80% to Rs 236. The stock replaced Bajaj Auto in the BSE 30-share Sensex pack from today.
Bajaj Holdings & Investment settled at Rs 775 in highly volatile trade after its auto and the financial services businesses were spun off effective today, 14 March 2008. As per the restructuring, Bajaj Holdings, earlier known as Bajaj Auto, has 30% in Bajaj Auto and Bajaj Finserv, both to be listed separately in due course. The stock hit a high and low of Rs 1143.80 and Rs 720 respectively.
Bharti Airtel, the countrys top listed cellular services provider lost 3.26% to Rs 753 on 6.31 lakh shares. It was the top loser from Sensex pack.
Auto stocks were subdued. Mahindra & Mahindra (down 2.57% to Rs 644) and Maruti Suzuki India (down 0.32% to Rs 837.10) slipped on profit booking.
Reliance Natural Resouces was the top traded counter on BSE with turnover of Rs 305.11 crore followed by Reliance Petroleum (Rs 274.47 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs 271.37 crore), GSS America Infotech (Rs 223.33 crore), and Bajaj Holdings & Investment (Rs 197.02 crore), in that order.
The next trigger for the market would come from the figures of advance tax payment by corporates for the fourth installment, which falls due on 15 March 2008.
Another major trigger for the market is outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting on 18 March 2008 to review interest rates. A cut in interest rate, as expected by the street may provide some support to the markets. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had signaled a readiness to cut interest rates again to prevent further damage to the weak US economy, even as he took note of rising inflation risks.
European markets were higher. Key benchmark indices from United Kingdom (up 0.45% to 5,718.20), France (up 0.43% to 4,650.25), and Germany (up 0.67% to 6,543.90), gained.
Most Asian markets were trading lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (down 0.29% at 22,237.11), Japan's Nikkei (down 1.54% at 12,244.48), Seoul Composite (down 0.95% at 1,600.26), Taiwan Weighted (down 0.60% at 8,161.39) and Shanghai Composite (down 0.22% at 3,962.67) edged lower after early rise.
However Singapores Straits Times index rose 1.19% at 2,839.01
US markets reversed early losses on Thursday, 13 March 2008, as S&P predicted an end to subprime mortgage writedowns. The early fall came after lower than expected retail sales and reports that another hedge fund may collapse. The Dow Jones industrail average gained 35 points to 12,145. The Nasdaq rose 19 points at 2.263; while the S&P 500 gained 6 points to 1,315.
Back home, a major setback was witnessed on the bourses as share prices fell almost across the board on Thursday 13 March 2008. The 30-share BSE Sensex slumped 770.63 points or 4.78% at 15,357.35, its lowest level since early September 2007. The broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 242.40 points or 5.10% at 4,623.60 on that day
As per provisional data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 108.50 crore on Thursday, 13 March 2008. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of shares worth Rs 56.44 crore on that day.
FIIs were net buyers of Rs 242.82 crore in the futures & options segment on Thursday, 13 March 2008. They were net sellers of index futures to the tune of Rs 85.43 crore and bought index options worth Rs 85.82 crore. They were net buyers of stock futures to the tune of Rs 238.73 crore and bought stock options worth Rs 3.70 crore.
US crude for April delivery fell 58 cents to $109.75 today, 14 March 2008 a barrel after hitting a record of $111. London Brent crude for April dropped 54 cents to $107
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Market Whispers

A big broking house is known to be liquidating its position in Sterlite Industries. The stock could see some turbulent times and may soften from present levels of Rs.755.

JSW Steel is expected to see a sharp spurt from the current price of Rs.900, backed by positive news that it is to commission its Vijaynagar plant, ahead of schedule. Share could touch four digit mark soon.

Kirloskar Brothers is a good buy at the current rate of Rs.285, it has corrected substantially and is now perched at an attractive level.

A well-known mutual fund is accumulating Powergrid, especially in the wake of the current price fall at Rs.90.

Educomp may bounce back from the present level of Rs.3,250 by Rs.200.

DLF will see a sharp spurt from the current levels as punters are taking this opportunity of the dip in the price to shore up their holdings. Share may soon cross Rs.670 mark.

Ranbaxy is being tipped as one of the best bets in this volatile market, at Rs.460 levels.

Intraday Calls for 14th March

Today some recovery expected in Indian Stock Market as global cues are bit good. US markets closed positively yesterday.

Today's Intraday Picks:
SATYAM COMPUTER
INDIAINFO
RPL
BAJAJHIND
PRITHVI INFO
For Levels and Targets download the file by Click Here.
Keep an eye on GMR Infra Above Rs. 152 and Ansal Infra Above Rs. 155.
Good Luck