Monday, October 15, 2007

Investment Idea: Blue Bird

Blue Bird is a leading paper based notebook manufacturer as also manufactures files, perforated pads, registers and filler paper.

Indian stationery market is largely dominated by unorganized sector to the extent of 80%. Of 20%, held by the organized sector, 15% is held by large players and 5% by small players. Of this 15%, company has market share of 48% or about 7% of the total stationery market.

The company went public on 16-11-06 with its IPO, of 87.75 lakh equity shares of Rs.10 each, at Rs.105 per share. Share listed on 14-12-06, and closed below its issue price at Rs.92..

For FY 07, total income of the company was placed at Rs.454.93 crores, EBITDA of Rs.57.39 crores, PBT of Rs.41.73 crores and PAT of Rs.26.95 crores on equity of Rs.35 crores, resulting in an EPS of Rs.7.70. The company declared a dividend of 12% for the year. .

For quarter ending June 07, the company had achieved total income of Rs.129.59 croes, EBITDA of Rs.19.81 crores, PBT of Rs.12.62 crores and PAT of Rs.8.31 crores, giving an EPS of Rs.2.37 for the quarter. .

For FY 08, the company is expected to have a topline of Rs.600 crores. EBITDA of Rs.96 crores, PBT of Rs.60 crores and PAT of Rs.40 crores, which would result in an EPS of Rs.11 for FY 08. .

The company started its Indore unit on 17-09-07 with 6,656 sq. feet and Bangalore unit on 16-08-07 with 6,504 sq. feet which would increase its production from December 07 quarter. .

The company mobilized Rs.92 crores from IPO at Rs.105 per share, and Rs.12 crores from preferential allotment, by issuing 12.25 lakh shares on 30-10-06 at Rs.98 per share to India China Pre-IPO Equity (Mauritius) Ltd. .

The present equity is Rs.35 crores, which is held by the promoters, of 52.57%, FII 10.24% and rest with the public.
All the expansions of the company would get completed, in phases, between December 07 to March 08. Hence, FY 09 would be able to reap full benefits of expansions and hence the company would show a good growth of over 40% in FY 09 workings. .

Presently, the company is outsourcing its notebook, which would now be manufactured inhouse. Even, fresh infusion of funds would ease working capital pressure on the company. .

FY 07 of the company, did not see much growth in topline and bottomline. FY 07 total income was at Rs.455 crores against Rs.402 crores for FY 06 while PAT for FY 07 was at Rs.26.95 crores against Rs.25.12 crores of FY 06. This was not well received by the market. However, growth would be partly visible in FY 08 and to a great extent in FY 09.

The share is presently ruling at Rs.61, against its issue price of Rs.105 and book value of about Rs.55, as on 30-09-07. Considering an EPS of Rs.11, for FY 08, share is ruling at a PE of less than 6, which is about 4 times, if considered on FY 09 working.

Share can give about 30% return in the next 6 – 9 months, while downward risk is less than 10%. Even long term prospects of the company are good as this sector is traditionally enjoying a double digit PE multiples.
Source: www.sptulsian.com

Markets Today: Sensex closes above 19,000; Nifty above 5,600

It was an unbelievable run up in today's session with the momentum continuing in the markets and Sensex crossig the 19,000 level. It was a phenomenal day as Sensex saw the second highest single point day gain. Nifty did even better closing above 5650 levels. The ferrocity has been high and the gains were spread over broader markets as well. On Friday the markets took a breadther with Sensex dropping over 300 points but today it not only covered the loss but also went up scaling new peak.
The overall rally has been phenomenal as the bulls have got more heady pushing markets to new heights crossing some milestones in a very short span of time. The huge monetary flows and abundant liquidity continue to take markets at new peaks.
Haevyweights have nothched up further, metals were the top gainers in today's session. Some historic market caps were crossed by index pivitols.
ONGC's market capitalisation has hit Rs 2.5 lakh crore mark, it is the second company after Reliance to hit Rs 2.5 lakh crore mark. SAIL touched market capitalisation of 1 lakh crore.
Journey to 19,000:
SENSEX HITS 19,000
FASTEST EVER 1,000 POINT RALLY FOR SENSEX
TAKES 4 DAYS TO MOVE FROM 18,000 TO 19,000
CONTRIBUTION - RIL 153 PTS, ICICI BK 120 PTS, ONGC 119 PTS, L&T 108 PTS, BHARTI AIRTEL 96 PTS
TOP 5 STOCKS CONTRIBUTED 60% OF RALLY FROM 18K TO 19K

Sensex: Road to 19 K
19,000 Oct 15, 2007
18,000 Oct 9, 2007
17,000 Sep 26, 2007
16,000 Sep 19, 2007
15,000 July 6, 2007
14,000 Dec 5, 2006
13,000 Oct 30, 2006
12,000 Apr 20, 2006
11,000 Mar 21, 2006
10,000 Feb 6, 2006
9,000 Nov 28, 2005
8,000 Sep 8, 2005
7,000 Jun 20t, 2005
6,000 Feb 11, 2000
5,000 Oct 8, 1999
The obvious question in front of us now is where are the markets headed and what are the experts saying now.
G Devanathan of Rare Enterprises is of the view, "One should not have any targets to the upside but the way the market has moved today there is some more gains to go. At the same time the point to note is this kind of incredible speed is also too difficult to sustain but as of now the trend is up in fact at every fall the market has been textured and it has reasserted its uptrend in a defining manner so as long as the markets are continuing to make new highs one should just follow the trend. "
Metal continue to rally up with Tata Steel, Sesa Goa, Sterlite Ind, Hindalco among the major gainers. Stelite Industies was up 15%, Reliance Energy up 14%, ONGC, GAIL each up over 9% and Siemens up 8%.
Sensex was up 639.63 points or 3.47% at 19058.67, and the Nifty up 242.15 points or 4.46% at 5670.40.
About 2010 shares have advanced, 964 shares declined, and 73 shares are unchanged.
The BSE Small Cap Index closed at 9,311.97 up 2.4%.
The BSE Midcap Index ended at 7,716.91 up 2.5%.
BSE Metal Index was up 9.5%; SAIL up 16%, Sterlite up 15%, Tata Steel up 7.5%.
BSE Oil & Gas Index was up 4.8%; ONGC up 9.4%, GAIL up 9%.
The BSE FMCG Index closed at 2,156.65 up 1%. Bata India, United Spirits up 8% each followed by ITC, Colgate.
The BSE Capital Goods Index was up 3% at 17,119.70. Thermax,Punj Lloyd, Siemens, AIA Engineering Areva T&D, Jyoti Structure, L&T, Reliance Infra up over 5% each.
The BSE Auto Index closed at 5,613.37 up 2%. Maruti, Ashok Leyland, Tube Investments, Apollo Tyres, Hind Motors, Cummins, Escorts were among the gainers.
The BSE IT Index closed at 4,712.43 up 0.5%. Mphasis, Wipro, Patni Computer, HCL Tech, Satyam ended higher.
The BSE Bankex was up 4% at 9,706.81. Axis Bank up 9%, Yes Bank, Kotak Mahindra, Karnataka Bank, SBI, HDFC Bank, Bank of Baroda closed higher. The NSE cash turnover was at Rs 19592.17 crore and the NSE F&O turnover was at Rs 76830.02 crore. The BSE cash turnover was Rs 10391.09 crore. Total market wide turnover was at Rs 106813.28 crore.
Source:moneycontrol.com

Intraday Calls for 15th October

Markets today may open flat to positive and remain positive with high volatility. A positive closing expected today.

Buy for Intraday:

New Listing CCCL (510) Can list arround 625-650 Buy for target of 700
Reliance Energy (1636) Target 1670-1690 SL 1625
Tata Power (1048) Target 1075-1090 SL 1040
RCOM (712) Target 725-735 SL 705
Unity Infra (704) Target 725-730 SL 695
UNITECH (338) Target 350 SL 335
Rolta India (624) Target 645 SL 618
NIIT Ltd. (122) Target 125-128 SL 120
Tele Data (65) Target 70 SL 63
Mercator Lines (93) Target 100 SL 90

Others: VLS Finance (26), Soma Textile (30), GE Shipping (382), Mastek (364), Sun Pharma Advanced Research (89).

Good Luck

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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