Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Indian Stock Market at Long Term

When the going gets rough, you can either decide to mop around and think that life generally sucks or else you can decide to take life as it comes and learn to look at life all the time with a “glass half full” attitude. And we being the die-hard optimists we always are, its time to look at the brighter side of things.

The one big positive news which came in today was that of advance tax collections. This is the time of the year when corporate's start paying the advance taxes for the fiscal 2008-09. Typically, the collection figures of Q1 and Q2 gives an indication of the way in which the cookie will crumble in the coming months. And going by the writing on the wall right now, looks like things are indeed not as bad as they look right now.

As per data released by the Revenue Department, the advance tax pay-out of India Inc is estimated to have recorded a 30% increase for the June 15 instalment on a year-on-year basis. ONGC is the number one tax payer and PSUs continue to dominate the list of the top 10 tax payers like always. Private sector saw Reliance Industries, Tata Steel and ICICI Bank. Infact ICICI Bank, which did not find a place in the final list of top ten advance taxpayers’ for 2007-08, has returned to the top ten list in the June 15 instalment with an advance tax payment of Rs 340 crore (Rs 250 crore).

Why so much hullabaloo about advance tax figures, right? Advance tax is paid every three months, four times a year and in four instalments:
On or before the 15th June --- Not less than fifteen per cent.
On or before the 15th September--- Not less than forty-five per cent, as reduced by the amount, if any, paid in the first instalment.
On or before the 15th December --- Not less than seventy-five per cent, as reduced by the first and second instalments.
On or before the 15th March --- which is 100%, as reduced by the amount paid in the earlier instalments.

And once the advance taxation is declared it will soon be followed by the first quarter (Q1) results of FY08-09. These will start streaming in by July 10th and that in the true sense will dictate the market sentiments. That has been the case till now but this year, the prices of crude will also to a large extent dictate the market trends. This year, given the unprecedented rise of crude prices and its impact on economic growth and inflation, the indices will sway to the tune of the crude prices. If crude manages to settle down lower due to increased supply by Saudi in July that will give the much needed relief to inflation and help recoup some of the lost economic growth. That will help the index settle at 14,000 levels.

When the markets fell last week, the banking stocks were beaten down to the pulp by the investors. But the advance tax figures indicate that the banking sector might actually have a very robust Q1 in current fiscal. Union Bank of India’s advance tax payment was 88% higher YoY and SBIs tax payment of Rs.663 crore for the April-June 2008 period was the highest. The IT sector has the rupee once again to its advantage and this is bound to reflect much positively for the IT companies.

The next few weeks will be tough and inflation would be in double digit but the much needed cushion would be provided by the Q1 results and the trend of the results, in the true sense would be the trigger. If the Q1 results are good then it will help hold the markets at the 14,000 levels. But if the results turn out bad, then markets could slip to 13,000 levels.

There is pain in the market right now and will continue to give pain for some more time. But the advance tax figures indicate that the long term story continues to remain good. Take the opportunity of the falling market to buy into good value stocks, with a long term perspective. If you had missed the bus earlier and were left watching others make money, then maybe this is the time for you to make up for that lost opportunity.

One bad year cannot wash away all that has been achieved till now. There is a slowdown, so use that to your advantage to build a powerful portfolio. There is always morning after a dark night, sometimes the night is longer but the morning is always there!
By Ruma Dubey

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Market's Today Summary

Markets Snapshot
Markets slide during the mid of the day on European jitters; US Fed decision announcement tomorrow
Sensex ends down 187 pts at 14106.58; slips below 14,000 for the 1st time since Aug 21, 2007 during the day
Nifty ends down 75.3 pts at 4191; closes below 4,200 for 1st time since Aug 24, 2007
CNX Midcap Index down 1.65%, BSE Small-cap Index down 1.8%
All BSE sectoral indices end in the red
BSE Metal Index down 3.5%; Nalco down 9%, Sterlite down 5.2%, Tata Steel down 4.65%
BSE FMCG Index down 2.5%; HUL down 5.4%, ITC down 2%
Index losers; Sun Pharma down 6.7%, Tata Power down 6.25%, Siemens down 5.3%, L&T down 4%
Biggest Losers; ONGC down 3.5%, NTPC down 4%, Infy down 2.8%
Siemens, L&T, Tata Comm, HDFC Bank, MUL, M&M hit news 2008 lows
Re-listing: Rane Engine closes at Rs 146 Vs re-listing price at Rs 275
Losers; Radico Khaitan down 12.6%, C&C Cons down 10.7%, Adani Ent down 9.8%, Educomp down 9.4%, Welspun Guj, Wockhardt down 8%
NSE Advance Decline at 1:3
Total market turnover at Rs 87406 cr Vs Rs 83165 cr on Monday
F&O turnover at Rs 70250 cr Vs Rs 66917 cr on Monday
F&O Snapshot
Nifty Rollover at 39%; Market wide rollover at 38%
Nifty Futures sees fresh short build up in today’s trade
Nifty July discount widens to 50 point in intraday trade
Options:Nifty 4100 put adds 9.1 lakh sharesNifty 4200 put adds 2 lakh sharesNifty 4300 call adds 2.9 lakh sharesNifty 4500 call adds 1.7 lakh shares
Star Trade: Nalco dn 11.3%; adds 9.1 lakh shares in July series
Fresh Shorts : WWIL dn 8.7%; adds 10.8 lakh shares in July series Welspun Guj dn 8.7%; adds 8.7 lakh shares in July series HUL dn 7.8%; adds 16.4 lakh shares in July series R Power dn 7%; adds 13.4 lakh shares in July series Tata Steel dn 6.7%; adds 12 lakh shares in July series NTPC dn 6.5%; adds 35 lakh shares in July series
Roll Overs: India cement 63% Bank of Baroda 63% Bank of India 55% Hindalco 54% PNB 53%Grasim 53% Hdfc Bank 51% Unitech 49% SBI 49%

Source: moneycontrol.com

Markets Today

Markets witnessed sharp sell off for fifth consecutive trading session on the back of heavy selling from foreign investors, especially European investors. It seemed like bears become uncontrollable for bulls. Sensex and Nifty have touched new 2008 lows; Nifty slipped below 4200 and the Sensex below 14000 mark, the crucial levels. Heavy sell off in European markets also fueled to further weakness in the markets. Midcap and small cap stocks also hammered a lot.
It was a mild bounce back in opening trade after heavy sell off in last few sessions but that could not sustain for long. Markets had turned choppy and in the second half of session, it caught again in bears' grip. Last hour of session was very critical for the markets; heavy sell off has seen across sectors.
Reliance Industries was the only stock, which tried to hold back in the green and being supportive for the whole markets but crack in other heavyweights have put more selling pressure. The stock has touched a high of 2133.70 (5.5% over previous close) before closing the day at Rs 2066.20, up 2.18%.
Both indices closed at new 2008 lows. The Nifty ended below 4,200 for the first time since August 24, 2007, even the Sensex breached psychological level of 14000 in the last five minutes of trade but managed to back above that level at close. The Nifty touched a low 4156.10 before ending at 4191.10, down 1.76% or 75.3 points. The Sensex finished at 14,106.58, down 186.74 points or 1.31% after hitting an intraday low 13,991.31.
Turnover traded by the markets stood at Rs 87406.31 crore, which has been improving since last few sessions. This includes Rs 11760.63 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 70250.13 crore from NSE F&O and the balance Rs 5395.55 crore from BSE Cash segment.
Market breadth was weak; about 783 shares have advanced while 2064 shares declined. Nearly 280 shares have unchanged.
Amongst frontliners, NALCO was down -9.09%, Sun Pharma -6.77%, Tata Power -6.25%, HUL -5.37%, Tata Steel -4.60%, NTPC -3.92% and ONGC -3.61% while Suzlon Energy gained 5.09%, BHEL 2.85%, Ranbaxy Labs 2.33%, HDFC 2.28% and Reliance Ind 2.18%.
Metal Index has underperformed other indices, down 3.52% or 487.51 at 13,368.82 due to heavy selling in NALCO, Sterlite Ind, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, Hindalco and Sesa Goa.
FMCG stocks remained under selling pressure through the day, which includes Marico, HUL, Dabur India, ITC, Nestle and Colgate. Index fell 2.54% at 2,146.63.
BSE IT Index plunged 2.17% at 4,141.51 on the back of weakness in Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Mphasis, Wipro, HCL Tech, TCS and Satyam.
Auto stocks like Bajaj Auto, Hind Motors, Hero Honda, M&M, Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors lost the road. Index was down 2.06% at 3,842.77.
Banking stocks like Allahabad Bank, Kotak Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Oriental Bank and ICICI Bank were also draggers for the markets. Bankex slid by 130.92 points or 1.97% at 6,499.66.
Realty Index crashed by 1.72% at 5,098.44, which led by selling in Orbit Corporation, Mahindra Life, HDIL, Omaxe, Indiabulls Real and DLF.
Power stocks like Tata Power, Reliance Power, NTPC, Power Grid Corp, GVK Power, Torrent Power, GMR Infra and Reliance Infra lost ground. Index fell 1.64% at 2,398.09.
Capital Goods Index was down 157.41 points or 1.46% at 10,639.60 due to sell off in Siemens, Rel Ind Infra, Bharat Elec, L&T, BEML, Bharat Bijlee and Thermax. However, buying has seen in Suzlon Energy, BHEL and Alstom Projects.
Pharma stocks also butchered, which includes Wockhardt, Sun Pharma, Piramal Health, Orchid Chemical, Matrix Lab and Lupin. Index plunged 1.29% at 4,165.61. On the other hand, Panacea Biotech, Ranbaxy Labs, Cadila Health, Dr Reddy's Labs and Dishman Pharma have gained.
Oil & Gas Index ended with just 0.28% at 9,146.43. Selling has seen in GAIL, RNRL, ONGC, Petronet LNG, Cairn India, Essar Oil, IOC, BPCL and HPCL. However, Reliance Industries gained.
Midcap Index fell 1.76% or 102.49 points at 5,712.74 and the Small Cap Index down by 129.88 points or 1.82% at 7,006.42. Amongst midcap stocks, Educomp Sol, Spice Comm, Welspun Guj, Wockhardt, Phoenix Mills, Bajaj Holdings, Adhunik Metalik and BGR Energy slipped over 7%.
In the small cap segment, Simplex Project, Bliss GVS, Radico Khaitan, C and C Const, Surana Ind, Andhra Cemen, EIH Assoc Hotel, Mukta Arts and Kirloskar Pneum lost over 9%.
Most active counters on the bourses were Reliance Ind, Reliance Communication, L&T, Reliance Infrastructure, Reliance Petroleum and BHEL.
On the global front, Asian markets ended mixed. Shanghai was up 1.54%, Jakarta 0.11% while Taiwan Weighted fell -1.76%, Kospi -0.3%, Hang Seng -1.14% and Nikkei -0.06%. European markets crashed.

Source: moneycontrol.com

Intraday Trading calls for 24th June

Market may see small but good relief rally today. A positive closing expected. But be very carefull as high volatility contineous.

Today's Intraday Trading Calls/Stock Tips:

INDIABULLS REALEST
RPL
BOMBAY DYEING
ADLABS
PRAJ INDUSTRIES
SAIL

For Levels and Targets CLICK HERE.

Today's Watch List: GMR Infra, Voltas, Prithvi Info & LIC Housing Finance.

Good Luck

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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