Monday, May 18, 2009

Markets Today: Catch Me If You Can

The mood of people is unpredictable. Just as this point came through loud and clear when the election verdict came with a thumping victory for UPA, the way in which the markets behaved on opening trade on Monday morning further reiterated this fact. If the UPA's win was historic then the opening trade of Dalal Street today morning was even more historic. The markets have saluted the victory of the Congress with only circuit breakers!

And what a circuit breaker! Earlier, the markets opened for some 30 seconds and it hit the upper circuit. BSE stated that it was up 1789.88 points when it opened for trading and the NSE opened 531 points up, soon after which it once again breached the second circuit limit. This led to the halt of trading for two hours and the market was scheduled to re-open for trading at 11.55 am. And then, when the market re-opened at 11.55am, within a few seconds, the BSE was up 2099 points and the Nifty was up 636 points and that was done for the day. Trading was halted for the day!

This has never happened in the history of the stock exchange. Circuit breaker was always on account of a market crash but today, it was frozen due to a rise! And halting trading for a day due to a surge is historic indeed! To a large extent, this would seem like an anti climax; it’s like everyone was waiting to buy and but could not even put their buys onto the exchange.

As per the rules of the exchange, the circuit breaker system is applied at 3 stages of the index movement, either way viz. at 10%, 15% and 20%. In case of a 10% movement, there would be a one-hour market halt if the movement takes place before 13:00 IST. In case the movement takes place at or after 13:00 IST, but before 14:30 IST. there would be trading halt for ½ hour. In case movement takes place at or after 14:30 IST there will be no trading halt at the 10% level and market shall continue trading.
In case of a 15% movement, there will be a two-hour halt if the movement takes place before 1 p.m. And if this 15% trigger is reached on or after 13:00 IST but before 14:00 IST, there shall be a one-hour halt. If the 15% trigger is reached on or after 14:00 IST the trading shall halt for remainder of the day. In case of a 20% movement of the index, trading will be halted for the remainder of the day.
Celebrating the victory is also the Indian rupee which is currently trading at Rs.47.93 a US dollar.

It was expected that the markets would open for trading on a highly bullish note but no one had expected this kind of euphoria. This unprecedented win of the UPA is probably the market turner – from a complete bearish market it is now become a bullish market. What has happened is that people have been living in a pessimistic environment for a very long time and any good news is like a drowning man clutching at the straw for support. This political win is not a straw, it is a complete bark of wood, which could take one to the shores safely.

If one looks beyond the UPA win, the fundamentals of India’s economy and the world economy remains the same. One has to take a bullish but cautious approach to the markets now. No need to rush in to book profits as the bull charge has not even got down to the mid caps. There is a lot of money waiting to come to the market, so stay invested for now.

All eyes will now be on the new Govt which is expected to be sworn in on Friday and the event to look forward to will be the Union Budget. Till then, the rally is expected to remain bullish. But remember, once this euphoria settles down, one will start looking at individual stocks and maybe at that juncture, our market valuations would seem expensive. So tread with caution once the party is over and the hangover sets in.
Source: www.premiuminvestments.in (By Ruma Dubey)

Corporate News

Tatas, M&M, Maruti join hands for hybrid models. (BL)

Bharti Airtel says it is open to acquiring domestic telecom operators as part of its strategy to add another 100mn subscribers in three years.(BL)

MTNL launches 3G mobile services in Mumbai.(BL)

IDBI, ICICI Bank cut deposit rates.(BL)

Alcatel receives a five-year contract of about US$150mn from Unitech Wireless.(TOI)

MTNL looks at demerger of tower operations.(FE)

HCL Technologies plans to cancel hedging contracts worth US$600mn. (BS)

Bank of India, the largest promoter in its life venture company-Star Union Dai-ichi Life, may offload around 3% stake in favour of Union Bank of India.(DNA)

Tata Steel will pre-pay £200mn debt.(FE)

M&M may move production of key models out of Nashik. (BS)

Ashok
Leyland Nissan JV to delay by six months due to the current economic slowdown and delay in land acquisition. (BS)

Maruti
Suzuki to demonstrate 10 hybrid vehicles in Commonwealth Games. (BS)

Pantaloon
Retail sales jump over 20% in April as against sales clocked in the same period last year. (BS)

Voltamp
Transformers defers the construction work of its new manufacturing facility at Savli in Vadodara to save cost. (BS)

IOC, BPCL and HPCL raised the aviation turbine fuel price by Rs585 per kilolitre in Delhi to Rs32,199 with effect from midnight tonight. (BS)

BoB likely to start insurance business by March 2010. (BS)

GTL bags Rs3.2bn Maharashtra electricity deal.(BL)

Aegis BPO, the back office arm of the Essar Group, has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Australian contact centre company UCMS Group for Rs2bn.(BL)

MTNL drops plan to acquire Sri Lankan telecom company Suntel. (BS)

Bharti
Airtel crosses 100 mn customers. (BS)

Infosys Technologies receives the eBiz project of the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion under the Union Commerce and Industry Ministry. (BS)

Tata Teleservices Maharashtra says it will spend over Rs10bn this year, mainly to launch its GSM network in Mumbai and Maharashtra.(DNA)

British government ready to guarantee loans to Tata group-owned Jaguar Land Rover. (ET)

M&M in advanced stages of talks with US-based Caterpillar for a 51:49 joint venture, which will make engines for the US firm's tractor range. (ET)

Tata Steel to double its outlets to 1,000 in the next 2-3 years for sale of its branded products. (ET)

Ranbaxy Labs has chalked out plans to revamp its US business. (ET)

Piramal Life Sciences to invest Rs2bn in next two years for its ambitious programme to discover and develop new chemical entities and Novel Drug Delivery Systems. (ET)

Spice Group's mobile retailing arm HotSpot to spend Rs2bn on acquisitions and expansion of its operations across the country. (ET)

Captain Gopinath open to the idea of selling his 10% stake in Kingfisher Airlines. (ET)

Unitech plans to generate Rs9bn from the sale of two hotels in Gurgaon and a commercial office complex in Saket, New Delhi, by the end of June. (BS)

Shriram Transport Finance plans to set up a subsidiary for equipment finance for a proposed capital of around Rs1.5bn. (BS)

Tech Mahindra to set up BPO in Kolkata. (ET)

Promoters of Essar Shipping are considering delisting the company. (ET)

Source: indiainfoline.com

Intraday Trading Calls for 18th May

Stock Market India may open positive with gap up of about 8-10%.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

IRB INFRA

Buy Above

110.60

114.80

120.00

Sell Below

108.50

104.15

100.00

GMR INFRA

Buy Above

114.10

119.20

125.00

Sell Below

112.40

109.40

105.00

EKC

Buy Above

141.60

148.10

155.00

Sell Below

138.40

134.25

130.00

BANK OF BARODA

Buy Above

343.80

352.15

360.00

Sell Below

339.40

335.15

330.00

BANK OF INDIA

Buy Above

248.70

256.20

265.00

Sell Below

245.05

240.55

235.00

REL POWER

Buy Above

130.60

135.15

140.00

Sell Below

128.50

125.35

122.00

NTPC

Buy Above

189.10

194.25

200.00

Sell Below

187.40

184.30

180.00

Focus on Banking, Oil Marketing, Power Sector.

GOOD LUCK

UPA Clean Sweep: Markets Ready to Celebrate

Get the drums and the trumpets out!! Its party time folks! The election results have once again stumped the nation and the verdict which has come forth is absolutely stunning!

The various permutations and combinations of all the channels and the newspapers seemed to have gone to waste. All were right in stating that the UPA would lead but no one had expected the UPA to literally sweep the polls. The much feared Left is routed out in its own ‘home’ state – West Bengal. This means that the Left will no longer be a part of the ruling Govt and that in itself is the single best news for the stock markets. The Monday opening is expected to be thunderous and just as the UPA smothered the Third Front and the NDA, the bulls are now expected to kick out the bears. With one single party expected to come to the centre, FIIs will also be queuing up to have a slice of the pie of India, which now once again looks juicy.

Three important things have emerged from this verdict – the Left is out of the Govt; UPA is emerging as the majority party which puts to rest the ambitions of the “regional” parties and the routing out of the Third Front means that for the next few years, hopefully the next five years, regional parties will not demean the national interest.

The election verdict shows that people have voted for stability over anything else. They have thrown out the caste and regional agenda’s of the various parties and what people really wanted was a more secular party. Many had voted for the Congress saying that it is the better devil amongst the sea of devils. Whatever be the reasons, the pitching of young and educated candidates has surely gone in favour of UPA.

The success of UPA can be directly attributed to the hugely popular NREGA – National Rural Employment Guarantee Act. And the much controversial farmer debt waivers has also helped immensely. These two have gone hugely in favour of the UPA. When money is put into the pockets of the people through employment, what more could they ask for?

The victory of UPA will prove to be the best news for the stock market. As we have always maintained, it is sentiments which over rules anything. So right now the sentiments are buoyant and with the UPA being elected back, the extremely positive sentiments will boost the moods all over.

Yes, the issues of the burgeoning fiscal deficit, unemployment, the global crisis, rising food grain prices; all these issues remain. But with the UPA coming to power, what we will have is a continuity in the policies, we will now see privatisation taking off in a big way, the financial sector reforms, especially for the banking and insurance sector will be done on a war footing. FIIs, assured now by the political stability at the Centre will be coming back in droves, once again talking about “attractive valuations” in India. FDI inflows would take a leap. The first thing on the agenda after the Govt is sworn in would be the presentation of the Budget, sometime around June or early July. And this would be a Budget to really look forward to!

All in all, this is a fantastic verdict. This is celebration time for India after a really very long time. Enjoy the moment and get set for the stock market ride when the market opens on Monday!
Source: www.premiuminvestments.in (By Ruma Dubey)

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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