Wednesday, January 21, 2009

More Power to Power

In an otherwise dull and down market yesterday, towards the fag end of the session, CERC came in as a small blessing. Thanks to CERC, the BSE Power Index ended up higher by 2%, led by gains in NTPC (4.7%), Tata Power (4.5%) and Power Grid (11.5%). This once again reiterates the fact that power is one sector in India, which is indeed recession proof. Investments in the power sector just cannot stop as there is the very real fear of India getting unplugged due to power scarcity. And when the growth rate as such is slowing down, surely lack of power need not add more fuel to the fire.

CERC or Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, is India’s apex power sector regulator which includes Power Grid, NTPC, Neyveli Lignite and it took everyone by surprise by announcing tariff regulations. It upped return on equity on power companies to 15.5% from the existing 14%, applicable on new projects from 2009 to 2014. There is also a reward for projects being completed on schedule – an additional 0.5% RoE, which is then at 16%. These tariffs are applicable to all private companies, be it under state or center, and it is now upto the state regulators to implement these new tariffs.

Profits will increase as this now provides an additional incentive to produce more power. The message being sent by CERC is that the more you produce, the more you will earn. So this method of providing incentive for the performance, rewarding efficiencies is an extremely well thought of strategic move. With interest going down on one hand and the CERC giving higher RoE, the new tariff’s does make the investment in the power sector more attractive.

And this move, to provide incentives and rewards to performers is expected to lure in more investment in the power sector. We do have companies investing in the sector, but the number of companies which show interest in the sector and are ready to invest could certainly go up further.

CERC has stated that the RoE will now be pre-tax, for which the base rate of 15.5% would be grossed up through the applicable tax rate for the company. This will, in turn, translate into nearly 23.5% post-tax return on the equity as against 21% previously. This will mean that new power generation companies which enjoy tax holidays would now get more advantage over the older power companies.

The AAD or Advance Against Depreciation has been removed but depreciation rates have been reworked to take care of the repayment of debt. CERC has increased depreciation rates to 5.28% from 3.6% for thermal power plants and 2.5% for hydro power plants.
These tariff norms would be applicable in deals which do not involve any competitive bidding like the UMPPs. Instead it would be applicable to deals which are negotiated between the power generation company and the state Govt. But yes, it will be applicable to projects of the private sector which have got the mega power project status. CERC has also mandated that only firms that have an availability level of at least 85% are eligible for the guaranteed ROE.
What does this mean for the power companies? This would naturally mean a boost to the bottomlines. Neyveli Lignite has stated that due to the change in the tariff norms, it could see an additional profit for the future projects seen at Rs.32.50crore. NTPC’s profits are expected to go up by another 12-15%. The bottomline of Power Grid is expected to show a surge of around 5-6% once these tariffs get implemented.

And what about the likes of Tata Power and Reliance Power? They will have to depend on the state govt regulator, the State Electricity Board to implement these changes.
Source: sptulsian.com (By Ruma Dubey)

Intraday Trading Calls for 21st January

Indian Stock Market may open Negative with gap down but smart recovery expected from lower levels and a flat closing expected.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

REL CAPITAL

Buy Above

420.10

428.65

440.00

Sell Below

414.35

406.20

395.00

ALSTOM PROJECTS

Buy Above

250.70

256.20

262.00

Sell Below

246.40

241.60

236.00

TATA STEEL

Buy Above

196.80

204.20

210.00

Sell Below

193.70

189.15

184.00

BANK OF BARODA

Buy Above

242.60

248.35

255.00

Sell Below

238.20

234.10

228.00

CAIRN INDIA

Buy Above

154.50

158.20

163.00

Sell Below

151.40

148.35

145.00

VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES

Buy Above

96.20

100.10

105.00

Sell Below

93.70

90.45

86.00

GSS AMERICA INFO

Buy Above

106.20

111.35

116.00

Sell Below

103.50

99.10

95.00


OTHERS FOR INTRADAY: COMPACT DISK INDIA LTD. (526141) CMP Rs. 38/- & HIND OIL EXPLORATION (500186) CMP Rs. 60/-

GOOD LUCK

Stock Idea: Visaka Industries Ltd. (VIL)

Visaka Industries Ltd. (VIL) (Code: 509055) (Rs.39.90) is a large player in cement products and synthetic yarn and is poised for a jump in profitability on the back of further expansion. VIL was originally incorporated as Visaka Asbestos Cement Products in June 1981 and acquired its present name in August 1990. The other group companies are Visaka Cement Industry, Venus Tobacco Company and VST Natural Products. In 1997-98, its asbestos unit at Paramathi Velur in Tamil Nadu commenced commercial production. Its present capacity of asbestos cement products is 5,44,000 TPA. Employing state-of-the-art Twin Air-jet technology from Murata, Japan, VIL's spinning mill strategically utilises German and Indian technology. VIL was promoted by Dr. G Vivekanand. By adhering to stringent quality control and adhering to quality systems, VIL won the ISO 9002 certificate in 1995 and Export House status in 2001. Its Asbestos Cement Division contributes 80% of the total revenue and reported an operating profit of Rs.41 cr. During H1FY09 as against Rs.13.5 cr. in H1FY08 and Rs.29 cr. for FY08. Its Synthetic Yarn Division contributes nearly 20% of sales. Despite the sustained stress in the industry, this division continues to do well. It reported an operating profit of Rs.7.2 cr. during H1FY09 as against Rs.8.1 cr. in H1FY08 and Rs.10.4 cr. in FY08.

VIL has already disposed off its loss making Garment Division and wrote off Rs.7.3 cr. in FY08. During FY08, Shakti Roofings Pvt. Ltd. was merged with VIL w.e.f. 1 April 2006. Accordingly, VIL allotted 20,07,995 shares to the shareholders of Shakti Roofings, as per the agreed swap ratio of 2.29:1 on 19 June 2007. During FY08, VIL's sales moved up by 3% to Rs.433 cr. but net profit declined by 67% to Rs.7.7 cr. over FY07. During Q2FY09, sales advanced by 27% to Rs.121 cr. while net profit jumped to Rs.7 cr. from net loss of Rs.2.7 cr. over Q2FY08. During H1FY09, VIL's sales rose by 31% to Rs.294 cr. and net profit by 558% to Rs.21.7 cr. In textiles, VIL has been a focused synthetic blended yarn player, supplying to customers in the UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Turkey. Its exports in FY08 amounted to Rs.48 cr. VIL started the commercial production of reinforced building boards from its newly commissioned unit in Miryalaguda having a capacity of 48,000 TPA from May 2008.This unit was set up at a cost of Rs.36 cr. and for which the funds were partly raised through a QIP placement in January 2007. It is also setting up another 48,000 TPA a month Reinforced Building Board Sandwiched Panel Unit in Miryalguda, Andhra Pradesh. VIL had allotted 3 lakh equity shares and 9 lakh convertible equity share warrants in 2007 at Rs.135 per share to Sandadi Homes Pvt. Ltd., which were subscribed into an equivalent number of equity shares of Rs.10 each, for cash at Rs.136 per share. This was for funding its asbestos cement expansion. VIL's equity capital is Rs.15.9 cr. and with reserves of Rs.143 cr., the book value of its share works out to Rs.100. Its debt:equity ratio is 1.2 and the value of its gross block is Rs.307 cr. Promoters hold 36.7% in the equity capital, foreign holding is 3.7%, Andhra Pradesh government holds 4.1%, PCBs hold 25.4%, institutions hold 1.3% leaving 28.8% with the investing public. Sandwiched panels are in demand for use as partition material. The Reinforced Building Board Sandwiched Panels are made of two fibre-reinforced cement sheets enclosing a lightweight core. These panels are cheaper than masonary/wood partitions, easier to fix and take lesser time for installation.

VIL has entered into an agreement with an Australian company for technology transfer for, Reinforced Building Board Sandwiched Panels. The government's thrust on rural development is likely to heighten activity in the rural housing sector, which will lead to higher demand for asbestos-based roofing sheets. Its demand has been growing considerably and grew by 16.5% in FY08. Asbestos sheets are a cheaper alternative to galvanized steel sheets, which are also used in housing. Based on the current going and with user industries doing well, VIL is all set to post 33% higher sales of Rs.575 cr. In FY09. Net profit, too, will rise to Rs.35 cr., which would give an EPS of Rs.22. With major expansion in cement sheets and the commencement of its sandwiched panel unit, VIL is expected to post a

turnover of Rs.750 cr. by 2010 with net profit of Rs.45 cr., which would give an EPS of Rs.28. The shares of VIL are currently traded at Rs.40 discounting the estimated EPS of Rs.22 for FY09 by 1.9 times and projected FY10 EPS of Rs.28 by only 1.5 times. Applying a conservative P/E of 3 on its estimated FY09 EPS of Rs.22, the share is likely to cross the Rs.66 in the short-term and Rs.84 in the medium-to-long-term. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.118/40.

Source: Internet (moneytimes)

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