Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Analyst Views: PowerGrid, Balrampur Chini

Anil Manghnani of Modern Shares & Stock Brokers is of the view that one can buy Power Grid between Rs 92-100 with a stoploss below Rs 92.
Manghnani told CNBC-TV18, "Since Power Grid is still a trading market I think an absolute trading just for the day will be Rs 105 but I will extend that to about Rs 113 as a leading target, and the range to buy would be Rs 100-92 with a stoploss below Rs 92. It has held that on last couple of occasions and if the market can breakout all these above levels and start moving up higher then I think from a more medium-term point of view target could also be Rs 125-126."
He further added, "One benefit of Power Grid is that it has been added to the Nifty. We can see the effect that JP Associates had when that was announced that it is added on the Sensex. So maybe when the date comes closer even Power Grid would see a lot of Nifty based fund having to buy into this stock just to do their portfolio."


Technical Analyst, Rajat K Bose is of the view that above Rs 104, Balrampur Chini Mills can touch Rs 127. He is optimistic about the sugar space.
Bose told CNBC-TV18, "I would say that Balrampur definitely looks pretty good. In fact I was expecting this not to go below Rs 78 but on Monday it bottomed out at Rs 76.10 and then bounced back very strongly. If it were to move above Rs 104 then the target would be something like Rs 127."
He further added, "Shree Renuka is perhaps the most high beta stock in the sugar space and it shows quite a bit of strength and it can actually move faster but there you must be prepared that it actually shows a lot of volatility."
"On the other hand for Bajaj Hindustan, above Rs 245 the next target would be something like Rs 265-270. All of these stocks- I continue to believe that over the medium-term you would actually get decent gains if I have given you a projection of Rs 127 for Balrampur similarly even down south Sakthi, Ponni Sugars (Erode) those stocks are also likely to do well. So, I am pretty much optimistic about the sugar space and I hold a couple of sugar stocks in my portfolio including Balrampur."

Markets Today

The markets ended in green with moderate gains. Global markets provided strong cues as Asian markets closed higher and European markets were trading with good gain. The broader markets outperformed the benchmark indices giving markets positive breadth. The BSE capital goods and realty indices surged ahead of the other sectoral indices.
Sensex closed up 199.43 points or 1.25% at 16123.15, and the Nifty up 65.50 points or 1.36% at 4865.90.
About 2222 shares have advanced, 778 shares declined, and 51 shares are unchanged.
The BSE Midcap Index ended at 6,992.84 up 3%.
The BSE Smallcap Index ended at 8,559.10 up 3.7%.
The BSE Bankex was up 0.6% at 8,487.24. IOB, ICICI Bank, Centurion bank, Axis closed in green.
The BSE Capital Goods Index closed at 14,060.65 up 5.4%. Suzlon, Reliance Infra, Siemens, Triveni Engineering closed higher.
The BSE Auto Index closed at 4,669.34 up 0.3%. Bajaj Auto, Tube Investment, Apollo Tyres, Escorts closed higher.
The BSE Metal Index closed at 16,072.74 up 1.7%. JSW Steel, Jindal Steel, Jindal Stainless, Hind Zinc closed higher
The BSE FMCG Index closed up 0.7% at 2,204.41. Colgate, ITC, Nestle, Dabur ended higher
BSE Oil and Gas Index closed at 10,560.64 up 3%. BPCL, HPCL, IOC, Reliance Natura, GAIL ended higher.
The BSE IT Index was at 3,548.78 down 0.6%. HCL, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Tech Mahindra closed lower.

Source: moneycontrol.com

Investment Idea: Divis Lab

The company’s main forte is its R&D, with the main focus on developing new processes for the production of Active Pharma Ingredients (APIs) & Intermediates. The company in a matter of short time expanded its breadth of operations to provide complete turnkey solutions to the domestic Indian pharmaceutical industry.
Divis also undertakes FTE/Contract Research on process development for discovering new compounds for leading MNCs across the world and partners with them for the supply of APIs. The manufacturing facilities started much later. It has four R&D centers and two pilot plants
The company’s first manufacturing plant came up on a 300 acre land at Hyderabad, and its second facility is at Visakhapatnam, on a 314 acre site. It has also set up a SEZ at Chippada in Visakhapatnam. It manufactures API's for generics, intermediates, chiral synthesis and carotenoids.
The company recently concluded a successful inspection by the US-FDA, without any observations, for its Unit-1 near Hyderabad. The purpose of this inspection was for product pre-approval and general cGMP (Current Good Manufacturing Practices). The fact that the company did not have a single negative factor mentioned against it in the process of inspection, bodes well. Hopefully we will soon hear the company having secured a USFDA approval for its products, which will mean exports will burgeon.
The manufacture of niche segments such as the peptides and carotenoids products are expected to dominate the earnings in the coming months. Peptide drugs are one of the emerging areas of drug discovery, mainly in cancer medicines, with Western companies completely outsourcing the peptide segment to Asia. Divi’s currently has exposure to around 90 peptide building blocks.
In case of carotenoids, which are basically pigments important in human nutrition as a source of vitamins and preventive agents for cancer and heart diseases, the company’s manufacturing facility has been put up at its Rs.102 crore SEZ. Its two 100% subsidiaries — Divi’s Laboratories (USA) Inc and Divi’s Laboratories Europe AG (Switzerland) are specifically constituted for marketing its nutraceuticals. This again is expected to be a major revenue earner for the company as the key production facilities have been set up recently.
The shareholding pattern of the company also instills a lot of confidence in the company. The promoters hold 53.54%. Institutions hold 29.47% of which 16.78% is held by FIIs like Merrill Lynch, Oppenheimer and JP Morgan. Public holding is just 17%, which is a very big positive in favour of the company.
Now the most interesting part is that 12.63% is held by mutual funds and of this 7.22% is held by Reliance Capital Trustee Company and 4.25% by HDFC Trustee Company. The fact that mutual funds have bought so heavily in the stock, reiterates the potential of the stock.
The financial performance of the company has been more than exuberant. For the third quarter ended 31st December 2007, on a YoY, the consolidated total income for the quarter grew by 90% at Rs.284.13 crore. Custom chemical synthesis vertical (where it provides custom-made compounds) witnessed over a 100% growth, and the generics bulk drugs business clocked nearly a 60% growth.
It earned a PAT of Rs.99 crore on a consolidated basis for Q3 ended 31st December, 2007, as against Rs.31.39 crore in Q3 FY07, an unbelievable rise of 215%. On an equity of Rs.12.91 crore, basic EPS on a face value of Rs.2 per share is at Rs.15.35 for Q3 FY08.
For the 9-month period of the current year, Divi’s earned a PAT of Rs.255 crore on income of Rs.764 crore as against a PAT of Rs.87 crore and income of Rs.482 crore during the corresponding period last year. EPS stands at Rs.39.
Going by the present trend, even on a conservative basis, the company is expected to post a consolidated turnover of around Rs.1000 crore and PAT of Rs.400 crore for the fiscal FY08. This means, that we are looking at a sure EPS of over Rs.60 for FY08.
With more income expected to come from its carotenoids unit, which is high margin, the company, for FY09 is expected to post a PAT of around Rs.600 crore, giving an EPS of over Rs.90 and this discounts the current price of Rs.1355 by just 15 times.
Pharma stocks have been relegated to the background since the past few months. It is only now that analysts and investors are realizing the value of these pharma stocks. Moreso, after the Union Budget of 2008-09, which has been very kind to the pharma units, especially those with R&D facilities. Excise duty was reduced on all pharma goods from 16% to 8% This cut in the duties is expected to benefit Divis further in the coming fiscal.
Currently quoted at Rs.1355, Divis is an excellent buy at this level for some sure 40-50% returns over the next 12 months.

Source: Sptulsian.com

Market Whispers

IDBI is a decent bet at Rs.96 as the same may show a rise to Rs.110 levels in the short to medium term.
Mundra Port may witness informed buying at Rs.600 levels and share looks a safe bet at the current levels.
Kumar Infra, a recently listed stock have grabbed contracts for new flyovers in Mumbai. The company is projecting a topline of Rs.450 crores and an EPS of Rs.22 for FY 09. Share now ruling at Rs.84 may soon touch three digit mark.
MRO Tek at Rs.59 looks a safe bet for the short term as share has potential to touch Rs.75 mark soon. The company is likely to have an EPS of Rs.10 for FY 09. Share has potential to touch three digit mark in the next 6 months.
Aban Offshore is recommended at Rs.3,470 for short term gain of about Rs.150 in the near term.
Buying is advised in Reliance Capital at Rs.1,335 levels for a short term rise of about Rs.150 to Rs.165.
Alembic Ltd. is recommended a risk free buy at Rs.46 in view of an EPS of close to Rs.10 for FY 08 and over Rs.12 for FY 09 for this pharma company.
Amara Raja Batteries is likely to move to Rs.200 in the near term, mainly on renewed buying interest of institutional investors. Share at Rs.185 makes a good short term buy.
Government has not agreed to continue with operations of old Hyderabad and Bangalore airports, post commencement of new airports on 16th March and 30th March respectively. Share of GMR Infra would come on radar of high net worth investors post starting Hyderabad airport on 16th March 08. Share at Rs 155.
Divis Lab at Rs.1,330 is recommended a safe bet for short to medium term. Share may cross Rs.1,500 mark by May 08.
Source: sptulsian.com

Intraday calls for 11th March

Market may see high volatility with positive bias. Midcap & Small cap may starts moving up now.
Today's Intraday Picks:
Cairn India, Bank of Baroda, RNRL, HDIL.
For details download the file by Click Here
Also keep watch on Videocon Industries, Mphasis BFL, Noidatoll Bridge.

Good Luck

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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