Monday, October 15, 2007

Investment Idea: Blue Bird

Blue Bird is a leading paper based notebook manufacturer as also manufactures files, perforated pads, registers and filler paper.

Indian stationery market is largely dominated by unorganized sector to the extent of 80%. Of 20%, held by the organized sector, 15% is held by large players and 5% by small players. Of this 15%, company has market share of 48% or about 7% of the total stationery market.

The company went public on 16-11-06 with its IPO, of 87.75 lakh equity shares of Rs.10 each, at Rs.105 per share. Share listed on 14-12-06, and closed below its issue price at Rs.92..

For FY 07, total income of the company was placed at Rs.454.93 crores, EBITDA of Rs.57.39 crores, PBT of Rs.41.73 crores and PAT of Rs.26.95 crores on equity of Rs.35 crores, resulting in an EPS of Rs.7.70. The company declared a dividend of 12% for the year. .

For quarter ending June 07, the company had achieved total income of Rs.129.59 croes, EBITDA of Rs.19.81 crores, PBT of Rs.12.62 crores and PAT of Rs.8.31 crores, giving an EPS of Rs.2.37 for the quarter. .

For FY 08, the company is expected to have a topline of Rs.600 crores. EBITDA of Rs.96 crores, PBT of Rs.60 crores and PAT of Rs.40 crores, which would result in an EPS of Rs.11 for FY 08. .

The company started its Indore unit on 17-09-07 with 6,656 sq. feet and Bangalore unit on 16-08-07 with 6,504 sq. feet which would increase its production from December 07 quarter. .

The company mobilized Rs.92 crores from IPO at Rs.105 per share, and Rs.12 crores from preferential allotment, by issuing 12.25 lakh shares on 30-10-06 at Rs.98 per share to India China Pre-IPO Equity (Mauritius) Ltd. .

The present equity is Rs.35 crores, which is held by the promoters, of 52.57%, FII 10.24% and rest with the public.
All the expansions of the company would get completed, in phases, between December 07 to March 08. Hence, FY 09 would be able to reap full benefits of expansions and hence the company would show a good growth of over 40% in FY 09 workings. .

Presently, the company is outsourcing its notebook, which would now be manufactured inhouse. Even, fresh infusion of funds would ease working capital pressure on the company. .

FY 07 of the company, did not see much growth in topline and bottomline. FY 07 total income was at Rs.455 crores against Rs.402 crores for FY 06 while PAT for FY 07 was at Rs.26.95 crores against Rs.25.12 crores of FY 06. This was not well received by the market. However, growth would be partly visible in FY 08 and to a great extent in FY 09.

The share is presently ruling at Rs.61, against its issue price of Rs.105 and book value of about Rs.55, as on 30-09-07. Considering an EPS of Rs.11, for FY 08, share is ruling at a PE of less than 6, which is about 4 times, if considered on FY 09 working.

Share can give about 30% return in the next 6 – 9 months, while downward risk is less than 10%. Even long term prospects of the company are good as this sector is traditionally enjoying a double digit PE multiples.
Source: www.sptulsian.com

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



free counter