Monday, January 12, 2009

Intraday Trading Calls for 12th January

Indian Stock Market may open Negative but some recovery expected in mid session with high volatility.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

STERLITE INDUSTRIES

Buy Above

275.60

282.15

290.00

Sell Below

271.40

266.45

260.00

HPCL

Buy Above

268.80

273.15

278.00

Sell Below

265.10

261.15

257.00

IVRCL INFRA

Buy Above

121.70

126.10

130.00

Sell Below

119.20

116.05

112.00

INDIABULLS REALEST

Buy Above

115.70

120.10

124.00

Sell Below

113.50

110.05

106.00

ITC

Buy Above

170.80

174.20

178.00

Sell Below

167.60

164.15

160.00

SUN TV

Buy Above

171.70

176.15

181.00

Sell Below

168.70

164.20

160.00

PUNJ LLOYD

Buy Above

116.20

121.25

127.00

Sell Below

114.20

111.10

107.00

Short to Med Term Delivery Buy:

Risky Traders may Buy at CMP and at decline: Satyam Computers (500376) CMP Rs. 23/- Target Rs. 40-50/-.

GOOD LUCK

Friday, January 9, 2009

Satyam Computers-

B. Ramalinga Raju, Chairman of Satyam Computers, after having made a confession, by his letter dated 07-01-09, leaves one question, still unanswered, inspite of the company’s press conference, as also after an initial probe by Registrar of Companies and SEBI, whether Rs.5,000 crore exist in the company’s books or not?
On one hand, we have audited balance sheet of the company, as at 31-03-08, which states that the company had a cash and bank balances of Rs.4,502.42 crores as also accrued interest on fixed deposits, of Rs.272.50 crores. Details of Rs.201.19 crores held by the company, with non-scheduled banks, have been given in the balance sheet, which runs in 58 branches of various foreign banks, spread across the globe, Details of balances held with various scheduled banks, are not required to be given. However, Rs.965.70 crores were lying in current account and Rs.3,325.24 crores in Deposit accounts of various scheduled banks, as at 31-03-08. Incidentally, these scheduled banks had a balance of Rs.424.29 crores in current account and Rs.3,371.26 crores in deposit account, as at 31-03-07. Scheduled Bankers of the company were only three banks, which are Bank of Baroda, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank.
It may be noted that the balance sheet of the company, as at 31-03-08 and as at 31-03-07 have been audited by the Price Waterhouse (PWC) and signed by Srinivas Talluri, Partner of PWC bearing membership number 29864.
As a part of audit process, it is an elementary and mandatory work, to check the cash and bank balances, as also to see bank reconciliation statements, having prepared by the client, by the Auditors. In this case, list of 54 banks have been given, for balances, held by the company, with non-scheduled banks. Similarly, a list must have been prepared, (which must be in possession of he Auditors and Accounts Department of Satyam) of the balances, held in all accounts, by the company, with scheduled banks.
We doubt that an auditor, like standing of PWC, must not have asked or verified or collated the bank balance details? If really they have not, they have no right to exist and partner of PWC, Srinivas Talluri should be held more guilty than Ramalinga Raju.
But if we presume, the bank balances of Rs.4,502 crores, were existing on 31-03-08 (Rs.3,991 crores on 31-03-07), which is most likely, than it has been siphoned off, embezzled by Raju between 01-04-08 to 07-01-09.
However, Raju, by his letter dated 07-01-09 had stated that cash and bank balances are inflated by Rs.5.040 crores. Even the acting CEO of Satyam, Ram Mynampati (Earlier President & Whole Time Director) could not confirm whether this balance exists or not, as at 31-03-08 and as of date.
However, we all are trying to believe the statement of Raju, that no cash and bank balance exists, How can we believe Raju, who has proved to be a fraud and why don’t we verify its authenticity, with the bankers of the company?
It is very essential to know or track, upto which point of time, these bank balances were existing. This can be verified by taking these steps:--
1) Call for audit working papers from PWC and ask for break-up of deposits held with scheduled banks, as at 31-03-08 and as at 31-03-07. This will be a limited enquiry, which can very well be initiated by an authority and would not be held as breach of client confidentiality agreement of PWC.
2) Call for similar details from accounts department of Satyam. Even a junior accountant would be able to give this or same must be existing in working paper files, in soft and hard formats, with Satyam.
3) On getting these details, go and check with those banks, whether balances as stated therein, were existing at any point of time?
If these balances were never existing at any point of time, PWC is more responsible then even Raju and held them responsible. If these balances were existing at some point of time, track them till they got embezzled, siphoned off or wiped off.
It may be possible, that after 31-03-08, Raju may have pledged Deposit receipts with respective scheduled banks to draw overdraft against those deposit receipts for the benefit of his personal accounts or for his associate companies. If it has happened, such scheduled banks should be held responsible along with Raju and not PWC.
If we are able to track the point, where, Rs.5,000 crores of company’s bank balances have been embezzled, it would be easy and possible to track the operating performance, profitability ratios etc. of Satyam, very easily.
It may also be noted that as per Raju’s confession, he has stated that liabilities are understated to the extent of Rs.1,230 crores. This means, either expenses of Satyam were not booked in the books of the company or they were paid and discharged by Raju from his personal sources, so as to keep profit of Satyam inflated.
Also, overstated debtors, by Rs.490 crores, as per confession of Raju, largely represents, overbilling of Q2, to the extent of Rs.588 crores. This can easily get checked, as scrutinisation of one quarter billing is possible.
Similarly, accrued interest of Rs.376 crores, is non-existent, as alleged by Raju, could happen only if Deposits were not existing with the scheduled banks as at 31-03-08 and 31-03-07. In that situation, if deposits were not existing on those dates, PWC should be held responsible with Raju.
Hence, to ascertain the truth of the alleged overstatement of profits of Satyam, by Raju, it is necessary to track this short route of bank balance transactions, by which truth will come out on surface.
So why it is taking so long, by all the investigation agencies to do so? Why no statement is being given by anyone on the existence of bank balances? Whether they were existing as at 31-03-08 and as of date?
The total networth of Satyam is estimated to be Rs.8,000 crores, of which about 60% is represented by cash & bank balances. So if these bank balances were void ab initio or were non-existent, from day one, it is a great lapse of audit procedures as also lapses on part of board members, audit committee members and executives of the company.
Alternatively, if it vanished after 31-03-08, story will be totally different, and bankers of Satyam would be responsible and then, Satyam can also be held to be having great value.
Source: sptulsian.com (By S P Tulsian)

Intraday Trading Calls for 09th January

Indian Stock Market may open Negative but some recovery expected in mid session with high volatility.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

SHIV-VANI OIL

(522175)

Buy Above

125.05

130.10

135.00

Sell Below

121.70

118.15

114.00

HPCL

Buy Above

266.20

270.45

275.00

Sell Below

262.40

258.15

254.00

HDIL

Buy Above

111.80

115.20

120.00

Sell Below

108.40

104.15

100.00

JP Associates

Buy Above

72.60

75.15

78.00

Sell Below

69.80

66.50

62.00

HUL

Buy Above

252.50

256.10

259.00

Sell Below

250.10

247.25

244.00

IDFC

Buy Above

63.20

65.10

68.00

Sell Below

61.40

59.05

56.00

PUNJ LLOYD

Buy Above

140.10

145.15

150.00

Sell Below

136.45

132.10

128.00

Short to Med Term Delivery Buy:

Buy at CMP and at decline also: Rajesh
Exports (531500) CMP Rs. 23/- Target Rs. 38-45/-.

GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Intraday Trading Calls for 07th January

Indian Stock Market may open positive but remains very volatile throughout the day today.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

SHIV-VANI OIL

(522175)

Buy Above

140.05

145.40

150.00

Sell Below

137.40

134.20

130.00

CAIRN INDIA

Buy Above

180.80

185.45

190.00

Sell Below

177.90

174.25

170.00

BARTRONICS

(532694)

Buy Above

98.20

102.15

107.00

Sell Below

95.50

92.15

88.00

ZYLOG SYSTEMS

Buy Above

101.70

106.45

112.00

Sell Below

99.20

96.05

92.00

ROLTA

Buy Above

133.80

138.15

142.00

Sell Below

131.20

127.35

122.00

BANK OF BARODA

Buy Above

290.70

298.15

305.00

Sell Below

287.40

282.65

275.00

PUNJ LLOYD

Buy Above

162.60

166.80

172.00

Sell Below

159.50

156.20

151.00

Short to Med Term Delivery Buy:

Buy at CMP and at decline also: Rajesh
Exports (531500) CMP Rs. 26/- Target Rs. 38-45/-.

GOOD LUCK

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Multibagger: Shiv-Vani Oil & Gas Exploration

Multi Bagger: Shiv-Vani Oil & Gas Exploration Recommended Price 140.00
PN Vijay, Portfolio Manager Report Dated: Jan 01, 2009
Company Profile:Incorporated in 1989, Shiv-Vani has rapidly evolved to emerge as a key player in the upstream sector of the hydrocarbon industry. It went public in 1993. Headquartered in New Delhi, the company offers a wide spectrum of services in the field of oil and natural gas exploration and production. It provides short-hole drilling services to ONGC and it is globally recognized for its proven expertise in exploration, production and allied services. It provides a complete suite of onshore activities and offshore operations. It is the only integrated CBM (Coal Bed Methane) services provider in India and successfully pioneered horizontal and directional drilling in the country to enhance CBM procurement.Financial Position:In Financial year ending 31st Mar 08 (company has changed the year to 31st March from 2008), Shiv-Vani’s net revenue grew by an impressive 107.33% from Rs 276.8 crore to Rs 574 crore (15 Month ending 31st December 2006. This was due to high order inflows during the period, which was supported by increased fleet base and high realizations. The EBIDTA grew by 129.2% to Rs 222 crore. The net profit also increased by 190% to Rs 107.5 crore from Rs 37 crore. Even though the interest costs and total expenses in FY’08 were higher, the net profit showed excellent improvement due to high operational income. The expenses and raw material cost as a percentage of sales declined in 2008. Other operational expenses as a percentage of sales also showed a decline during the period under review.During this financial year also, Shiv-Vani has continued its growth trajectory. For the second quarter FY’09 net sales grew by 92.4% to Rs 187.24 crore from Rs 97.34 crore in the second quarter FY’08. The EBIDTA also showed an increase of 148% to Rs 90.81 crore. The net profit increased by 140.5% to Rs 47.58 crore from Rs 19.78 crore.FCCB Conversion:The entire FCCBs (Foreign currency Convertible Bonds) issue of USD 55 million (except USD 0.5 Million equivalent to 500 Bonds were redeemed) got converted into 92,08,356 Equity Shares. As on 31st March 2008, there were no outstanding FCCBs for conversion/ redemption. Due to conversion of FCCBs, the net worth of the Company has increased by Rs 250.31 crore during the period. The company has allotted 60,00,000 warrants on 29th March, 2008, convertible into equal number of Equity Shares in the company within 18 months from the date of allotment.The shareholders funds stood at Rs 655 crore as on 31st March 2008. The secured loans and the unsecured loans are Rs 732 crore. The Debt equity is more than 1.
Investment Positives: Shiv-Vani is the biggest private sector rig owner & operator in India specializing in onshore and offshore operations. It has lined up a fleet of 21 onshore rigs (one of the largest in India after ONGC), four seismic data acquisition equipment; four crew boats; seven compressors; 233 drilling rigs and 425 logistic support vehicles. It is one of the few companies in India to own an onshore rig equipped with Top Drive System.Shiv-Vani has joined hands with the Energy Sector world leaders in Russia, USA, China, Malaysia, UAE, Canada, Germany and other countries.It has an order book of Rs 4800 crore out of which Rs 4100 crore is executable over a three-year period. For executing this order book, the company is likely to incur a capex of Rs 600 crore in FY09. It has enough funding for this.Rise in the prices of rig in the coming years will help the company to earn more revenues in its contracts as it has acquired rigs at lower prices.
Concerns: Weakening of the Rupee and delay in order execution will affect profitability. But the Company has an excellent track record in executing orders.The somewhat high level of debt raises some concerns though the FCCBs have all got converted.
During the early months of 2008 Shiv-vani outperformed Nifty. The fall in the price of Shiv-Vani was less than the fall in Nifty and the rise in the price of the stock was greater than the Index. From September the stock has fallen to a great extent, making the share undervalued. Taking into account the prospects of the company the share is a good buy at the current price.
Valuation: Shiv-Vani has shown a superlative financial performance for the FY’08. It is expected to have an annualized EPS of around Rs 43.36 per share for FY09. At CMP of Rs 140, it trades at an attractive P/E of 3.23. The PEG ratio comes to 0.023. We recommend the stock as an excellent investment with a target price of Rs 400 in 12 months.
Source: Internet (Poweryourtrade.com)

Stock Idea: Ahluwalia Contracts India

Ahluwalia Contracts India has been in the limelight yesterday. Its stock price was up locked at the 5% upper limit and it ended the day at Rs.33.70. Investor fancy was back on this counter on news that it has bagged orders worth Rs 394.01 crore. And post this order, its order book stands at Rs 4150 crore as on 31 December 2008, which is nearly 5 times its sales in the year ended March 2008.
This is being viewed by the analysts as a great news and reflects very good going for the company in the coming fiscal. These projects are to be executed over a period of 24 months so this naturally means that in FY10, the company will have a robust growth and the future looks bright.
The going has been good for the company. In the second quarter ended 30th September 2008, the company posted a very healthy 60.5% rise in net sales on a YoY. EBITDA was up 45% and PAT grew 19% at Rs. 14.52 crore. The company's current equity is Rs 12.55 crore. Face value per share is Rs 2. The revenue guidance for FY10, based on the back of the order book looks promising a growth of 40% is expected in the topline.
This Delhi based company is engaged in constructing wide range of structural buildings such as healthcare facilities, hotels, educational institutions, information technology parks and corporate office premises. Despite the slowdown in the sector, the company is poised to do well and this change in fortune is on the back of this huge order which has come in yesterday. Stay invested.
Source: sptulsian.com

Intraday Trading Calls for 06th January

Indian Stock Market may open positive but profit booking expected at higher levels, so a flat closing expected.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

HDIL

Buy Above

143.60

148.25

154.00

Sell Below

140.05

136.45

132.00

ORCHID CHEMICAL

Buy Above

106.70

111.35

116.00

Sell Below

103.50

100.05

96.00

ZEE ENTER

Buy Above

152.80

157.25

162.00

Sell Below

149.70

145.60

141.00

ADLABS FILMS

Buy Above

203.60

208.45

215.00

Sell Below

199.40

195.15

190.00

APTECH

Buy Above

102.70

107.20

112.00

Sell Below

99.35

96.00

92.00

ICSA

Buy Above

150.80

156.25

162.00

Sell Below

148.35

144.25

140.00

ROLTA

Buy Above

128.20

133.45

138.00

Sell Below

125.15

121.35

116.00

Short to Med Term Delivery Buy:
Buy at CMP and at decline also: Rajesh Exports (531500) CMP Rs. 26/- Target Rs. 38-45/-.
GOOD LUCK

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



free counter