Stock Idea: ASHOK LEYLAND

The passenger car segment had started showing improvement much before it percolated down to the commercial vehicles or HCV segment. But since the last 3 months, the trend has been positive in HCVs and the best sign of recovery was seen last month. Ashok Leyland sold 4,695 units in Nov 09’, up 103.5% from 2,307 units it sold in Nov 08’.
The numbers for second quarter ended 30th Sept 2009 clearly indicates that the worst seems to be over the company. It showed a 31.8% rise in its Net Profit despite a 15.7% decline in sales revenue. During the period there was a 17% drop in vehicles volume. What really helped boost the net profit was the other income component of Rs.23.79 crore. It also reduced cost by 21% on a YoY and lower number of working days also helped.
The company has managed to bring down its inventory by introducing the cash and carry system. This enabled the company to bring down the total working capital from a level of about Rs 1,600 crore to about Rs 900 crore in Q2.
As the economy recovers, sale of commercial vehicles is only expected to improve. Looking ahead, the company expects to notch up a double digit growth rate. The company already has orders for around 5000 buses under the JNNURM scheme and 3,500 units from state transport undertakings. Its market share currently stands at 27% and by end of FY10, it expects the market share to improve to 30%.

Source: Internet (By S P Tulsian)

Intraday Trading Calls for 17th December

Change in Trading time from Friday, December 18, 2009
The Market will open at 9:00 a.m.
The trading will commence from 9:00 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. in BSE & NSE.

Now Both BSE and NSE have decided to postpone the 9 AM start in trading timing to 4th Jan 2010.

Indian Stock Market may open flat to positive and remains positive with very high volatility today.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME	TRIGGER	PRICE	TARGET 1	TARGET 2
CAIRN INDIA	Buy Above	268.20	273.40	280.00
	Sell Below	266.25	263.10	258.00
VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES	Buy Above	218.25	223.15	228.00
	Sell Below	215.20	210.30	205.00
HIND OIL EXPLO	Buy Above	261.35	266.45	272.00
	Sell Below	258.45	254.10	249.00
PETRONET LNG	Buy Above	72.60	75.10	78.00
	Sell Below	71.35	69.25	66.00
KPIT CUMMINS	Buy Above	126.70	130.60	135.00
	Sell Below	125.30	122.20	118.00
APTECH LTD.	Buy Above	183.65	188.40	194.00
	Sell Below	181.50	177.60	172.00
SASKEN	Buy Above	177.25	183.55	190.00
	Sell Below	175.15	171.35	167.00

Buy Tanla Solutions Ltd. (532790) CMP Rs. 58/- Short to Medium Term Target Rs. 95/-.
GOOD LUCK

Stock Idea: ITC Ltd.

The FMCG company has posted a good performance for Q2FY10 and what really helped was the improvement posted by cigarettes, FMCG Others, Agri and Paper & Packaging businesses. The hotel segment, as expected showed a dismal performance. De-growth in occupancies and average room rates persisted during the quarter and but for this, the growth would have been much better.
For the quarter, FMCG segment on a YoY showed the best growth in the topline at 69%, agri business grew 19%, paper business grew 13% but hotel showed a fall of 24%. QoQ, the growth in hotel is almost flat but at least the fall has stopped, heralding improvement in second half.
Net revenue on a YoY rose 12% and net profit surged 26%. But the real news to cheer was the margins. OPM rose at 38.17%, up from 36% sequentially and 34% on a YoY. NPM was at 23.24%, up 21% QoQ and 20.78% On YoY.
What comes as a surprise every time is that despite all the odds, the cigarette business has always managed to remain its biggest earner. Despite ban on smoking in public places and the persistent hike in duties, people continue to smoke and ITC earns.
The company is socially very active and has always been taking initiatives to help achieve sustainable growth. Its total investment in wind energy has been pegged at Rs.250 crore of which it has already spent Rs.100 crore in Tamil Nadu to meet the requirements of its Packaging business in Chennai. Its investment in wind energy is eligible for Carbon Credits under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, resulting in substantial cost savings. Stay invested.

Source: Internet (www.premiuminvestments.in by S P Tulsian)

Intraday Trading Calls for 16th December

Indian Stock Market may open flat to positive and remains positive with very high volatility today.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME	TRIGGER	PRICE	TARGET 1	TARGET 2
CIPLA	Buy Above	347.25	353.50	360.00
	Sell Below	343.05	337.50	332.00
VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES	Buy Above	217.50	222.45	228.00
	Sell Below	214.70	209.30	203.00
SUNPHARMA ADVANCE	Buy Above	85.25	88.50	92.00
	Sell Below	83.50	80.35	76.00
RENUKA SUGAR	Buy Above	216.55	221.30	226.00
	Sell Below	213.40	208.65	203.00
BALRAMPUR CHINI	Buy Above	136.25	140.10	145.00
	Sell Below	134.05	131.20	128.00
APTECH LTD.	Buy Above	180.60	185.35	191.00
	Sell Below	178.45	175.10	170.00
CAIRN INDIA	Buy Above	270.10	275.40	280.00
	Sell Below	267.20	262.55	258.00

GOOD LUCK

Q3 Advance Tax Numbers

The deadline for payment of the third instalment of the advance tax was today, December 15, 2009 and looks like, it has been a set of mixed bag. Advance tax payments are made by companies based on their internal estimate of the year’s profit. And looks like, many companies are expecting to celebrate this fiscal on healthier numbers.
As expected, the auto companies, currently speeding in third gear, have paid robust Q3 advance taxes. Tata Motors, which, last year this time was staring at a uphill road, and had paid no advance tax at all in Q3FY09, this third quarter, has paid Rs.100 crore. Bajaj Auto paid Rs.320 cr v/s Rs 105 cr (YoY) while M&M paid Rs 195 cr v/s Rs 4.5 cr (YoY).
The oil companies are clearly hurting a lot and the pain will be felt by the Treasury too! Indian Oil and BPCL have paid zero advance tax for Q3FY10.
The numbers from banks have been mixed, which is probably why the banking stocks faced some battering. ICICI Bank was the big disappointment; its outgo YoY dropped 52%. On the other hand, SBI did not disappoint and it remained the highest advance tax payer as always, at Rs.1800 crore v/s Rs.1700 crore (YoY). PNB, IDBI Bank and IndusInd Bank paid a very high Q3 advance tax. But this was more or less lost on the market which fixated only on ICICI Bank. Expected lower credit disbursals could be one big reason why some banks have kept the advance numbers for Q3 a bit subdued.
The collection from the cement sector has been good, indicating things have are on a sound ground. Grasim and Ultratech paid more but ACC showed a 12% drop on a YoY. Ambuja Cement kept the payment status quo at Rs.140 crore, same as what it had paid in Q3FY09.
India’s largest private sector company, Reliance Inds did not disappoint and it paid 89% more at Rs.850 crore v/s Rs.450 crore paid in Q3FY09.
The big FMCG company, HUL paid very well – it paid Rs.200 crore v/s Rs.155 crore on YoY. Till Q3, rural spending has held out and now with just one quarter to go, irrespective of how the rural spending pans out, HUL’s advance tax payment in current fiscal would surely be on a higher note.
The most robust number, in terms of YoY improvement has been from M&M, a 4233% rise and Century Textiles, showing a whopping 1533% rise. L&T posting a subdued tax outgo, though disappointing, is in line with the financial performance it has posted till now.
Irrespective of the subdued payments made by the banks, the overall picture does look good. The robust numbers clearly reiterates what the IIP numbers have indicated – the economy is doing well.
If we look at the total advance tax paid by companies for FY10, till Q3, the number far exceeds that paid in FY09. And that in itself is a huge positive. Probably that is what the markets need to concentrate on, rather than just the smaller picture of one quarter.
COMPANY Q3FY10 Q3FY09 %
Reliance Inds 850 450 89
ICICI Bank 301 625 (52)
Tata Motors 100 -
Tata Steel 650 260 150
Tata Chemicals 40 83 (52)
TCS 177 129 37
L&T 270 312 (13)
HDFC 320 280 14
Hindalco 100 40 150
Bank of India 102 370 (72)
Bank of Baroda 330 220 50
Dena Bank 65 60 8

SBI 1800 1700 6
Central Bank 138 163 (15)
IndusInd Bank 65 22 195
IDBI Bank 74 19 295
PNB 618 505 22
Asian Paints 120 45 167
Glaxosmithkline 85 67 27
Century Textiles 49 3 1533
Crompton Greaves 72 50 44
ACC 110 125 (12)
Grasim 150 75 100
Ultratech 90 65 38
Ambuja Cement 140 140 -
HUL 200 155 29
Bajaj Auto 320 105 205
M&M 195 4.5 4233
(Rs in crores)

Intraday Trading Calls for 15th December

Indian Stock Market may open flat to positive and remains positive with very high volatility today.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME	TRIGGER	PRICE	TARGET 1	TARGET 2
INDIA CEMENT	Buy Above	121.05	125.10	130.00
	Sell Below	119.75	115.60	112.00
MANGALAM CEMENT	Buy Above	138.25	143.15	148.00
	Sell Below	136.45	132.55	128.00
CEAT LTD	Buy Above	142.10	146.65	152.00
	Sell Below	139.40	135.70	132.00
RENUKA SUGAR	Buy Above	210.05	215.70	222.00
	Sell Below	207.35	203.10	198.00
APTECH LTD.	Buy Above	193.25	198.55	205.00
	Sell Below	191.20	187.35	182.00
NAGARJUNA CONSTRUCT	Buy Above	156.70	160.30	164.00
	Sell Below	155.35	152.10	148.00
CAIRN INDIA	Buy Above	271.50	276.35	282.00
	Sell Below	269.40	265.70	261.00

GOOD LUCK

Stock Idea: Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd— BUY—1100—INR
Sector — Pharmaceuticals (Bulk Drugs & Formulations)
Regd.Off.— 7-1-27, Ameerpeth, Hyderabad – 500016
Listed — NSE, BSE.
Company overview—
Company was incorporated on 2nd November 1985. Dr. K. Anji Reddy and his associates promoted company. Company established a subsidiary named “Dr. Reddy's Diagnostics Ltd.” for the manufacture of diagnostics kits. Company also formed a joint venture “Reddy Biomed Ltd.” with a Russian company for manufacturing and marketing formulation in Russia. Its diagnostics division has a technical collaboration with Board of Radiation and Isotope, technology for manufacture & marketing of radio immunoassay kits for the production of diagnostic and therapeutic recombinant protections. The Bio-technology has a technical collaboration agreement with Viral Therapeutics Inc. U.S.A. Company has a Critical care division to commercialize products from the research foundation and the first product to be marketed by the division was Miitotax an anti-cancer product used in the treatment of breast and ovarian cancer. Company has launched its first anti-cancer drug Mitotax (Paclitaxel) in 1998. The product is produced in-house at Dr. Reddy's Research Foundation (DRF) from the extracts of the yew tree and formulated in Hyderabad. Company has effluent treatment plant at its bulk pharmaceuticals manufacturing facility located at Bollaram Industrial Development Area. Company also started a new trend in the Indian pharmaceutical sector by installing a “satellite” discovery research laboratory in the United States. In April 2001 Company got listing in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Company merged “Zenovus Biotech Ltd.”, a wholly owned subsidiary to enhance its strength into biotech. Company has over 950 scientists working across the globe, around the clock. Company continues its relentless march forward to discover and deliver a breakthrough medicine to address an unmet medical need and make a difference to people’s lives worldwide.
Products & services—
Company manufactures and markets Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients, Finished Dosages and Biologics in over 100 countries worldwide, in addition to having a very promising Drug Discovery Pipeline. When Dr. Reddy’s started its first big move in 1986 from manufacturing and marketing bulk actives to the domestic (Indian) market to manufacturing and exporting difficult-to-manufacture bulk actives such as Methyldopa to highly regulated overseas markets. Dr. Reddy in stark contrast is known globally for its proven high quality-low cost manufacturer in delivering safe and effective pharmaceuticals.
Company’s product portfolio spans an impressive mix of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients, Generics and Branded Formulations as well as Biologics. In the API Segment Company manufactures Anti viral, Anti Hypertensive, muscle relaxant, Anti bacterial, Gastroprokinetic, Anti Thrombotic, Anti Fungal, Anti Histaminic, Anti Tussives, Anti inflammatory, Cardiovasculars, Anti Emetic, Nootopric, Anti ulcerant, Anti Histaminic, Anti Psychotic, Anti Convulsant, Quinolone, Anti Diarrheal, Gastroprokinetic, Anti Asthmatic, Anti Migraine, Anti Diabetic, Anti Depressant, Bronchodilator, etc. Company Markets Citalopram, Enalapril, Famotidine, Fluoxetine, Flucanozole, Ibuprofen, Oxaprozin, Ranitidine, Tizanidine and Ciprofloxacin in the USA market. Company supplies generics to the European and UK markets like Amlodipine Maleate, Bendroflumethiazide, Benzhexol (Trihexyphenidyl), Bisacodyl 5mg Tablets, Cetirizine Hydrochloride, Chlordiazeproxide, Chlorpromazine, Ciprofloxacin, Co-amilozide, Diazepam, Dipyridamole, Erythromycin, Fluconazole, Fluoxetine, Indometacin, Ketoconozole, Lamotrigine, Loratadine, Nitrofurantoin, Nizatidine, Omeprazole, Oxytetracycline, Pergolide, Piroxicam, Pravastatin, Prochlorperazine, Spironolactone, Sulfasalazine, Sumatriptan, Terbinafine, Trifluoperazine. Except the above company supplies Cetrine 10mg, Histalor 10, Ciprolet 250mg, Ciprolet 500mg, Sparflo, Stamlo 10mg, Stamlo 5mg, Enam 10mg, Resilo 25mg, Resilo 50mg, Reclide, Diavista 30, Zoran 150, Omez, Lostatin, Nise 100, Rafree 7.5, Ibuclin, Finast Tab to rest of the world. In the Biologics, company manufactures “GRAFEEL”. GRAFEEL regulates the production, maturation, and function of cells of the neutrophil lineage. GRAFEEL is used to treat cancer patients suffering from chemotherapy-induced neutropenia.
Recent Developments—
GlaxoSmithKline is in talks to pick up a 5% stake in Dr Reddy`s Laboratories (DRL) in order to strengthen its association with the Dr Reddy’s. The lines of the discussion suggest that the foreign company (GSK) may acquire fresh shares of DRL, which will impact the promoters shareholding marginally, and it may reserve the right of first refusal should the promoters decide to sell their stake in future.
Dr Reddy’s has received final approval from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) to manufacture and market Fexofenadine Hydrochloride; Pseudoephedrine Hydrochloride , in strengths of 60 mg and 120 mg. The said drug is an antihistamine and a decongestant. This medicine is used to treat or prevent symptoms of allergies.
Valuation—
Company is one of the leading players into Indian pharmaceuticals market. It derives more than 25% of its revenue from US markets. At current market price, stock is trading at 20.67 P/E multiple of its FY2010 estimated EPS. We recommend investors to buy “Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories” with Medium to long-term investment prospective.
Source: Internet (Valuenotes by Abhishek Jain)