Friday, December 19, 2008

Intraday Trading Calls for 19th December

Indian Stock Market may open flat to positive but profit booking expected at higher levels. But a positive closing expected today also.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

BANK OF BARODA

Buy Above

276.60

282.55

290.00

Sell Below

272.35

267.15

260.00

CENTRAL BANK

Buy Above

41.20

43.70

46.00

Sell Below

39.80

37.35

35.00

LNT

Buy Above

815.60

824.35

835.00

Sell Below

807.40

796.20

785.00

GSS AMERICA

Buy Above

141.25

146.35

152.00

Sell Below

137.30

133.45

128.00

HPCL

Buy Above

273.60

280.15

290.00

Sell Below

267.60

262.25

255.00

GSFC

Buy Above

73.80

77.10

80.00

Sell Below

72.35

70.10

67.00

ZYLOG SYSTEMS

Buy Above

103.75

108.55

115.00

Sell Below

100.40

96.25

92.00

Watch out for Fertilizers Stocks: Nagarjuna Fert., Chambal Fert., RCF, Coromandel Fert., GNFC

Short to Med Term Delivery Buy:

Buy NIIT LTD. (500304) CMP Rs.25/- Target Rs. 40.

GOOD LUCK

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Long Term Investment

HDFC : Fundamentally very sound company, Hold it & add at every dip

SBI : Dark Horse for Long term Investment

Maruti : Stock continue to be outperformed with attractive EPS

L & T : Excellent future with strong order book

Britannia : Defensive blue-chip available at very low priceri

* SBI (Code : 500112) : The largest domestic banker SBI, with 16 per cent market share, is amiming to up its share further. It is consolidating with its affiliate banks and unlocking its value which is beneficial for its investors. Recently, it merged SBS with itself. Rural and agricultural segments are an under penetrated market for the banking sector. SBI owns 13 per cent of the industry's total branches in rural areas. Around 70 per cent of its total branches are in the rural and semi-urban regions. It intends to improve its branch strength in this region to around 10,000 by 2010, backed by enhanced use of technology. Its insurance business is increasing rapidly. Financially, SBI is very much strong. Its total interest income and the net profits have grown by an average 12.5 per cent and 16.3 per cent respectively in the last 5 years. In the H1 of 2009, the net profit increased by 29 per cent, which is above its five years' average. In Q2, its advances increased at 37 per cent, which is much faster than in the whole last year's 23.5 per cent. It is continuously expanding its branches and ATM network. The stock is trading at around 9 times its estimated current year EPS. It is definitely a best buy at every decline.

* Maruti Suzuki (Code : 532500) : Maruti Suzuki has slashed prices by Rs. 6,500 for its top selling Maruti 800 small car to Rs. 23,000 for the premium SX4 sedan, a day after the Government reduced Cenvat by four percentage points. It also reduced price by Rs. 8000 for its largest selling car model-Alto. It has doubled the discount on its Wagon-R to Rs. 25,000 plus insurance. Thus it has given benefit of reduction in Cenvat to its custormers which will boost its sales in this difficult time. Also, the government has reduced petrol and diesel prices by Rs. 5 and Rs. 2 respectively which will indirectly help car companies, including Maruti. Experts say that this move will also help in reducing inflation. RBI has reduced Repo and Reverse Repo rate by 100 basis points which will make auto loans cheaper and therby drive the demand for Maruti cars. Government's stimulus package will also drive Maruti in top gear. At Rs. 516, Maruti trades atg about 9.3 times its current year's expected EPS which is attractive for this market leader. Accumulate.

* L & T (Code : 500510) : Engineering giant Larsen & Toubro is planning to foray into power generation and targets a capacity of 5000 MW in the coming years. The company has already signed MoU for two power projects with a total capacity of 3500 MW, in which L & T's share will be equivalent to 2000 MW. It also intends to invest around Rs. 4500 crore at Hazira near Surat, where it will build plants for super critical boilers and super critical turbines. It is a JV with Mitsubishi. It is also setting up a plant for forging and heavy casting at Hazira with an investsment of Rs. 2000 crore. The company is also planning to set up power plants having total capacity of 3000 MW. It will generage 10,000 jobs in five years, including 5000 in Surat alone. L & T has deferred its shipbuilding plans as there is slump in demand. It is a proper decision by its management. L & T stock has recovered almost 15 per cent in last 10 days which shows that it has been accumulated at every decline. Invest at every decline for long term.

* Britannia Industries (Code : 500825) : Britannia Industries is among the cheapest FMCG stocks, with its current market price of Rs 1,165 discounting trailing 12-month earnings by just 14 times. This is a steep discount to every other leading player in the FMCG space. A host of new product rollouts (iron fortified Tiger, Good Day Classic), expansion of the premium portfolio (Good Day and Treat), the positioning of NutriChoice as a snacking alternative and the launch of Nano packs at Rs 2 and Rs 5 price points have all helped revive Britannia's sales. Going ahead, an expanding cakes and risks portfolio (the business has doubled in two years), further expansion of the Daily Bread bakery business and new markets for Britannia's brands in West Asia and Africa (through acquired subsidiaries), offer growth opportunities. A moderation in wheat prices and sharp decline in global prices of vegetable oils and milk have now significantly moderated cost pressures. It is very much defensive blue-chip which is available at very cheap price. Buy. Buy more at decline.

* HDFC (Code : 500010) : The leading home loan company, HDFC will gain from the recent efforts of the RBI and the government to make money cheaper and more easily available. HDFC grew its loan book by a strong 25 per cent in the September 2008 quarter but the sentiment wasn't quite as weak then. So loan growth could slow down somewhat in the coming months. However, it now needs to set aside less capital for loans below Rs 30 lakh and also for some commercial loans. Moreover, loans below Rs 20 lakh will now be considered a part of the priority sector lending done by banks. This means banks can now lend more to housing finance companies, which, in turn, can lend to home buyers. CLSA estimates the two measures together would free up around 100 basis points of Tier I capital for HDFC. With money now likely to be cheaper than it was borrowing costs for HDFC will come down. So, overall, RBI's actions will make actions in HDFC also. Watch out.

Intraday Trading Calls for 18th December

Indian Stock Market may open Positive and remains positive for the day today with some volatility.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

INDIAN BANK

Buy Above

119.60

124.20

128.00

Sell Below

117.05

114.10

110.00

CENTRAL BANK

Buy Above

38.75

41.50

44.00

Sell Below

37.35

35.20

32.00

FUTURE CAPITAL

Buy Above

183.20

188.45

195.00

Sell Below

179.40

175.25

170.00

SATYAM COMPUTER

Buy Above

160.50

166.35

172.00

Sell Below

155.40

150.35

145.00

HPCL

Buy Above

248.80

254.35

260.00

Sell Below

245.30

241.20

236.00

HCL TECH

Buy Above

123.60

128.25

134.00

Sell Below

119.50

115.35

111.00

HDIL

Buy Above

150.55

155.35

160.00

Sell Below

147.60

143.35

138.00

Short to Med Term Delivery Buy:

Buy Indowind Energy (532894) CMP Rs.23/- Target Rs. 40.

Buy Balaji Telefilms (532382) CMP Rs. 71/- Target Rs. 100.

GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Intraday Trading Calls for 17th December

Indian Stock Market may open Positive but high volatility can be seen in today's trade.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

ALSTOM PROJECTS

Buy Above

270.60

278.25

285.00

Sell Below

265.40

260.20

255.00

VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES

Buy Above

126.80

132.45

138.00

Sell Below

123.20

119.20

115.00

EDELWEISS CAPITAL

Buy Above

302.70

310.50

320.00

Sell Below

297.60

292.35

285.00

INDIA INFOLINE

Buy Above

50.80

55.05

60.00

Sell Below

48.50

45.35

42.00

MOSER BAER

Buy Above

73.35

77.50

82.00

Sell Below

70.80

67.25

64.00

IDBI

Buy Above

69.35

72.15

75.00

Sell Below

67.50

65.15

62.00

AREVA T&D

Buy Above

176.20

182.35

190.00

Sell Below

172.40

167.25

162.00

Short to Med Term Delivery Buy:

BUY SATYAM COMPUTER (CMP Rs. 226) AT DECLINE FOR DELIVERY TARGET Rs. 275+.

GOOD LUCK

ADVANCE TAX

The Advance tax numbers are out for the quarter from October till December and going by the numbers, it not half as bad as we all had expected. From fears of advance taxes not coming in or more than halving, the figures that have come out, especially in today’s trying times is very encouraging. What brings some succor to the heart and once again reiterates the faith in the PSUs is the fact that they have kept up the momentum and it is private sector which has shown the dip. As we say time and again, the Govt can teach a lesson or two to USA about managing finances while we can learn many lessons about managing security in the country from the US.

Before we go ahead, it is pertinent to understand that advance tax is paid every three months, four times a year and in four instalments:
On or before the 15th June --- Not less than fifteen per cent.
On or before the 15th September--- Not less than forty-five per cent, as reduced by the amount, if any, paid in the first instalment.
On or before the 15th December --- Not less than seventy-five per cent, as reduced by the first and second instalments.
On or before the 15th March --- which is 100%, as reduced by the amount paid in the earlier instalments.

Hence the significance of the Advance Tax, as it is an indicator of the health of not just the company but is a reflection of the economy. Given the trying times, it was expected that figures for Oct-Dec quarter would show a dip but surprisingly, the Advance Tax numbers have been good. State Bank of India has emerged as the top tax payer for the third quarter with a 56% jump in the payment on a YoY at Rs.1700 crore. Bank of India showed a 76% jump at Rs.370 crore, Bank of Baroda paid 10% higher at Rs.220 crore and the highest jump was by Central Bank of India, up by a whopping 123% at Rs.163 crore. LIC Housing reported a 33% jump at Rs.44 crore.

The private sector banks have not had to so good. HDFC Bank, on a YoY showed a 10.7% dip in advance tax for the third quarter at Rs.250 crore. ICICI Bank also showed a marginal dip of 0.6% at Rs.470 crore. Indusind Bank reported a 10% rise in the payment at Rs.22 crore and HDFC showed a 30% jump at Rs.279 crore. Clearly, the PSU banks outweigh the private sector banks when it comes to advance tax payments in current Q3.

On the companies front, the story is not so good for India Inc. Reliance Industries showed a 15.22% dip in its advance tax payment for Q3FY08 at Rs.440 crore as against Rs.519 crore last years Q3. L&T showed a robust 73% rise , while Tata Chemcials showed a 46% rise, TCS showed a rise of 19% , Tata Steel showed a 69% drop, Tata Power paid 12% higher and Tata Sons showed a 72% dip. This means that to a large extent, the Tata group had a mixed bag.

Though other auto companies are yet to give their numbers, the going is expected to be tough, at least that is what the figures of M&M indicates, which for Q3FY08 has shown a shocking 93% drop in advance tax payments. Cement sector is also expected to take a hit and Ultratech showed a 53% drop. Numbers are expected to come from realty which would again be a eye sore. Ditto for steel. Pharma has turned in a negative collection and by the time the rest of the companies announce, it is sure to show a dip.

Despite this, like all of us, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) is also optimistic and does not feel that current figures are bad. It has infact not revised its direct tax collection target downward for the current fiscal, and it still remains at Rs 395,000 crore.
Q3 advance tax figures are very important as they indicate the earning ability of the company give the fact that they need to pay a whopping 75% of their estimated estimated tax liability for the year by December 15. So if a company shows a huge fall in the payment, it means that its bottomlines are under pressure. These figures will thus indicate which companies are in trouble and which are still holding their head above the water.
Source: sptulsian.com (By Ruma Dubey)

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Intraday Trading Calls for 16th December

Indian Stock Market may open Positive but high volatility can be seen in today's trade.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

ALSTOM PROJECTS

Buy Above

262.80

268.45

275.00

Sell Below

257.40

252.35

245.00

VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES

Buy Above

105.60

109.20

114.00

Sell Below

102.70

98.60

94.00

PYRAMID SAIMIRA

Buy Above

52.75

56.20

60.00

Sell Below

51.05

48.35

45.00

HCL TECH

Buy Above

105.80

112.20

118.00

Sell Below

103.40

100.05

96.00

ADHUNIK METALIKS

Buy Above

34.50

36.60

39.00

Sell Below

32.80

30.20

28.00

ROLTA INDIA

Buy Above

137.20

142.35

148.00

Sell Below

133.20

129.35

125.00

PURVANKARA

Buy Above

47.50

51.20

55.00

Sell Below

45.40

42.35

39.00

MULTIBAGGER CALL:
CHENNAI PETRO (500110) CMP Rs. 113/- Target Rs. 300 (Long Term).
GOOD LUCK

Monday, December 15, 2008

Stock Idea: Tata Chemicals

Net sales of the company for the second quarter ended 30th September 2008 was at Rs.4,661 crore compared to Rs.1,733 crore, an increase of 169%. EBITDA was up also by 169% at Rs.670 crore. Profit before exceptional items and tax was up by 120% at Rs.587 crore and PAT for the quarter was at Rs.278 crore compared with Rs.208 crore in Q2 FY 2008, up 34%.

Tata Chemicals maintained its leadership position in the domestic soda ash market and its sales volume during the quarter was up 25%. In the coming months, surplus Chinese enhanced production may put pressure on prices in Africa and Asia but this could be offset by the lower cost of production due to lower energy costs. The fall in demand in USA is being compensated to some extent by demand picking up in Latin American markets.

It maintains its leadership in branded salts and this market share rose to an all time high of 56%. In the agri-crop or fertilizers unit, revenues for Q2FY09 from the crop nutrition business were Rs.3,067 crore and its PBIT margins stood at 13%. Work on debottlenecking of the urea plant at Babrala is progressing on schedule. Regarding its fresh produce business, first collection cum distribution centre at Melerkotla, near Ludhiana is functional. Construction of the Ethanol plant at Nanded is almost complete and trial production is expected to begin soon.

Like all the old generation Tata companies, even here, the promoters stake is very low at 29.15%. Institutions hold 40.81%. Interestingly, Hindustan Unilever, which held a 2.36% stake in the company in Q1FY09, now in Q2 holds a 2.14% stake.

Currently quoted at levels of Rs.155-159, recovered from the low of Rs.116, stay invested and if it dips further, consider making long term investment.
Source: sptulsian.com

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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