Sunday, June 3, 2007

IPO Talk: Meghmani Organics

Dear friends, Investors with an appetite for risk can subscribe to the initial public offering (IPO) from Meghmani Organics being made in the price band of Rs 17-19 per share (face value Re 1). A consistent track record of financial performance and a well-diversified client base for pigments and agrochemicals suggest that the company can deliver secular earnings growth over the next few years. At the higher end of the price band, the offer is priced at about 9 times the likely earnings for FY-08. Despite reasonable earnings prospects, the lack of market fancy for stocks in this sector may curtail the scope for listing gains on this offer.
Meghmani Organics is raising Rs 102 crore through this offer to fund its working capital requirements, set up new manufacturing units for High Performance Pigments and agrochemical formulations, and invest in a subsidiary to finance a 3MW wind power plant. The company's current revenues are derived mainly from domestic as well as export sales of pigments (green and blue) and generic agrochemicals. Exports accounted for about three-fourths of sales in the latest financial year. The key clients for the pigments business are ink, paint and plastic manufacturers both in India and abroad. The company counts global majors such as the Flint Group and Paramount Colors among its clients for pigments and Micro Flo, Valent and FMC Corp as its agrochem clients.
Diversified revenue base:
Though Meghmani is only a mid-size player in the pigments and agrochemicals market, the company's revenue base appears well diversified both geographically as well as in terms of customers. The diversified client base ensures low reliance on individual customers (though some are large global players) and the geographic spread of sales reduces market- and currency-related risks.
The outlook for the pigments business appears strong in the light of the improving growth prospects for the paints and inks industry in the domestic as well as the global context.
Entry barriers to this business are relatively high by virtue of the company's specialisation and the customisation involved in the manufacturing process. The outlook for the generic agrochemicals business is less bright. Though the business offers scope for strong volume growth (India being a low-cost manufacturing base), it is subject to persistent pricing pressures. Generic products such as acephate, cypermethrin and imidachloprid, which are the key product lines for the company, have seen steady price declines in recent years.
Meghmani Organics on its part, has managed strong volume and sales growth over the past three years (sales have grown at a compounded annual rate of 23 per cent), despite the pricing pressures. The company's ability to sustain high revenue growth amidst rather sluggish market conditions and fairly intense competition in its businesses, suggests cost competitiveness. At the same time, operating profit margins have hovered at healthy 23-25 per cent levels. The profit growth has however lagged sales expansion, at 11 per cent annualised growth over three years. Though the company has managed strong volume growth, higher raw material costs (several inputs are linked to the crude oil basket) and declines in realisations in the agrochem business have tempered the profit rise.
From here, the company appears well-placed to deliver a 15 per cent earnings growth over the next couple of years, with the help of new manufacturing facilities, an improved product mix, a strong new product pipeline and reduced tax incidence. In the pigments business, it has 12 products at various stages of development. In the agrochemicals business, where the time and regulatory procedures involved in obtaining registrations are the key entry barrier, Meghmani already holds 90 registrations across 50 countries, with over 415 pending registrations. Expansion in the product portfolio would help the company sustain revenue growth and offset pricing pressures in its key businesses.
For the year ended March 2007, the company has managed net profits of Rs 40.7 crore (15 per cent growth) on net sales of Rs 470 crore (21 per cent). This translates into per share earnings of Rs 2.02 on the current equity base and Rs 1.60 on the fully diluted equity base (assuming pricing at the upper end of the band). The offer price, at Rs 19, dilutes trailing 12-month earnings by about 12 times. Despite the reasonable earnings prospects, the low valuation accorded to stocks of specialty chemical and agrochemical majors could be a constraint to significant price gains on this stock.(from Business Line)

IPO Talk: Nelcast

Dear friends, Investors with a two/three-year perspective can consider investing in the initial public offering (IPO) of Nelcast. In the Rs 195-219 band, the offer is priced at 11-13 times the likely FY-08 per-share earnings on the post-offer equity base. In the business of manufacturing casting components, Nelcast is likely to scale up its growth, given the increased demand for castings in both the domestic and foreign markets. It is also likely to benefit from its proposed increase in focus on exports and machined casts. This apart, its set of established clients such as Ashok Leyland, TAFE and TATA Cummins also lends confidence to its earnings growth prospects.
Investment rationale:
Nelcast, which derives more than 50 per cent of its revenues the commercial vehicles segment, could witness increased demand on the back of an expected growth in freight traffic and the proposed introduction of emission and loading norms. However, any slump in the growth of the interest rate-sensitive commercial vehicles industry may mute Nelcast's earnings.
In this context, Nelcast's decision to widen its product base towards small castings to cater to passenger cars and light commercial vehicles is a positive. This apart, the proposed increase in the manufacture of machined casts, aimed at 20-25 per cent of total production by the next fiscal year, could give a further fillip to the bottomline, as these products enjoy better pricing and margins.
On the export front, outsourcing of casting components is likely to remain buoyant, given the strict environmental norms, rising labour costs and shortage of skilled labour in markets such as the US and Europe.
Encouraged by this rising demand scenario, Nelcast proposes to dedicate about 25 per cent of its capacity (post-expansion) for exports. While Nelcast already has a presence in US through its subsidiary and supplies to Volvo Sweden through its Tier-I supplier, Arvin Meritor, the increased thrust on exports is likely to help it strengthen its presence in the global arena. Further, as exports enjoy better realisation, revenues should rise.For the financial year ended March 2007, the company reported a revenue growth of about 30 per cent to about Rs 350 crore. The earnings recorded a 182 per cent increase to about Rs 7 crore.On the operational front, margins expanded by about 5 percentage points to 25 per cent on the back of increased sales realisation and pruning of costs.The earnings per share on a fully diluted basis stood at about Rs 11 for FY-07.
Objects of the issue:
The issue proceeds will be used to fund the expansion and modernisation of production facilities at both the units of Nelcast. The company plans to increase capacities from about 102,000 tonnes to about 120,000 tonnes by FY-08 and an additional 30,000 tonnes by FY-09.
Concerns:
While Nelcast's decision to increase its focus on exports is a positive, its ability to source orders from global players could be crucial. Our concern stems from the increased competition in the export market from both the domestic and Chinese players. This apart, since most of the existing players in the domestic market are on an expansion mode, it could lead to an excess supply scenario, which could cap Nelcast's earnings.
Offer details:
The offer is open from June 4 to June 8. The company seeks to raise about Rs 95 crore through this offer. Karvy Investor Services and Bigshare Services Private Limited are the lead manager and registrar to the issue respectively.(from Business Line)

Friday, June 1, 2007

Market This Week

Sensex up 1.6%;
Nifty up 1.1%,
CNX Nifty Junior up 2%
CNX Midcap Index up 1.8%;
BSE Small Cap Index up 3%
BSE Cap Goods Index up 6.8%; L&T up 15%, ABB up 4.5%, BHEL up 4%
BSE Auto Index up 3.4%; Hero Honda up 5.5%,M&M up 4%,Bajaj Auto up 3%
BSE Healthcare, Bank Indices up 2.7% Each
Index Gainers: Cipla up 9%, HDFC Bank up 7.5%,Jet,MTNL up 7% Each
BSE FMCG Index Down 1.5%;
BSE IT Index Down 1%
Index Losers: Suzlon Down 7%, SAIL~Dn 6%, ITC Dn 3.3%, Infy Dn 2.4%

Markets Today

Markets shed early gains in late trade
Sensex up 26 points at 14570; down over 110 points from days high
Nifty ends flat at 4297; down over 25 points from days high
MTNL up 6.8%; gains on talks of Noida land investment plans in 10 days
BSE IT Index up 1.17%, BSE Bank Index up 1%
Index Gainers; GAIL up 3.4%, Cipla up 2.9%, ABB up 2%, SBI up 1.8%
Profit booking in FMCG & Oil & Gas stocks
Index Losers; Hero Honda down 2.15%, ITC down 1.7%, ONGC down 1.2%
CNX Midcap Index up 0.78%, CNX Nifty Junior up 1.38%, BSE Small-cap Index up 0.82%
Sugar & construction/ real estate stocks gain
Shree Renuka Sugar up 9%, Simbhaoli Sugar up 5%, Balrampur Chini up 3.4%
Lanco Infratech up 15%, Bata up 7.7%, Indiabulls Real Estate up 4.6%
NSE Advance Decline at 4:3
Total market turnover at Rs 41523.26 cr on 1st day of June series

Intraday Calls for 01st June

Nifty supports are 4275, 4240 and resistance are 4325, 4340.
Sensex Support is 14500 and resistance is 14625.
Market positive but I think it will be flat trading today.

Buy Unitech @ Rs. 575/- Target Rs. 585-590/- SL Rs. 570/-
Buy Hanung Toys @ Rs. 155/- Target Rs. 158-160/- SL Rs. 152/-
Buy Jet Airways @ Rs. 770/- Target Rs. 785-790/- SL Rs. 765/-
Buy Sintex Ind Above Rs. 228/- Target Rs. 232-235/- SL Rs. 222/-
Buy Indiabulls @ Rs. 532/- Target Rs. 545/- SL Rs. 525/-

Others buy are Patni (532), Riddhi Siddhi Gluco (256), SesaGoa (1680), BOB (175), ICICI (918)Wipro (542), Rolta (460).

Short Sell (High Risk) Punjllyod (217), Orbitcorp (248).

Good Luck

Thursday, May 31, 2007

Markets Today

It was a good close for markets with Nifty closing on a new high. The global cues were extremely positive as Asia ended higher and Europe opened in green. The markets were trading higher for better most of the day with a bit of volatility due to F&O settlement. Buying was seen in scrips across sectors. Auto, bank and FMCG stocks were among the top gainers. IT opened strong but was off day's high. Frontline stocks outperformed the broader markets.
Among the frontliners Zee Ent, Maruti Udyog, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto were among the top gainers.
Deccan Aviation was up over 6.5% on market reports that Deccan and Kingfisher will come together.
Tata Tea was among the gainer up over 5% on reports that it will acquire majority stake in Mount Everest Mineral Water.
Power stocks NTPC, Suzlon and Reliance Energy were trading weak.
Sugar stocks were in green with goverment likely to increase the buffer stocks. Sugar stocks like Triveni Engineering, Balrampur Chini and Bajaj Hindustan are trading in green.
Among the midcaps Shasun Chemicals was up 20%, Punj Loyd and GE Shipping up 6%, Rolta was up 4%.
On the macroeconomic front, Q4 GDP number were at 9.1% slightly lower than market estimates at 9.4%. But the full year numbers came in high at 9.4%.
Sensex was up 133.08 points or 0.92% at 14544.46, and the Nifty up 46.15 points or 1.09% at 4295.8.
About 1300 shares have advanced, 1140 shares declined, and 75 shares are unchanged.
The BSE Midcap Index ended at 6,222.40 up 31 points or 1.01%.
The BSE Smallcap Index ended at 7,413.03 up 87 points or 0.9%.
The BSE Bankex was up 1.4% at 7,607.35. HDFC Bank, UTI Bank, PNB, SBI, Bank of Baroda moved upwards.
The BSE Capital Goods Index was up 0.7% at 11,153.99. Crompton Greave, Aban Offshore, Greaves Cotton, Thermax, Alfa Laval closed higher.
The BSE Health Care Index was up 0.4% at 3,841.84. Glenmark, Panacea Biotech, Cadila Health, Pfizer, Sterling Bio closed higher.
The BSE Auto Index closed at 5,012.28 up 1.3%. Hero Honda, Bharat Forge, Tube Investment, Maruti Udyog surged.
The BSE Metal Index closed at 10,405.999 up 0.6%. Welspun Guj, Guj NRE Coke, Sterlite Ind, Jindal Saw, Mah Seamless advanced higher.
The BSE FMCG Index gained 1.4% at 1,907.38. Tata Tea, United Spirits, HLL, Colgate, Dabur India closed higher.
BSE Oil and Gas Index closed higher at 7,795.67 up 0.5%. HPCL, BPCL, GAIL, Reliance Natura, Reliance ended in green.
The BSE IT Index gained 0.8% at 4,851.43. HCL Info, Patni Computer, Wipro, I-Flex Solution, Satyam closed higher.
The NSE cash turnover was at Rs 11895.49 crore and the NSE F&O turnover was at Rs 52950.89 crore. The BSE cash turnover was Rs 4511.34 crore. Total market wide turnover was at Rs 69357.72 crore.
Source: moneycontrol.com

Intraday Calls for 31st may

Markets are likely to be volatile on expiry day. Nifty supports are 4245, 4230 and resistance are 4275, 4300. Sensex Supports are 14400, 14350 and resistance are 14475, 14500.
Dollar going strong so its a good news for IT sector.

Buy Infosys Tech above 1905/- Target Rs. 1930-1945/- SL Rs. 1900/- (Strong Support @ Rs. 1900/-)
Buy Wipro @ Rs. 536/- Target Rs. 545/- SL Rs. 530/-
Buy KPIT Cummins @ 139-140/- Target Rs. 145-150/- SL Rs. 136/-
Buy Himadri Chemical @ Rs. 382/- Target Rs. 400+ SL Rs. 375/-
Buy IDBI @ Rs. 90-92/- Target Rs. 95/- SL Rs. 88/-
Buy JP Hydro @ Rs. 36/- Target Rs. 39-40/- SL Rs. 34/-

Others buys are Indiainfo (Above 628), RCOM(501), Global Vectra (252), PatelEngineering (409), Alstom Projects(566).

Good Luck

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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