Saturday, December 12, 2009

Stock Idea: Paper Products Ltd

Paper Products Ltd (Rs 59) (A Mnc Packaging Company)
(BSE Code- 509820, NSE Code- PAPERPROD)
(P/E - 8, Equity - Rs12.54 cr, Market Cap - Rs370 cr)
Paper Products Limited (PPL) is India’s leading manufacturer of primary consumer packaging and labeling materials. The company has a history of over seven decades in the packaging field and its product folio includes flexible packaging, labelling technologies and specialized cartons. PPL has four fully integrated manufacturing units at Thane, Silvassa, Hyderabad and Rudrapur. PPL commands a 65% market share in the high end flexible packaging in India and its clientele includes some of the heavyweights of Indian FMCG players like HLL, Colgate, Nestle etc. Exports constitute around 22% of total revenues and the company's international division services large multinationals like Nestle, Unilever, Cadbury and Colgate Palmolive across 4 continents. In 1999, the company became a subsidiary of Huhtamaki, a global leader in consumer packaging, which holds a 59% stake. Huhtamaki is headquartered in Finland and is one of the top 10 consumer packaging companies in the world
Packaging being crucial to FMCG products, innovations and improved product development are necessary. The packaging industry being highly fragmented and competitive, differentiation is the only mode of survival. PPL has over the years realized the needs of the clients and has come out with new products. Its strong in-house research and development initiatives coupled with Huhtamaki (this Finland based company is PPL’s largest shareholder as well as one of the largest consumer packaging companies globally) have enabled PPL to continue its product development program. It has come out with its innovation initiative NASP (New Application, Structure and Products). This initiative includes new applications for existing products, new products for existing applications and new products for new applications.
Going forward, the FMCG sector is set to sustain the healthy growth. The growth in the packaging industry is directly linked to the growth in the FMCG industry. Apart from this, the growth in the food processing sector will also act as a positive trigger for the packaging industry. The government is increasing its focus on the food processing sector to reduce wastage in the agricultural sector. The growth in retail is already shifting consumer habit to sophisticated and attractive packed goods and articles. PPL meets the packaging needs of almost the entire range of the FMCG segment including personal products, personal wash, laundry, foods, sauces, beverages, bakery products, spices, chocolates and confectionery and dairy; and also for seeds, specialised chemicals, electronics and many other specific uses including anti-spurious packaging.
For the nine months ended Sept. 2009, PPL reported net profit of Rs 30 cr.(up 72%) on net sales of Rs 476 cr.(down 5%). Operating (EBITDA) margins for the company increased by 2% during nine months to stand at 13.6%. The increase in margins is attributed to a more favourable product mix and better cost efficiency margins. Net profit margins improved by 3% during nine months to stand at 6.7%. For the year ended December 2008, PPL’s net sales stood at Rs 620.7 cr..(up 8.7%) and net profit at Rs 21.29 cr.(down 25% due to forex losses). The EPS on a equity of 12.54 cr. on a Rs 2 paid up share stood at Rs 3.4 and the dividend declared was 90%(Rs 1.80 per share). PPL is the largest organized player with a market share of around 65% of the consumer packaging and labeling segment. It must be noted that PPL is not easily dispensable by FMCG players, as packaging plays an important role in not only creating a consumer appeal but is also important for retaining the quality of the product. Further, the company seems to have capitalised on NASP, the innovation strategy, whereby new products contribute to around 29% of total revenues. At the current market price of Rs 59, the stock trades at 9.5 times CY 2009E earnings(Rs 6.2)and at 7.8 times CY10E earnings(Rs 7.5), which is low for an MNC associate and an industry leader set for a decent growth in future.
Going forward, PPL's entrenched position in the premium segment of the flexible packaging industry, its emphasis on innovation and product quality, and increase in focus towards smaller FMCG companies augurs well for its revenue growth. PPL’s performance depends on the growth of the FMCG sector. PPL is a derived play on the FMCG industry. Paper Products is a play on India's long-term GDP growth and the performance of the FMCG sector. Given its focus on innovations and a strong product portfolio coupled with a healthy demand for packaging by the FMCG and retail sector, the company is set for better times going forward. Investors can start accumulating the stock at current levels and add more on declines for decent returns of 40%-45% over the next 6-8 months.
Source: Internet (Valuenotes by Sanjay Chhabria)

Friday, December 11, 2009

Intraday Trading Calls for 11th December

Indian Stock Market may open positive but remains very volatile and some profit booking expected at higher levels. A positive closing expected today.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

APTECH

Buy Above

192.80

198.20

204.00

Sell Below

191.40

187.35

182.00

POLARIS

Buy Above

181.10

185.45

190.00

Sell Below

178.70

174.50

170.00

ROLTA INDIA

Buy Above

185.70

190.25

195.00

Sell Below

183.50

179.20

175.00

CHAMBAL

Buy Above

61.10

63.70

66.00

Sell Below

59.70

57.45

55.00

VIJAYA BANK

Buy Above

57.10

59.40

62.00

Sell Below

56.20

54.15

52.00

GDL

Buy Above

136.70

141.50

147.00

Sell Below

134.35

130.20

126.00

SELAN EXPLO

Buy Above

330.20

337.20

345.00

Sell Below

325.35

319.45

312.00

GOOD LUCK

Stock Idea: State Bank of India (SBI)

State Bank of India (SBI), despite the trying times, has posted a good set of results for the first half ended 30th September 2009. NII grew during H1FY10, grew 3.51% and this was driven mainly by interest on advances but it was muted due to fall in credit deposit ratio. Fee income grew 51.55% and operating income rose 18.03%.
What really helped the performance has been the reduction in the proportion of high-cost bulk deposits, which came down from 16.8% a year ago to 3.6%. Another noteworthy feature is that though PLR, since Sept 08’ has come down by 200 basis till Sep 09’, the yield on advances has fallen by only 29 basis points. This means that the bank has lesser sub-PLR lending.
Advances for HIFY10 grew 16%and deposits grew 25%. Gross NPA was at 2.99% and net NPA was at 1.73%. Interestingly, market share of SBI in advances rose YoY to 16.58% from 15.97%. Its advances to corporates grew 14%, that to SME rose 21%, agri loans grew 21% and home loans showed a healthy and steady rise at 23%. It remains numero uno in the total home loan segment in India.
After launching of SBI Happy Home Loan scheme, monthly average number of loans sanctioned increased from 14,400 in Feb 09 to 22,000 in Sept 09. In H1 FY10 disbursements under Happy Home Loans scheme is Rs 13,290 crore, which account for less than 2.3% of the overall loan book.
Education loans rose 42% and auto loans rose 44%. Market share in Auto loans is around 15% and SBI is the largest player in the industry.
It’s provisioning as at 30th Sept 09’ stood at 42.87% which is lower than 45.15% it had at the end of 30th June 2009. Last month, RBI increased the provision cover to 70% within a year and this means, SBI will have to hike its provisioning, putting pressure on the bottomline.
The good thing going for SBI is the proposed stake sale by the Govt from current 59% to 51%. This will rake in SBI over Rs.12,000 crore. Insurance companies have a 11.23% stake while the FII holding, as at September 30, stood at 9.87%.
Source: Internet (www.premiuminvestments.in by S P Tulsian)

Stock Idea: Allahabad Bank

This bank has been consistently posting a good performance and its results for the second quarter ended 30th September 2009 has been one of its best. Non-Interest Income grew 208 % on a YOY and Net Interest Income grew 22.23 %. Total Business of the Bank rose 18.14% on a YoY at Rs.148103 crore.
Deposits of the Bank went up by 18.55% to Rs. 87309 crore. Gross NPA to Gross Advances further declined to 1.78 % as at September 2009 from 1.93 % on a YoY while Net NPA to Net Advances ratio declined from 0.85% to 0.35 %.
Operating Profit rose 107% at Rs.649.84 crore. Net Profit of the Bank was at Rs. 333.59 crore as against Rs. 41.68 crore in the corresponding period last year recording a growth of700.36%.
Net NPA reduced to 0.35 %. It sustained its Provision coverage Ratio at 79.52 % and Capital Adequacy Ratio was at 14.90 % from 11.46% and this is much more than the stipulated norm of 9%. EPS for the quarter was at Rs.7.47 and book value increased to Rs. 145.19 from Rs.119.79 as on 30.09.08.
During the quarter it opened 6 more branches, taking the total number of branches to 2284.
What really helped the bank post such a stupendous performance despite the circumstances was its focus on high yielding advances and low cost deposits. It paid attention to the improvement of the bottomline instead of concentrating just on the overall balance sheet. The bank is offering a special rebate on its various retail loan products till December 31 and this being targeted at mainly the affordable housing loan sector is expected to add on to the bank’s robust performance. It plans to increase its retail business to 30% this fiscal and is planning to open 26 centralised retail boutiques in major cities across the country.
Stay invested as the Bank is expected to end the current fiscal on a high note.
Source: Internet (www.premiuminvestments.in by S P Tulsian)

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Intraday Trading Calls for 10th December

Indian Stock Market may open negative but recovery expected from lower levels and a flat trading exptected after mid session.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

APTECH

Buy Above

188.65

194.10

200.00

Sell Below

186.55

182.35

178.00

ATLANTA

Buy Above

160.75

165.20

170.00

Sell Below

159.05

155.60

151.00

SONATA SOFT

Buy Above

45.25

47.50

50.00

Sell Below

44.30

42.15

40.00

KPIT CUMMINS

Buy Above

132.45

135.50

139.00

Sell Below

130.40

126.70

123.00

GODAWARI POWER

Buy Above

162.70

167.25

172.00

Sell Below

160.10

156.40

152.00

GDL

Buy Above

139.50

143.75

148.00

Sell Below

137.45

133.20

128.00

MAHINDRA SATYAM

Buy Above

103.60

107.80

112.00

Sell Below

101.50

98.35

95.00

GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Intraday Trading Calls for 09th December

Indian Stock Market may open negative but recovery expected from lower levels and a flat trading exptected after mid session.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

ESSAR OIL

Buy Above

144.65

148.10

152.00

Sell Below

142.35

138.25

135.00

CHENNAI PETRO

Buy Above

227.10

232.45

238.00

Sell Below

224.20

220.30

215.00

ROLTA INDIA

Buy Above

183.25

187.60

192.00

Sell Below

181.05

177.55

173.00

VGUARD INDS.

Buy Above

84.20

87.45

91.00

Sell Below

82.40

79.35

76.00

UNITED PHOSPHO

Buy Above

167.10

171.40

176.00

Sell Below

165.05

161.70

158.00

IOC

Buy Above

320.10

327.60

335.00

Sell Below

315.40

308.70

300.00

ATLANTA

Buy Above

163.80

169.10

174.00

Sell Below

161.70

158.20

154.00

GOOD LUCK

Stock Idea: ABB

The stock hit a high of Rs.744.50 yesterday on news that the company had bagged a Rs.506 crore order from Bangalore Metro. And this seems a far cry from the performance it had posted for third quarter ended 30th September 2009. YoY, net revenue fell 5.6% at Rs.1468.93 crore. Net profit was at Rs.83. 06 crore as against Rs.104.79 crore in Q3 2008.
The company booked orders worth Rs.1893.30 crore in Q3 and this is just a 0.3% rise over Q3 2008. And its cumulative order intake for nine months ending September 2009 was at Rs.6308 crore, down 7.1%. Order backlog increased from Rs.7105.10 crore in Q3 2008 to Rs.8023.30 crore in Q3 2009 which is a 13% rise. The order book is static this quarter which is better than the decline it has shown in the earlier quarter. It does mean that though things do look cautious it is surely bottoming out. Surely, this is one company which is showing benefits of the Govt spend on infra development and stimulus packages.
Yet it is not completely out of the woods. The lower profit margins continue to indicate pressure. OPM for the quarter was at 9.41% as against 11.23% in previous Q3. NPM was 5.65% v/s 6.73% in Q3 2008. But this NPM is also the highest it has had thro entire 2009.
Q4 will continue to show some pressure but it would be better than the previous quarters. It will end 2009 on a muted note but Q4 will help it bolster the numbers for the year end. At the current price, it seems fully priced, best to book profits and re-enter on decline.
Source: Internet (www.premiuminvestments.in by S P Tulsian)

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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