Friday, August 21, 2009

Stock Idea: Greenply Industries

About the Company
Incorporated in August 1984 by Mr. S. P. Mittal, Greenply is India 's largest Interior Infrastructure Company. A leader in the plywood, laminate, decorative veneers and particle board industry, Greenply accounts for 25% of the organized plywood and 15% of the organized laminate market in India. Greenply is the only integrated manufacturer of plywoods, laminates, decorative veneers, particle boards and prelam particle boards/MDF. Popular brands include Greenply Plywood, Green Club Premium Ply, Greenlam Laminates, Green Decowood, Green Lamiboard and Ecotec.

Greenply has 28 branches across India with a strong dealer/distributor/sub-dealer/retailer network of over 9600 and a presence in over 300 cities. It has five modern manufacturing facilities are located in Nagaland, West Bengal, Uttaranchal, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. Greenlam, the flagship decorative laminate brand from Greenply is exported to more than 50 countries including Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Canada, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Kenya, Dubai, Russia, Syria, USA, Australia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, China and Israel.
Industry Scenario

The plyboard and laminates is a highly fragmented industry. Share of unorganised sector is approx. 80% in plywood and around 50% in laminates. Particle Board & MDF (Medium Densified Fiber) segment is growing at a rate of 25% with imports having a share of around 70%. Growth of organised sector is 15-20% in comparison to overall industry growth of 5%, indicating the shift of customer preferences from Unbranded to Branded goods.

Investment Argument
In a sweet spot - well positioned to profit from growth Looking at current market dynamics Greenply has an opportunity to increase its market share in the organised plywood and laminate industry. The organised wood panel industry is poised to grow 15-20% in FY10. Greenply is the market leader in both plywood and laminates segment, having the highest share of the organized market. The unorganized sector constitutes nearly 70% of the plywood and laminates
market is steadily losing its market share to organised sector as customers seek superior quality and value. Creating and sustaining successful brands is also going to be important going forward. Greenply is well positioned to profit from this trend. Huge potential in MDF Greenply is venturing into MDF, a very popular and successful panel product worldwide. MDF is a very versatile product with applications primarily in Paneling. It is also used in a wide range of furniture, windows,doors, frames, handicraft items, display or exhibition stands and signs, ceiling, toys, carving, partitions, maritime applications and educational equipment. 70% of the country’s MDF requirements are currently met by imports. Imports of MDF is costly since the freight component in MDF is around 30-35%.

Greenply is setting up India’s largest MDF Plant with a capacity of 180,000 cbm at the existing unit in Uttaranchal. Project is being setup at a cost of Rs.250 crores. Project implementation is progressing as per schedule and plant is expected to start commercial production by March 2010. The Unit will enjoy Fiscal benefits in the form of excise duty exemption for 10 years and corporate tax exemption on 100% of profits for first 5 years and 30% for the next five. MDF is expected to contribute around Rs.375 crores to the gross revenue at full capacity.
Capacity Expansion in Laminates Greenply has installed a new laminate unit with a capacity of 33 lakh sheets (126.4 lakh Sqm) which commenced commercial production in one press out of a total of three presses proposed to be installed. The plant will get Fiscal benefits in form of - (a) excise duty exemption for 10 years and (b) corporate tax exemption on 100% of profits for first 5 years and 30% for next five years. The total capital outlay for the plant will be Rs.105 crores. Unitwill manufacture compact laminates in three different formats apart from the present (4’x 8’). This will open up markets internationally such as US, Europe, parts of Asia, South Africa, Australia as well as new markets in India. This plant is expected to generate gross revenues of Rs.250 crores at full capacity.
Environmental benefits
Rajasthan unit is registered under the UNFCCC for carbon credits shifting from conventional fuel consumption to mustard husk in its boilers. Uttaranchal unit is in the process of registration. During Q3 FY09 Greenply received Rs.1.2 crore towards carbon credit in respect of the laminates facility at Rajasthan. Carbon credit worth Rs.50 lakh is still under the final clearance process.
Key Risks
Economic slowdown in the domestic and global markets may lead to a fall in growth prospects of Greenply. As a major risk factor, downturn in the realty sector may affect interior infrastructure industry prospects. Globally, allthe countries are adopting environmental compliance measures, which may affect business, as raw materials like timber comprise major input for the company. Rising competition within the organised segment may lead to reduced margins.

At the CMP, Greenply trades at a Price-Earning Ratio of about 5. Our assumption factors in a sales growth of 7.5% and an operating profit growth of 10%. Due to decrease in cost of debt, the net profit is expected to increase by about 48%. The company is expected to report an EPS of Rs.32.54. Assuming a base case P/E ratio of 5.5, gives us a price target of Rs.179.
Source: Internet

Intraday Trading Calls for 21st August

Indian Stock Market may open positive and remains good positive for the day today.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

SELAN EXPLO

Buy Above

224.70

231.35

238.00

Sell Below

221.35

216.45

211.00

CAIRN INDIA

Buy Above

242.65

247.40

252.00

Sell Below

239.45

235.15

230.00

TATA STEEL

Buy Above

445.60

454.15

465.00

Sell Below

438.35

430.10

420.00

ADSL

Buy Above

435.80

443.50

454.00

Sell Below

430.35

420.45

412.00

IGL

Buy Above

157.25

161.55

167.00

Sell Below

154.70

150.45

146.00

PURVANKARA

(532891)

Buy Above

112.20

118.65

124.00

Sell Below

109.40

105.10

100.0

OIL COUNTRY

(500313)

Buy Above

88.20

92.45

97.00

Sell Below

86.10

82.30

78.00

Short to Medium Term Delivery Buy:

Buy SE Investment LTD. (532900) CMP Rs. 170/- Target Rs. 250/-.

GOOD LUCK

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Intraday Trading Calls for 20th August

Indian Stock Market may open positive and remains good positive for the day today.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

SELAN EXPLO

Buy Above

220.10

226.40

234.00

Sell Below

217.35

212.60

205.00

CAIRN INDIA

Buy Above

235.65

240.45

246.00

Sell Below

233.15

229.15

225.00

ESSAR OIL

Buy Above

130.10

134.75

140.00

Sell Below

128.35

124.15

120.00

ADSL

Buy Above

433.75

441.60

450.00

Sell Below

427.30

420.45

412.00

BRFL

Buy Above

187.60

192.75

198.00

Sell Below

184.35

180.10

175.00

NARGARJUNA CONSTRUCTION

Buy Above

130.20

134.50

140.00

Sell Below

127.35

124.10

120.00

JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES

Buy Above

207.65

214.35

221.00

Sell Below

204.35

198.60

192.00

GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Intraday Trading Calls for 19th August

Indian Stock Market may open flat to positive but remains very volatile.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

SELAN EXPLO

Buy Above

217.60

223.15

230.00

Sell Below

214.35

208.45

202.00

CAIRN INDIA

Buy Above

240.20

244.75

250.00

Sell Below

238.15

234.10

230.00

ESSAR OIL

Buy Above

135.70

140.20

145.00

Sell Below

133.45

130.10

126.00

BRFL

Buy Above

191.70

198.45

205.00

Sell Below

188.35

183.25

178.00

NARGARJUNA CONSTRUCTION

Buy Above

129.25

133.65

138.00

Sell Below

127.15

123.70

120.00

JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES

Buy Above

213.75

220.15

225.00

Sell Below

210.35

205.10

200.00

POLARIS

(532254)

Buy Above

136.25

140.15

144.00

Sell Below

134.30

131.20

127.00

Short to Medium Term Delivery Buy:

Buy ALLIED DIGITAL SERVICES LTD. (ADSL) (532875) at decline CMP Rs. 416/- Short to Med. Target Rs. 550/-.

GOOD LUCK

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Intraday Trading Calls for 18th August

Indian Stock Market may open negative and remains very volatile but a bounce back expected from lower levels.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

APTECH LTD.

Buy Above

216.70

222.65

228.00

Sell Below

213.40

208.55

203.00

MARICO LTD.

(531642)

Buy Above

88.60

92.10

95.00

Sell Below

87.35

85.10

82.00

PRISM CEMENT

Buy Above

51.25

54.40

57.00

Sell Below

49.45

47.20

44.00

MICRO TECHNOLOGIES

Buy Above

135.50

140.65

148.00

Sell Below

132.70

128.20

124.00

EKC

Buy Above

186.70

192.45

198.00

Sell Below

183.35

178.45

172.00

BAJAJ HIND

Buy Above

183.60

188.10

193.00

Sell Below

181.35

177.60

174.00

RENUKA SUGAR

Buy Above

172.70

178.40

184.00

Sell Below

170.35

166.15

161.00

GOOD LUCK

Monday, August 17, 2009

Intraday Trading Calls for 17th August

Indian Stock Market may open negative and remains negative for the day today.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME

TRIGGER

PRICE

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

PETRONET LNG

(532522)

Buy Above

72.20

75.10

78.00

Sell Below

70.35

67.50

65.00

TATA STEEL

Buy Above

472.65

481.35

492.00

Sell Below

465.35

457.45

545.00

MADRAS CEMENT

Buy Above

108.60

113.75

120.00

Sell Below

105.35

100.50

96.00

NIIT TECHNOLOGIES

Buy Above

128.25

132.60

138.00

Sell Below

125.15

121.40

116.00

EKC

Buy Above

195.70

201.35

207.00

Sell Below

192.45

187.60

182.00

IDFC

Buy Above

138.55

142.15

146.00

Sell Below

136.05

132.50

128.00

RENUKA SUGAR

Buy Above

179.25

184.30

190.00

Sell Below

176.70

172.30

168.00

GOOD LUCK

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Stock Idea: Hanung Toys & Textiles Ltd.

Hanung Toys & Textiles Ltd (Rs 72)

(BSE Code- 532770 NSE Code- HANUNG)

(P/E- 3, Market Cap- 181 cr., Promoters' stake-62.28%)

Hanung Toys & Textiles Ltd (HTTL) is engaged in the manufacturing & exporting of stuff toys & home furnishing products. Its business units consist of soft toys manufacturing facility, home furnishing production facility and textile processing facility, all located in Noida. HTTL's current installed capacity for soft toys is 20-mn pcs p.a, while capacity of made ups is 6.6 mn sets p.a. Its textile-processing unit has a capacity of 41 mn meters of fabric p.a. HTTL mainly deals with the overseas markets viz. Europe, USA, Latin America & the Middle East. The exports account for 80% of the total revenues (In FY08). In USA, HTTL's major buyers are Britannica Home Fashions & CHF Industries under Home Furnishings & Spring Industries, Mohawk Home & Kojo Worldwide under both, toys & home furnishings. In Europe, their major clientele under home furnishings include Metro Group & ASDA, while IKEA, Carpenter & Francodim are buyers under both segments. In the domestic market, HTTL has two brands for soft toys viz; "Play-n-Pets" & "Muskan". Its home furnishing products are marketed under the brand name "Splash". HTTL's soft toys are available across the country at more than 4000 retail stores & multi brand outlets including Kids Kemp, Lifestyle, Land Mark, Big Bazaar, Globus & Shoppers Stop.

In April 2008, HTTL signed a MOU to acquire 100% stake in Chinese soft toy manufacturing unit, having an annual installed capacity of 10 mn pieces. This unit is said to have infrastructure to double its toy capacity going forward. This seems to be a strategic move as it brings in strong synergies in the form of capacity, clients and product mix. This acquisition could further strengthen HTTL's international presence, improve its overall market share in the toys segment & help to expand the overall margins going forward. HTTL's new soft toys unit at Noida (SEZ) with an installed capacity of 6.3-mn pieces p.a. has commenced its commercial production from April 2008. This unit is expected to operate at 70%-80% utilization in FY10. HTTL also has plans to increase the total capacity of soft toys from the present 20 mn pieces p.a. to 35 mn pieces p.a over the next one year. This could improve the contribution of HTTL's soft toys segment to the total revenues going forward & improve the overall margins, since toys segment offers more margins than the home furnishing segment. HTTL has also set up a new home furnishings facility at Roorkee (spread over 25 acres) with an installed capacity of 35-mn meters p.a. of fabrics processing. The made up capacity has been increased from 1.3 mn sets p.a. to 6.6 mn sets p.a. HTTL is also going in for backward integration to manufacture fabrics & has set up 6.9 mn meters of weaving capacity. This facility would offer HTTL income tax, excise & sales tax benefits.

HTTL continues to record strong order flows amid an uncertain export environment. Entering into a long-term contract with buyers is not a standard practice in the textile industry, as international retailers tend to alter their sourcing plans based on changing fashions. Hanung has managed to enter into two-three year contracts with its clients. In the backdrop of concerns of a slowdown in US imports, the long-term nature of the contracts provides greater visibility to Hanung's revenue stream. At present, HTTL has a healthy order backlog of Rs. 1350 cr. (50:50 for both toys & textiles) of which Rs. 1060 cr. are long term orders, which are executable over a period of 2.5 years. Geographically, the orders have been directed equally towards US & UK.

For the Q1 ended June 2009, HTTL has posted net profit of Rs 15.11 cr.(down 19%) on net sales of Rs 168.2 cr.(up 15%).. HTTL's turnover & PAT had increased by 30% & 9% to Rs. 637.5 cr. & Rs. 66.2 cr. respectively for FY09. EPS for FY09 stood at Rs. 26.4 on a equity of 25.18 cr.(Promoter's stake- 62.28%, FII/MF stake-12.24%). The new home furnishings facility at Roorkee & the Greenfield & brownfield expansion of soft toys facility at Noida contributed to the turnover & profitability growth in FY09. Improved realisations in toys & home furnishing products, better capacity utilisation of existing as well as expanded capacity & economies of scale contributed largely to the sales & profitability growth in FY09 as compared to FY08

At CMP of Rs 72, the stock is currently trading at 2.7x FY09 EPS of Rs 26.4 and 3x FY10 EPS of Rs.24-25 With the aggressive expansion, better utilisation of the expanded capacity & increasing focus on capturing the retail presence, HTTL is well placed to capitalize on the growing market opportunities. Home furnishing segment is expected to contribute 65-67% to the total revenues in FY10. Exports shall continue to be a major growth driver, which would account for 80% of HTTL's total revenues in FY10. wever, going forward, the company is focusing more to improve on the domestic front with strategic alliances with companies like Percept Pictures, Star India Pvt. Ltd. HTTL is also planning to aggressively ramp up retail outlets (franchisee model) over the next two years. In view of the above, Investors can accumulate the Hanung stock at this level and add more on declines for decent appreciation of 40%-50% in the next 8-12 months. Accumulate.

Source: Internet (By Sanjay Chhabria)


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The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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