Multibagger: Shiv-Vani Oil & Gas Exploration

Multi Bagger: Shiv-Vani Oil & Gas Exploration Recommended Price 140.00
PN Vijay, Portfolio Manager Report Dated: Jan 01, 2009
Company Profile:Incorporated in 1989, Shiv-Vani has rapidly evolved to emerge as a key player in the upstream sector of the hydrocarbon industry. It went public in 1993. Headquartered in New Delhi, the company offers a wide spectrum of services in the field of oil and natural gas exploration and production. It provides short-hole drilling services to ONGC and it is globally recognized for its proven expertise in exploration, production and allied services. It provides a complete suite of onshore activities and offshore operations. It is the only integrated CBM (Coal Bed Methane) services provider in India and successfully pioneered horizontal and directional drilling in the country to enhance CBM procurement.Financial Position:In Financial year ending 31st Mar 08 (company has changed the year to 31st March from 2008), Shiv-Vani’s net revenue grew by an impressive 107.33% from Rs 276.8 crore to Rs 574 crore (15 Month ending 31st December 2006. This was due to high order inflows during the period, which was supported by increased fleet base and high realizations. The EBIDTA grew by 129.2% to Rs 222 crore. The net profit also increased by 190% to Rs 107.5 crore from Rs 37 crore. Even though the interest costs and total expenses in FY’08 were higher, the net profit showed excellent improvement due to high operational income. The expenses and raw material cost as a percentage of sales declined in 2008. Other operational expenses as a percentage of sales also showed a decline during the period under review.During this financial year also, Shiv-Vani has continued its growth trajectory. For the second quarter FY’09 net sales grew by 92.4% to Rs 187.24 crore from Rs 97.34 crore in the second quarter FY’08. The EBIDTA also showed an increase of 148% to Rs 90.81 crore. The net profit increased by 140.5% to Rs 47.58 crore from Rs 19.78 crore.FCCB Conversion:The entire FCCBs (Foreign currency Convertible Bonds) issue of USD 55 million (except USD 0.5 Million equivalent to 500 Bonds were redeemed) got converted into 92,08,356 Equity Shares. As on 31st March 2008, there were no outstanding FCCBs for conversion/ redemption. Due to conversion of FCCBs, the net worth of the Company has increased by Rs 250.31 crore during the period. The company has allotted 60,00,000 warrants on 29th March, 2008, convertible into equal number of Equity Shares in the company within 18 months from the date of allotment.The shareholders funds stood at Rs 655 crore as on 31st March 2008. The secured loans and the unsecured loans are Rs 732 crore. The Debt equity is more than 1.

Investment Positives: Shiv-Vani is the biggest private sector rig owner & operator in India specializing in onshore and offshore operations. It has lined up a fleet of 21 onshore rigs (one of the largest in India after ONGC), four seismic data acquisition equipment; four crew boats; seven compressors; 233 drilling rigs and 425 logistic support vehicles. It is one of the few companies in India to own an onshore rig equipped with Top Drive System.Shiv-Vani has joined hands with the Energy Sector world leaders in Russia, USA, China, Malaysia, UAE, Canada, Germany and other countries.It has an order book of Rs 4800 crore out of which Rs 4100 crore is executable over a three-year period. For executing this order book, the company is likely to incur a capex of Rs 600 crore in FY09. It has enough funding for this.Rise in the prices of rig in the coming years will help the company to earn more revenues in its contracts as it has acquired rigs at lower prices.

Concerns: Weakening of the Rupee and delay in order execution will affect profitability. But the Company has an excellent track record in executing orders.The somewhat high level of debt raises some concerns though the FCCBs have all got converted.

During the early months of 2008 Shiv-vani outperformed Nifty. The fall in the price of Shiv-Vani was less than the fall in Nifty and the rise in the price of the stock was greater than the Index. From September the stock has fallen to a great extent, making the share undervalued. Taking into account the prospects of the company the share is a good buy at the current price.

Valuation: Shiv-Vani has shown a superlative financial performance for the FY’08. It is expected to have an annualized EPS of around Rs 43.36 per share for FY09. At CMP of Rs 140, it trades at an attractive P/E of 3.23. The PEG ratio comes to 0.023. We recommend the stock as an excellent investment with a target price of Rs 400 in 12 months.

Source: Internet (Poweryourtrade.com)

Stock Idea: Ahluwalia Contracts India

Ahluwalia Contracts India has been in the limelight yesterday. Its stock price was up locked at the 5% upper limit and it ended the day at Rs.33.70. Investor fancy was back on this counter on news that it has bagged orders worth Rs 394.01 crore. And post this order, its order book stands at Rs 4150 crore as on 31 December 2008, which is nearly 5 times its sales in the year ended March 2008.
This is being viewed by the analysts as a great news and reflects very good going for the company in the coming fiscal. These projects are to be executed over a period of 24 months so this naturally means that in FY10, the company will have a robust growth and the future looks bright.
The going has been good for the company. In the second quarter ended 30th September 2008, the company posted a very healthy 60.5% rise in net sales on a YoY. EBITDA was up 45% and PAT grew 19% at Rs. 14.52 crore. The company's current equity is Rs 12.55 crore. Face value per share is Rs 2. The revenue guidance for FY10, based on the back of the order book looks promising a growth of 40% is expected in the topline.
This Delhi based company is engaged in constructing wide range of structural buildings such as healthcare facilities, hotels, educational institutions, information technology parks and corporate office premises. Despite the slowdown in the sector, the company is poised to do well and this change in fortune is on the back of this huge order which has come in yesterday. Stay invested.

Source: sptulsian.com

Intraday Trading Calls for 06th January

Indian Stock Market may open positive but profit booking expected at higher levels, so a flat closing expected.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME	TRIGGER	PRICE	TARGET 1	TARGET 2
HDIL	Buy Above	143.60	148.25	154.00
	Sell Below	140.05	136.45	132.00
ORCHID CHEMICAL	Buy Above	106.70	111.35	116.00
	Sell Below	103.50	100.05	96.00
ZEE ENTER	Buy Above	152.80	157.25	162.00
	Sell Below	149.70	145.60	141.00
ADLABS FILMS	Buy Above	203.60	208.45	215.00
	Sell Below	199.40	195.15	190.00
APTECH	Buy Above	102.70	107.20	112.00
	Sell Below	99.35	96.00	92.00
ICSA	Buy Above	150.80	156.25	162.00
	Sell Below	148.35	144.25	140.00
ROLTA	Buy Above	128.20	133.45	138.00
	Sell Below	125.15	121.35	116.00

Short to Med Term Delivery Buy:
Buy at CMP and at decline also: Rajesh Exports (531500) CMP Rs. 26/- Target Rs. 38-45/-.
GOOD LUCK

Multibagger: Micro Technologies (india) Ltd.

Micro Technologies (India) Ltd. (Code: 532494) Rs.112.05
Established in 1992 and promoted by Mr. P. Sekhar, Micro Technologies (India) Ltd. (MTIL), an Information Technology Enabled Services (ITES) company is a global developer, manufacturer and marketer of security, safety and life-support electronic equipments & solutions. Over the years, it has developed some high-end security products from mobile security to automobile security & monitoring systems using its leverage over various futuristic technology platforms such as embedded, web-based and client server applications. The high-tech wireless technologies which MTIL caters through its products are the GPS (Global Positioning System), GSM (Global System for Mobile communication), CDMA (Code division multiple access), GPRS (General Packet Radio Service), RFID (Radio-frequency identification) and GIS (Geographic Information System), which is an information system for capturing, storing, analyzing, managing and presenting data. Today, MTIL boasts of hundreds of unique, hi-tech, first-of-its-kind and innovative security products that have a huge demand with tremendous potential worldwide. Considering its performance, it has been accorded with‘Deloitte Technology Fast 500 Asia Pacific Award’ & ‘Deloitte Technology Fast 50 (India) Award’ for two consecutive years in 2007 & 2008. It has even won the Dun & Bradstreet-ECGC Indian Exporters' Excellence Award in June 2008.
During 2007 it was profiled as one of the top IT innovators by NASSCOM. Recently, on 15 August 2008, Dr. A. P. J. Kalam felicitated Dr. P. Sekhar, chairman & managing director, for his significant contribution in the security segment.

Few of MTIL’s blockbuster products & solutions:

Micro VBB - Vehicle Security System Micro HSS - House Security System Micro LMTS - Lost Mobile Tracking System Micro FMS - Fleet Monitoring System Micro OSS - Office Security System Micro SBB - Secure Bank Black Box Micro DMS - Disaster Management System Micro EBB - Energy Black Box Micro VDP - Video Door Phone Micro IBB - Intelligent Black Box Recently launched products/solutions:
Micro BSS - Bike Security System Micro ISS - Intelligent Surveillance System Micro WSS - Wi-fi Security System Micro LNTS - Lost Notebook/Laptop Tracking System Micro BTS - Buddy Tracking System Micro SAMS - Students Attendance Management System

These revolutionary products are the USP for the company. MTIL is one of the first companies to develop security systems using SMS (Short Messaging Services) on a mobile GSM platform. Accordingly, all the products/solutions developed by the company can be fully controlled using normal mobiles & computers. In fact, with over 80 intellectual property rights (IPRs), its technology has been patented in 123 countries giving it exclusive rights in these markets. The company has also got test certifications from national and internationally accredited agencies like ERTL, ARAI, FCC, CE, SYMBIAN etc. for all its premium products. After developing such world-class products, MTIL is now focusing more on marketing and distribution to increase its presence in India and the world. Accordingly, it has appointed more than 2000 dealers/distributors all over India, opened more than 70 Micro Shoppe franchise outlets, increased its participation in exhibitions and has also increased the advertising budget substantially for brand building and product awareness. It has even launched a novell concept of Mobile Micro Shoppe i.e. Shops on Wheels and is also selling its products online through various portals. It has been targeting clients across diverse sectors such as retail, corporate, institutions, PSUs etc and has its products successfully installed at ICICI Bank, Reliance Energy, L&T, NSDL, Siemens, NMMC, FICCI, Girvan Institute, Tata Honeywell, CIDCO, HPCL, BPCL, BARC, MCGM, MSEB, MRVCL, TVS Lucas to name a few. Importantly, it has tied-up with MTNL, BSNL, Idea & Airtel to offer mobile security solutions (Micro LMTS) at a competitive rate to their subscribers. It also has a strategic tie-up with FORD for installation of Micro VBB device in Ford Ikon vehicles. To segregate it business model and work efficiently, MTIL has formed two subsidiaries namely Micro Secure Solutions and Micro Retail, which will concentrate only on the marketing and distribution aspects. Although India in itself is a huge market, MTIL is also betting on the global market to boost its revenue. To increase its global presence, it has entered into marketing tie-ups with several foreign companies like Active Solutions (Nepal), Knowledge Vectar (USA), Easy Fleet Solutions (Turkey), Tokyo Software (Japan), Kreasindo Solusi (Indonesia), Pacific Solution (UK, Africa and Singapore), Status Solutions (UAE), I-System (Srilanka) etc. Of late, it has entered into a strategic agreement with TWI International (South Africa) and Lazer Technology Solutions for distribution of its selected security products in the Middle East and Egypt. Recently, it tied-up with Jicoux Datasystems, a 100% subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corporation, to offer Micro LMTS (Lost Mobile Tracking System) for the Chinese and Japanese markets. Accordingly, it has even introduced the Chinese version of its internationally acclaimed product - Micro LMTS. The company has a strong R&D team working on multiple innovations to ensure that it introduces 5/6 new products in the market every year. At the same time, it is constantly expanding its hardware/equipment manufacturing capacity and improving its infrastructure to meet the rising demand.

Presently, the Indian electronic security market is at a very nascent stage and growing at over 25% per annum. Moreover, it is dominated by the unorganised sector with the organised players enjoying less than 10% market share. With a handful of Indian manufacturers, security equipments are largely imported from China, USA, UK, Germany, Singapore, Italy, Hong Kong, Israel, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. With India having the largest mobile subscriber base and highest number of two wheeler/four wheelers on the roads, the market potential for its product is very huge. Due to the rising terror incidents across India, corporates, households and governments have understood the need/importance of the security of premises. All this will eventually lead to increased business for the company. Recently, the company reduced the price of its products by up to 30% to cash in on the fear sentiment after the Mumbai terror attacks. As far as its financials are concerned, MTIL is doing exceedingly well as it has reported a CAGR of 85% in the topline and 95% in the bottomline in the last three years. Even for H1FY09, it has posted 60% growth in revenue at Rs.117 cr. and 50% increase in net profit to Rs.34 cr. over H1FY08. It has a strong balance sheet with low debt:equity ratio of 0.35 and huge reserves of Rs.192 cr. on its small equity of Rs.10 cr. leading to a healthy book value of Rs.190. On the margin front, it has been consistently registering an OPM of more than 40% and NPM of 30% for the last three years. For the current year, it may post a total revenue of Rs.275 cr. with PAT of Rs.55 cr., which will lead to an EPS of Rs.50 on its current equity of Rs.11 cr. Considering the CMP, chances of conversion of the balance FCCB and warrants into equity appear bleak. With an EV/EBITDA of less than 2 times and market cap/sales of merely 0.40 times and a having cash EPS of Rs.75, the scrip is trading extremely cheap at the market cap of Rs.115 cr. Investors are strongly recommended to buy at current levels as its share price can triple in 15-18 months.

Source: Internet (Moneytimes)

Stock Idea: Hero Honda

The country's biggest two-wheeler maker, Hero Honda slumped on the bourses on Friday on news of a 10% fall in its December sales for motorcycles. to 2,15,931 units in December 2008 over December 2007. The company however reported a growth of 9.04% in sales to 36,08,220 units in the calendar year 2008 over the calendar year 2007. Finally the high interest rates and the lower demand seemed to have caught up with the company.
When it presented the second quarter performance for period ended 30th September 2008, it bucked the industry trend and posted a stunning performance, taking all by surprise. The company reported a PAT of Rs 204.33 crore , as against Rs. 215.97 crore in the corresponding period last year. Total Turnover (sales turnover plus other income, net of excise) grew to Rs. 2391.36 crore, a growth of 4.5% over Rs. 2289.44 crore recorded in the corresponding period last year. The company recorded an EBIDTA margin of 12.39% in the quarter as against 10.76% in Q2FY08.

Despite the slowdown in the two wheeler industry, Hero Honda's share in the domestic motorcycles market has grown upward of 50%. The company’s strategy has been to concentrate on rural India, which is much less affected by the global slowdown than urban. Interest rates have come down and with inflation also coming down, demand is expected to pick up by Q4. Demand is expected to go up in January as the festivals of harvest in South India and Punjab typically see a spurt in two-wheeler buying.
Hero Honda is the least affected in the current slowdown in the auto sector and hence stay invested.

Source: sptulsian.com

Stock Idea: BHEL

The effect of the slowdown cannot be seen in this PSU capital goods company. Infact it seems to be business as usual, with orders burgeoning as has always been the trend.
For the first half ended 30th September 2008, BHEL posted a 31% rise in net sales on a YoY. The value of production (net of excise duty) has also improved by 34.07%. Other operating income was at Rs.599 crore which included one time interest income of Rs.267 crore on IT refund of earlier years. PAT was at Rs.1000.20 crore as against Rs.976.60 crore (Rs.847.60 crore excluding interest on IT refund) in Q2FY08.
Orders worth Rs.14,350 crore were received during the current Q2 and order outstanding currently is at about Rs.1,04,000 crore. So the company continues to have the issues of a huge backlog and unless the expanded facility or new facility does come up soon, this burgeoning issue of order backlog will continue to dog the company.

Wage revision is also a big issue, infact the biggest bane of PSUs. For BHEL, the provision for wage revision was reassessed in the current year at Rs.1907 crore for the period from 01.01.07 to 31.03.09. Amount already provided upto 31.03.08 was Rs.594 crore. Balance Rs.1313 crore is being provided in the year 08-09. In the first 2 quarters of 08-09, Rs.547 crore has been provided. This wage revision is about 5% of the market share of the turnover and will continue to remain so for the next 2- 3 years, denting the margins.
The stock has recovered strongly from the low of Rs.984. Stay invested and if it goes below Rs1000, pick up the stock again.

Source: sptulsian.com

Intraday Trading Calls for 05th January

Indian Stock Market may open positive with gap up and a good positive closing expected with high volatility.

Today's Intraday Stock Tips / Trading Calls (Keep strict Stop Loss for Each Trade):

SCRIP NAME	TRIGGER	PRICE	TARGET 1	TARGET 2
VOLTAS	Buy Above	62.50	65.20	68.00
	Sell Below	60.80	58.35	55.00
PFC	Buy Above	137.60	141.45	145.00
	Sell Below	134.90	131.25	128.00
ICSA (531524)	Buy Above	144.80	149.60	155.00
	Sell Below	142.05	138.10	134.00
INOX LEISURE	Buy Above	40.20	43.15	47.00
	Sell Below	38.55	35.60	32.00
IBN	Buy Above	106.30	111.25	118.00
	Sell Below	103.70	100.05	96.00
THOMAS COOK	Buy Above	48.20	51.45	55.00
	Sell Below	46.15	43.20	41.00
ORCHID CHEMICAL	Buy Above	98.20	103.15	108.00
	Sell Below	94.80	91.20	87.00

Long Term Delivery Buy (Multibagger Stock):
Buy at CMP and at decline also: Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd (524372) CMP Rs. 96/- Target Rs. 220/-.
GOOD LUCK