Saturday, May 24, 2008

Carbon Credits

Every cloud has a silver lining and here, in this gloom spread by the rising crude oil prices, one bright spark, which has emerged, is that of carbon credits.
Infact, on the recently launched carbon credit futures on the Indian commodity bourses, the valuation of carbon credits have gone up by over 10% in last one month. As crude oil is rising, many companies that trade in carbon credits have resorted to using cheaper fuel alternatives to reduce costs. They use coal instead of natural gas for power generation. As these increase emissions, the price of carbon credits is higher.
Carbon credits have two pronged advantages – firstly, it elevates the image of the company as being very socially responsible and secondly, carbon credits gets translated into money worth crore which adds on to the bottomlines. And the income derived from CERs is completely tax free.
India is the leader in the number of carbon credits issued so far and the number of clean development (CDM) projects registered with international CDM body. India has a market share of 32.01% in terms of total number of CERs issued, followed by China with a 20.21% share and Brazil at 12.65% share. 339 Indian companies have been registered with CDM for carbon credit trading. So the major companies that stand to benefit are – SKF, Gujarat Flurochemicals, Indian Acrylics, JSW Energy, JSW Steel, Shree Cement, RIL, Tata Chemicals, Tata Motors, Bharat Forge, Phillips Carbon being some of the prominent biggies that would benefit. (Take a look at the table given below)
India and China are likely to emerge as the biggest sellers and Europe is going to be the biggest buyers of carbon credits as USA has not signed the Kyoto Protocol and hence it cannot buy or sell. Today, carbon is being treated like any other commodity and the best part is that it is also now being traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).
How this carbon credit market works is that typically, the companies in Europe, when they exceed the pollution norms, scout around for companies in the developing nations to buy carbon credits. This means that the companies in the developed country helps the company in the developing country to set up a new technology which is eco-friendly and in that way, it manages to earn carbon credits. The extent to which the emission gets lower, which means carbon dioxide emission gets lowered, as per standards fixed by UNFCC, the company gets credited in the developing country. This in a nutshell is how the carbon credit market works.
Today carbon credits are traded like any other commodity. There are buyers and sellers. Each carbon credit is sold at the rate of around Euro 22. It is traded on the European Climate Exchange. What this means is that for every one tonne less emission by a company, it will stand to gain Euro 22. These carbons can be held or sold now and being into future trading, one can also enter into contracts for a delivery to be taken in the next five years. Only those Indian companies that meet the UNFCCC norms and take up new technologies will be entitled to sell carbon credits.
The contracts expire every December and at that time, people who have bought or sold carbon will have to give or take delivery. They can take delivery even prior to December but that does not make sense as usually, December is the time of the year when European countries have to scout around for credits to meet the norms.
This platform to trade for the Indian companies is like a manna from the heaven as till now, they did not know whether the price which they were getting was fair or not. Transactions were made merely on bilateral agreement as there was no benchmark. But now, with this trading in MCX, companies, which were getting Euro15-18, now stand to gain over Euro 25.
So instead of tracking only companies that are into oil exploration, it would also be prudent to look at companies that have earned tonnes of carbon credit, which thanks to the rising crude prices and deadline of 2012 fast approaching, would reap a very rich harvest.

By Ruma Dubey (Source: sptulsian.com)

Friday, May 23, 2008

Stock Idea: GMR INFRA

As expected, GMR Infra has done well for itself for the year ended 31st March 2008.

For the year ended 31st March 2008, net sales rose 35% at Rs.2294.78 crore., of this power sector accounts for 64.29%, Airports 25.03%, Roads 4.78% and others 5.90%. EBITDA has gone up by 18.90% from Rs.562.01 crore to Rs.668.25 crore. PBT was up 33% at Rs.321.03 crore. PAT before minority interest was up 8.64% from Rs.241.77 crore to Rs.262.65 crore. And PAT after minority was at Rs.210.08 crore, up 20% from last years Rs.174.43 crore.
A loss of Rs.57.81 crore was incurred by GMR Hyderabad International Airport Ltd (GHIAL), a subsidiary of the company which commenced operations on March 23, 2008. The said loss for the quarter / year includes (a) Rs.26.61 crore, being non-recurring pre operative expenditure in the nature of revenue expenditure, and (b) Rs.23.38 crore being the inception costs, both of which are largely non-recurring in nature.
A provision of Rs.25 crore was made during the current quarter, by Delhi International Airport Pvt Ltd (DIAL), a subsidiary of the Company towards estimated arrears that may be payable on account of the implementation of VI Pay Commission recommendations for the employees of the Airport Authorities of India.
A loss of Rs.12.43 for the quarter (previous quarter Rs.35.21 crore ) and Rs.109.15 crore for the year (previous year Rs.85.13 crore) incurred by Vemagiri Power Generation, a 100% step down subsidiary of the company. It declared the Commercial Operations (COD) in September, 2006 but could not continue the operations due to non-availability of gas, resumed generation of power in February, 2008. The said loss is mostly due to interest on project borrowings and depreciation on idle assets which need to be charged to profit and loss account, in accordance with the GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles), during the post COD period regardless whether the project is in operation or otherwise.
On November 26, 2007, the company has made a Preferential offer to Qualified Institutional Buyers. It allotted 16,52,38,088 shares of Rs.2 each at a premium of Rs.238 per share on December 12, 2007 and received an amount of Rs.3965.71 crore. The net proceeds after the issue expenses are to be utilized towards capital expenditure for various projects under development (either directly or through our subsidiaries, joint ventures or affiliates) and general corporate purposes including working capital & strategic initiatives and acquisitions in India and abroad.
GMR Infra has four principal business verticals namely, Airports, Energy Highways and Urban Infrastructure. These are administered through Special Purpose Vehicles for the operations and management of various infrastructure projects. During the year, the company was able to commission the world class Rajiv Gandhi International Airport at Hyderabad ahead of schedule. During the year, GMR also built a satisfactory pipeline of projects. GIL forayed into a new sector with Krishnagiri SEZ. The company also made its first international footprint with Sabiha Gokcen Airport, Istanbul, Turkey, financial closure for which is likely to be achieved by 1st week of June.
The 388.5 MW gas based Vemagiri Power Plant resumed operations in February, 2008, ahead of the expected date of availability of gas. Though there is a temporary shutdown in May 2008, it will resume operations again shortly. Gas is expected to be continuously available from the second half of the current year.
The expansion and upgrading work at Delhi airport is progressing exceedingly well. Runway work is ahead of schedule and all other modernisation and upgrading works are on schedule. Runways and taxiways have achieved an overall progress of 86.20%. Terminal 1 registered an overall progress of 58.12%, while Terminal 2 recorded an overall progress of 80.58%. Terminal 3, scheduled to be commissioned by March 2010, has achieved an overall completion of 26.80%. Over Rs.3000 crore has already been spent on the development work at the airport, of the total project cost, exceeding Rs.8900 crore, post financial closure of the project.
The construction work of the four Highway projects is progressing well on schedule and will be commissioned before end of March 2009, within the concession timelines.
During the year, GMR won / acquired /signed MoUs for four hydro projects, two in Nepal and one each in Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh, with an aggregate capacity of about 900 MW. The company also signed an MOU for a 1000 MW coal project in Chhattisgarh. The development work of all these projects is going at brisk pace. EPC contract for 1050 MW Orissa Kamalanga Project has been awarded while the 300 MW Alakananda Hydel Project has received environmental clearance.
GMR Energy Limited (GEL), 100% subsidiary of GIL, has entered into an MOU with Homeland Energy Corporation, Toronto, pursuant to whereof GEL acquired 10% equity interest in Homeland Mining and Energy SA (Pty) Limited, (HMESA), South Africa. HMESA owns three advanced development / pre-development stage coal project in South Africa. GEL also has non-obligatory option to acquire up to an additional aggregate 40% equity interest prior to December 31, 2008.

The land acquisition for Krishnagiri SEZ is progressing as per schedule and the company has already entered into arrangements for the acquisition of almost one third of the land requirement for the project.
GMR Infra would soon be diversifying into corporate jet business and would be investing Rs.800 crore for the same. The company will be buying three Faulkner and two Hawker aircraft along with one Bell helicopter for commencing charter operations by end of current financial year. The company has also placed an order for one more aircraft, which would be delivered only by 2010-2011. GMR Infra’s board of directors approved the proposal of amalgamation of GMR Aviation Pvt Ltd with the company.
GMR Infra is currently quoted at Rs.144, making it an excellent buy for safe 40-50% returns over next 10-12 months.
Source: sptulsian.com

Markets Today

Markets Snapshot
Markets end near day's low; Inflation at 7.82% Vs 7.83%
Sensex ends down 258 pts at 16650; Nifty down 79 pts at 4946
CNX Midcap Index down 1.35%, BSE Small-cap down 1.7%
Realty, Metal & Oil & gas Indices down nearly 2%
Oil & Gas: Cairn down 4.2%, ONGC down 2.8%, RIL down 2.6%
Metal stocks: Sterlite down 5%, Hindalco down 2.3%
Other Index losers; ITC down 4.4%, PNB down 4.3%, Tata Motors down 3.5%, TCS down 3%
Index gainers; BPCL up 3.6%, Bharti up 2.5%, Suzlon up 2.2%, HDFC up 1.8%
Midcap losers; Rel Cap,Bajaj Hind, India Cement down 5%, GVK Power, Lanco down 5.3%, Indiabulls Real down 4.8%
Losers; Manali Petro down 8%, Tamil Nadu Petro down 9.3%
Small-cap gainers; NEPC India up 20%, Tonira Pharma up 14.7%, Blue Bird up 11%, Graphite up 10.7%, Sita Shree up 8%
NSE Advance Decline at 1:3
Total market turnover at Rs 59391 cr; FNO turnover at Rs 41318 cr
F&O Snapshot
Nifty short build up continues, Nifty rollover around 30%
Short rollovers happeing in bank, cement & metal stocks
Nifty futures discount widens to 15 pts; net add 50 lakh shares in OI (June + May)
Nifty 5000 put shed 4 lakh shares
Nifty 4800 put shed 4.5 lakh shares
Nifty 5100 put shed 1.1 lakh shares in OI
Nifty June 4500 put add 2.2 lakh shares in OI
Put writers are unwinding positions and some of them are getting carried to June series
Strongest rollover
Ultratech: 60%
India Cem: 55%
Hindalco: 41%
HDFC bank: 30%
SBI: 25%

Intraday Trading Calls for 23rd May

A small but good rally expected today in Stock Market India. A positive closing expected.

Today's Intraday Trading Tips:

PRAJ INDUSTRIES
IDFC
GMR INFRA
Indiabulls Securities
HCC
NIIT TECH

For Levels and Targets download the file by CLICK HERE.

Others: Ispat Industries, Voltas & 3i Infotech.
Good Luck

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Reliance Power Bonus

A unique opportunity is just a few days ahead but to grab it we haveto apply our sense. As per our past experience in stock market, we hadbeen seeing that if bonus is 1:1 than price is reduced to 50%, ifbonus is 1:2 than price is reduced to 33%. So on the same pattern, inrel power 3:5 bonus, price should be reduced to 5/8x100=62.5% , but itis not so in case of Rel Power. Dear all in all historical bonusexcept in Rel power, this bonus ratio is applied to Total Shares ofcompany Including Promoter. Anyone can check in bonus history that ifbonus is 1:1, than on ex date total shares of company become double soprice adjusted to 50%.
Take a example that if a company have 100 crore share, price of eachis 1000, so total market capital of company is 100x1000=1,00, 000 (1lack ) crore. Suppose bonus is issued 1:1 ratio than on ex date in themarket total shares are 200 crore, if we apply our sense than it isdefinitely not possible that with same price 200x1000= 2,00,000 (2lack crore) just over one night, So on ex date price will be 500 andmarket capital is same 200x500=1,00, 000 (1 lack) crore. Onlydifference is that before bonus company has liability of 100 croreshare of face value 10 each, so total face value(called as Paid upcapital) is 100x10=1000 crore. If company announce bonus of 1:1, thanface value (paid up capital) 200x10=2000 crore. Dividend is given onface value, if company announce dividend of 20% before bonus, thancompany liability is 1000x20/100= 200 crore dividend, And if companyannounce same dividens after bonus company has liability of2000x20/100= 400 crore.
So practically after bonus total market capital of company remain samebut total face value is increased proportionally and we get moredividend if announced after bonus.
Now come to Rel power. Here total share are 226 crore before bonus(anyone can check at NSE site). So paid up capital is 226x10(facevalue)=2260 crore . Bonus is 3:5 for non-promoter only(which arehaving only 22.8 crore share out of 226 crore), so after bonus totalshare are not 226x8/5=361. 6 crore but 203.2 crore(promoter) + 22.8(nonpromoter) + 22.8x3/5(=13. 68)(bonus) = 239.7 crore total. Plz gothrough 25.02.08 Rel Power NSE announcement on second page 17th line,that paid up equity shares are increase to 239.7 crore.
So, before bonus and after bonus company capital should be same(if nobig fall in market on ex date). Currently Rel power is quoting around400, so total market capital is 226 crore x 400=90,400 crore. Afterbonus total share are 239.7 crore, so keeping the same market capitalreduced price is 90,400/239.7= 377 which in other way 400x226/239. 7=377. Here scene is that Only 10% non promoter are given bonus and out of10% non promoter, if we leave FII, DII etc general public( retailinvestor, HNI )are 4.28%. And this 4.28% common public is unable todigest this opportunity that how 400x5=2000 can be 377x8=3016 just infew days. Did anyone see that FII, DII(MF) are crying on this issue,they are waiting for the opportunity when this common public willrelease their bonus share (which they are unable to digest) on ex dateat lower price and they will grab it. Dear investor compare the priceon the basis of total market capital before and after bonus. Some bigfish will try to low the price on and after ex date to compel smallinvestor to release their stake. Many are creating panic in marketthat ex bonus price will be around 300 or even less Than think in waythat 239.7 crore x 300=71,910 crore market capital. Did Anil announcebonus that company which was of 90,000 crore would become of 70,000crore. Believe on him he will take care for that but u all have tokeep patience for some time. Controlling price is also in public hand,if we all don't sell on ex date how price will come down, than onlyFII and DII will left and they are enough sensing the situation.
If u all can wait for three-six month than price will come around 500as project progress happen than imagine 400x5=2000 will be 500x8=4000,100% return in around 4 month. So don't think of selling but digestthe opportunity with sense(total market capital of company before andafter bonus). Best of luck.
Source: Internet

Markets Today

Markets Snapshot
Market closes near day's low on back of cues from US markets
Fed cuts GDP growth forecast, raises inflation and unemployment outlook
Sensex ends down 336 pts at 16907; NIfty down 92.2 pts at 5025NIfty finds constant support around 5020 during the day
CNX Midcap Index down 1.7%, BSE Small-cap Index down 1.4%
All BSE Sectoral Indiced end in the red
BSE Bank Index down 3% ahead of inflation data tomorrow; PNB down 3.7%, ICICI bank down 3.4%, SBI down 3.3%
BSE Realty Index down 2.7%; Unitech down 3%, DLF down 1.7%
BSE Cap Goods Index down 2.4%; BHEL down 1.3%, L&T down 2.5%
Index losers; Suzlon down 6%, Tata Motors down 4%, Idea down 3.9%, Rel Infra down 3.9%
Profit booking seen in tea and petro-related stocks
Tea Stock: Williamson Magor down 9%, McLeod Russel down 6.4%, Assam Co down 3.5%
Petro-related stock: Andhra Petro down 8.2%, Supreme Petro down 8.3%, Sah Petro down 7.6%
Profit booking; Videocon Appliance down 9%, MIC Elec down 7%, Lanco down 7%
Re-listing: Sylph Tech ends at Rs 200 Vs re-listing price at Rs 152 (hits a high of 800 during the day)
Buzzers: Manali Petro up 7.8%, Gujarat Siddhe up 10%, Shree Digivijay up 9.2%, Ispat up 4.4%
NSE Advance Decline ratio at 1:3
Total market turnover at Rs 64678 cr Vs Rs 61843 cr on Wednesday
Total NSE F&O turnover at Rs 45076 cr Vs Rs 39481 cr on Wednesday
F&O Snapshot

Nifty futures end at 2 pts premium after trading around 5-10 pts discount through out day
Fresh sohrts seen in Nifty futures; add 38 lakh shares in OI
Hugh Unwinding seen in Nifty Put options
Short Positions seen in Real Estate, Banking & Fmcg Sector
Nifty 5100 put shed 3 lakh shares in OI
Nifty 5000 put shed 2.65 lakh shares in OI
Nifty 5200 put shed 1.4 lakh shares in OI
Nifty 4800 put add 2.65 lakh shares in OI
Momemtum Stocks Unwinding :
HOEC down 5.7%; sheds 9.7 lakh shares in OI
Chambal Fert down 5.3%; sheds 37 lakh shares in OI
RNRL down 3.5%; sheds 13.5 lakh shares in OI
Praj Ind down 3%; sheds 5.5 lakh shares in OI
JP Hydro 3.4%; sheds 4.3 lakh shares in OI
Fresh Shorts:
IDFC down 4.5%; adds 16.4 lakh shares in OI
Suzlon down 5.8%; adds 14.4 lakh shares in OI
SBI down 3.6%; adds 5.1 lakh shares in OI
Short Built up Continues :
GMR Infra down 5%; adds 15.1 lakh shares in OI
Unitech down 3.5%; adds 5.3 lakh shares in OI
ICICI Bank down 3.9% ; adds 3.9 lakh shares in OI
NTPC down 2.2%; adds 3.9 lakh shares in OI
Source: moneycontrol.com

Intraday Trading Calls for 22nd May

Indian Stock Market may open nagetive and see some selling presure as all global markets are trading lower and US Markets closed dip in red yesterday. But Indian stock market can recover again from lower levels and a flat to nagetive closing expected.

Today's Intraday Trading Tips:

PRAJ INDUSTRIES
IFCI
VOLTAS
HDIL
NEYVELI LIGNITE
RENUKA SUGAR

For Levels and Targets download the file by CLICK HERE.

Others: Keep an eye on Hind Oil Exploration, Selan Exploration, Videocon Industries, Essar Oil etc. as crude is trading very high at $135.

Good Luck

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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