Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Markets Today

The key benchmark indices ended lower as investors resorted to profit booking due to lack of positive triggers in the market. Selling pressure was seen in mid-caps and small-caps counters with their barometers underperforming the Sensex.
Realty and power stocks were the worst hit, whereas FMCG and metal stocks were on the positive side. IT pivotals recovered at the fag end of the session after rupee slipped to eight-month low against the dollar.
The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 117.89 points or 0.67% at 17,373.01. The index lost 253.22 points at day’s low of 17,237.68, hit in mid-afternoon trade. Sensex gained 11.25 points at day’s high of 17,502.15, hit at the onset of trading session.
The broader based S&P CNX Nifty fell 47.6 points or 0.92% at 5144.65. Nifty May 2008 futures were at 5174.50, a premium of 29.85 points as compared to spot closing.
The market breadth was negative on BSE with 965 shares advancing as compared to 1722 stocks that declined. 68 stocks remained unchanged.
The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.94% to 7,230.31 and BSE Small-Cap index fell 1.09% to 8,749.24. Both the indices underperformed the Sensex.
BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 6691 crore as against Rs 6,393.68 on Monday, 5 May 2008. The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 32856.62 crore, which was lower than Rs 32972.85 crore on Monday, 2 May 2008.
IT stocks moved up after rupee touched a 8-month low as oil refiners stepped up dollar buying after oil hit a record high, adding to concerns of a widening trade deficit and slowing capital inflows. The BSE IT index outperformed the Sensex, gaining 1.53% to 4,383.36.
Tech Mahindra (up 2.49% at Rs 943.40), Satyam Computer (up 1.96% at Rs 497.05), Infosys Technologies (up 1.84% at Rs 1,820.30), Wipro (up 1.70% at Rs 498.45) and TCS (up 1.44% at Rs 937.85), rose. The partially convertible rupee was at 40.85 per dollar, its lowest since 6 September 2007.
India’s largest private sector firm by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries rose 0.42% at Rs 2654.40.
India’s top listed cellular service provider by market share Bharti Airtel slipped 5.29% to Rs 846.60. Bharti Airtel has reportedly bid for 51% of South African telecommunications group MTN. According to reports, Bharti had tabled a bid for MTN at 165 rand per share and had secured $12 billion from banks to finance the deal, which would make Bharti a top player in emerging markets telecoms.
The BSE Realty index underperformed the Sensex, sliding 4.63% to 8,337.03. Unitech (down 7.21% at Rs 307.05), Housing Development & Infrastructure Corporation (down 6.15% at Rs 781.70), Omaxe (up 5.48% at Rs 232), and Indiabulls Real Estate (down 1.44% at Rs 556.35), slipped.
India's largest real estate developer by market capitalisation DLF fell 5.26% to Rs 667.95.
The BSE Power index underperformed the Sensex, falling 2.15% to 3,315.61. Reliance Infrastructure (down 4.92% at Rs 1,442.30), Tata Power (down 4.49% at Rs 1,331.75), Torrent Power (down 2.23% at Rs 135.80), NTPC (down 1.28% at Rs 195.95) and Power Grid Corporation of India (down 0.80% at Rs 105.15), tumbled.
The BSE Bankex outperformed the Sensex, falling 0.46% to 9,088.70. Bank of India (down 2.47% at Rs 353.60), Yes Bank (down 2.46% at Rs 174.45), State bank of India (down 1.29% at Rs 1,756.20), and Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 1.28% at Rs 858.30), declined from the Bankex pack.
Union Bank of India (up 2.07% at Rs 172.25), Bank of Baroda (up 1.66% at Rs 325.35), HDFC Bank (up 0.66% to Rs 1,539.90) and Axis Bank (up 0.10% at Rs 947.85), moved higher from the Bankex pack.
India's largest private sector bank by assets ICICI Bank fell 0.55% to Rs 928.05.
Oil refiner Cairn India rose 1.67% to Rs 259.10 after the Goldman Sachs Group Inc raised its estimate on the stocks by 14% to Rs 325 a share.
PVC pipes maker Finolex Industries soared 6.73% to Rs 76.95 on repors the firm has decided to sell off its plot at Chinchwad near Pune. It is close to signing a deal with a US-based developer to sell the land for between Rs 350 crore and Rs 400 crore.
Dairy products maker Anik Industries was locked at upper limit of 5% to Rs 57.75 after posting 76.4% surge in net profit to Rs 8.96 crore on 58.1% increase in total income to Rs 333.27 crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 March 2007.
State-run lender UCO Bank jumped 1.99% to Rs 51.20 on reports the bank would raise Rs 325 crore through an equity issue in June 2008, and convert government equity worth Rs 300 crore into preference shares. The stock touched a high of Rs 54.20 earlier in the session.
Civil construction firm Patel Engineering rose 1.88% to Rs 607 after its unit's joint venture in the United States received a dam reconstruction contract worth $280 million. The stock had earlier touched a high of Rs 632.
Textiles manufacturer Mohit Industries spurted 10% to Rs 24 after posting 180.13% surge in net profit to Rs 0.42 crore on 1.93% fall in total income to Rs 29.71 crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 March 2007.
Steel maker JSW Steel fell 2.12% to Rs 879.60 on reports the firm will moderate any price hike this year and raise capacity to offset pressure on margins.
Polyester filament yarn maker Century Enka plunged 5.38% to Rs 121.40 after the company reported net loss of Rs 0.89 crore in Q4 March 2008 as compared to net profit of Rs 1.38 crore in Q4 March 2007. Total income rose 31.50% to Rs 326 crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 March 2007.
Titagarh Wagon clocked the highest turnover of Rs 263.39 crore. Reliance Capital (Rs 236.40 crore), Reliance Natural Resources (Rs 210.91), Reliance Petroleum (Rs 204.49 crore) and Reliance Infrastructure (Rs 177.87 crore), were the other turnover toppers on BSE in that order.
Reliance Natural Resources reported the highest volume of 1.74 crore shares on BSE. IFCI (1.73 crore shares), Ispat Industries (1.50 crore shares), Tata Teleservices (Maharastra) (1.19 crore shares) and Reliance Petroleum (1.01 crore shares), were the other volume toppers on BSE in that order.
US markets declined yesterday, 5 May 2008, with financial shares facing the maximum brunt on fears of Bank of America Corp likely to abandon its deal to buy Countrywide Financial Corp. However, Bank of America said after the closing bell that it remained committed to acquiring Countrywide.
The asset base of the Indian mutual fund industry increased by 7.32% during the month of April 2008. The mutual fund industry now has Rs 5,67,601.98 crore of assets under management.
High inflation remains the biggest concern for the Indian stock market. The measures taken by the Union government to control inflation have also added to uncertainty on corporate profit. Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Tuesday, 29 April 2008, said government will impose export tax on basmati rice and some steel products, and cut import duties on key inputs like ferro alloys and metallurgical coke. He said the measures were being taken to improve domestic supplies and to moderate prices. The government has already banned export of cement and non-basmati rice.
Given that parliamentary elections are scheduled next year (in May 2009), the government may leave no stone unturned in its attempt to rein in inflation. This is bad news for commodity scrips like cement, steel etc.
In a bid to rein in inflation, the Reserve Bank of India, on Tuesday, 29 April 2008, raised cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points to 8.25%, to suck out excess liquidity in the banking system, in its annual monetary policy review. While the central bank has mentioned price stability as its key priority, the overall undertone of the policy is not as hawkish as market had feared. The RBI governor Y V Reddy expects inflation to moderate in the next 2-3 months.
Good Q4 results March 2008 results and firm global markets, triggered a solid rebound in the Indian market over the past few days. Buying by domestic institutions has supported the market. From a recent low of 14,809.49 on 17 March 2008, the Sensex climbed 2,790.63 points or 18.84% to 17,600.12 on 2 May 2008.
The structural growth drivers of the Indian economy remain intact – India’s economy is expected to witness a decent-to-strong growth for a long period of time due to favourable demographics. Acceleration in infrastructure creation will be another driver of strong growth in India’s economy. Rating agency CRISIL in its latest outlook for Indian economy for the year through March 2009 has stated that the overall growth scenario is expected to remain strong with investment as the main driver.
Another pointer to the fact that the long term India growth story remains intact is the outcome of the latest 2008 US-India Business Council (USIBC) survey, according to which, India is, and will continue to be, a premier destination for investment by US firms, with a large number of respondents rating future economic growth in India as highly sustainable.

Intraday Calls for 6th May

Market may see consolidation with high volatility. A flat to nagetive opening and some profit booking thereafter. Again a nagetive closing expected.
Today's Intraday Trading Calls:

UNITECH
PFC
GMDC
PTC INDIA
YES BANK
ANKUR DRUG

For Levels and Targets download the file by CLICK HERE.

Others: Lok Housing (146) & Chambal Fertilizer (72).

Good Luck

Monday, May 5, 2008

Intraday Calls for 05th May

Market may open flat to positive but profit booking can be seen at higher levels and nagetive closing expected.

Today's Trading Calls:

KESORAM INDUSTRIES
GMR INFRA
ANSAL INFRA
STERLITE INDUSTRIES
CEAT Ltd.
MUNDRA PORT

For Levels and Targets download the file by CLICK HERE.

Multibagger Calls: Buy Kamanwala Housing 511131 (116) 12-18 Months Target 250+
Good Luck.

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Short-Med Term Delivery Picks

Tyre sector:

Apollo Tyre (47) Target 53-55+
CEAT Ltd. (136) Target 155-160+
J K Tyre (139) Target 160+
MRF Ltd. (4600) Target 5250-5500

Friday, May 2, 2008

Intraday Calls for 2nd May

Stock Market India may open with gap up but profit booking at higher levels contineous. Markets may see strong rally if inflation declines.

Today's Trading Calls:
APTECH
RENUKA SUGAR
DCB
STERLITE INDUSTRIES
IOC
MAHINDRA LIFE
For Levels and Targets download the file by CLICK HERE.

Others: Dish TV & India Glycols.
Short-Med Term Delivery Pick Buy Surya Pharma (109) For Target 150+.
Good Luck

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Stock Ideas: Sesa Goa, HUL, Bharti Airtel

ICICI Securities has maintained its buy rating on Sesa Goa with a price target of Rs 6300 in its April 29, 2008 research report. "Sesa Goa’s Q4FY08 results beat expectations, with stellar 207% YoY net profit growth on the back of record quarterly iron-ore sales of 5mnte. Revenues were up 108% YoY and 140% QoQ to Rs 17.1 billion. EBITDA increased 208% YoY and 61% QoQ to Rs 12.2 billion with EBITDA margin at 71%."
"We are revising our FY08E, FY09E and FY10E earnings estimates upwards 18.7%, 52.5% and 62.8% respectively, given high earnings trajectory on the back of: i) positive volume surprise in the quarter as well as FY08 (12.44mnte) combined with volume guidance of 25-30% increase per annum, ii) robust pricing scenario via increased spot sales mix and 65% price increase in contract sales. Post achieving our earlier price target of Rs 3,989 per share, we are upgrading our price target to Rs 6300 per share based on FY10E P/E and EV/EBITDA of 8x and 3.9x respectively. Maintain BUY," says I-Sec's research report.

Angel Broking has recommended an accumulate rating on Hindustan Unilever with a target price of Rs 276 in its April 29, 2008 research report. "For 1QCY2008, Hindustan Unilever (HUL) posted a solid Topline growth of 19.1% yoy (highest quarterly growth since 2002) to Rs 3,794 crore (Rs 3,184 crore), beating our expectation of 14.7% growth to Rs 3,652 crore. Topline growth was largely led by a strong 19.4% growth (volume growth of 10.2%) in the company’s core FMCG business backed by 19.9% growth in the Soaps/Detergents segment (aided by price hikes and marketshare gains in the Laundry segment) and 23.5% growth in Personal Products segment (aided by low base, extended winter and re-launch of several brands).
"We have revised our Target Price upwards to Rs 276 (Rs 237) as we introduce CY2009E numbers and assign a P/E multiple of 25x to our CY2009E EPS of Rs11.1. We believe HUL’s accelerated sales growth momentum, revival in its Personal Products portfolio and scale up of new businesses would help it sustain premium valuations. While inflationary pressures remain a key cause of concern, we believe HUL is well placed to combat such pressures owing to its cost saving initiatives, wide product portfolio mix and ability to undertake price hikes owing to strong brands. At the CMP of Rs251, the stock is trading at 22.7x CY2009E EPS of Rs11.1 and 21.5x EV/EBITDA. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock, with a revised Target Price of Rs 276 (Rs 237), says Angel's research report"

IndiaInfoline has recommended a buy rating on Bharti Airtel with a target price of Rs 1123 in its April 28, 2008 research report. "The company's revenues increased by 13.1% qoq driven by 12.4% qoq subscriber growth; FY08 subscriber added up 67%. Q4 wireless margins fell by 360 bps yoy on transfer of passive infrastructure to Infratel. Q4 PAT was higher by 32.9% qoq on lower interest cost."
"We value Bharti’s core wireless business on a DCF basis with 12. 1% WACC and terminal growth of 3% for a price of Rs 943. With Infratel and Indus combine likely to add about 35000 towers in FY09 and assured tenancy on Indus, the tower JV, we put the value of tower arm at USD 8.7 billion, or Rs 180 per share of Bharti. At our target price of Rs 1123, Bharti trades at a P/E of 18.3x and EV/EBIDTA of 8.3x FY10E earnings. As network coverage reaches a majority of population, mobile capex would gradually decline which implies company would have significant free cash flows going forward (estimated USD 3.1 billion by FY10) that could be used for inorganic growth or to bid aggressively in 3G auctions. Recommend BUY," says IndiaInfoline's research report.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Stock Idea: CIPLA

The largest pharmaceutical company in the domestic market, with a 5.42% market share, ahead of Ranbaxy and GSK, Cipla has posted encouraging financial results for the year ended 31st March 2008.

The net sales of the company increased 18% at Rs.4,226.81 crore. Interest outgo increased from Rs.6.97 crore in FY07 to Rs.11.59 crore in FY08. PBT was up 4% at Rs.830.66 crore and PAT was up 6% at Rs.700.48 crore. On an equity of Rs.155.46 crore, the EPS is at Rs.9.01.

Employee cost increased by a whopping Rs.254.31 crore due to overall increase in manpower, salary revisions and change in Bonus Act. Operating margin was down at 23.06% and NPM was also down at 16.57%.
It had a whopping ‘other expenditure’ of Rs.1,041.23 crore and this was mainly on account of sales promotion/advertisement campaign and processing charges. The hi-profile advertising campaign on Cipla’s I-pill, “the morning after pill”, accounted for a large part of this expense.
Regarding the SEZ in Goa where Cipla was to set up its plans, on which the company had already invested Rs.200 crore, the project eventually got scrapped due to a petition filed by Meditab Specialities Pvt Ltd, developer of the SEZ. The case is still being pursued in the courts and it would require only a crystal ball to see and tell us what the future holds regarding the SEZ.

What does not require a crystal ball is that the company, for the current fiscal, has projected a growth between 12 -15%.

There is no doubt that Cipla is one of the bluest of the blue-blooded pharma companies listed on the Indian bourses today. There have some concerns regarding the various demand notices it has been receiving from the Supreme Court though the legal advisors to the company continue to maintain the opinion that the demand notices of the government are not tenable and sustainable.

Currently quoted at Rs.217, Cipla is a great pharma company. Hold on.

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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