Thursday, November 15, 2007

IPO Talk: Edelweiss Capital

Edelweiss Capital is entering the capital market on 15th November 07, with a public issue of 83.86 lakh equity shares of Rs.5 each in the band of Rs.725 to Rs.825 per share.

Edelweiss is a known name in the financial market and the company with its nine wholly owned subsidiaries and two subsidiaries, is offering integrated financial services and products, including, investment banking, institutional equities, private client brokerage, wealth management, asset management and investment advisory services, insurance brokerage and wholesale financing.

For FY 07 the total income, on consolidated basis, was at Rs.371.25 crores with PBT of Rs.173.77 crores and PAT of Rs.109.00 crores. Of this, trading and arbitrage income was at Rs.114.22 crores. For five months ending 31st August, 07, the total income of the company was at Rs.284.86 crores, of which trading and arbitrage income was at Rs.103.46 crores. This has resulted in PBT of Rs.127.89 crores and PAT of Rs.80.93 crores.

If we analyse results of FY 07, and results of five months ending August 07, employee costs have increased by about 100%, on an annualized basis, while finance cost increased by about 350%, on annualized basis. As against this, core income of the company, being fee brokerage and commission income improved by just 50%, on an annualized basis.

For any financial services company, especially for an investment and broking and wealth management company, the core business revenue is from fee, brokerage and commission income and not the trading and arbitrage income. However, in case of this company, the bottomline over the years viz. FY 04 to FY 08 (part) has largely come from trading and arbitrage income. Hence the question arises - how far would it be acceptable to capitalize such income component, while valuing the company?

Even the debt component of the company rose sharply from Rs.386 crores as at 31st March 07 to Rs.976 crores as at 31st August 07. On gross basis, it has resulted in a yield of 13% for five months or about 2.5% per month. This kind of yield is given by arbitrage plays, even on a fund size of Rs.1,000 crores. So, the business model of the company is relying more on trading and arbitrage income which may not be perceived to be very healthy, on a sustainable basis, while valuing a company.

On an annualised basis, for FY 08, the company may have a bottomline of Rs.250 crores, which may result in an EPS of about Rs.33, translating into a PE multiple of about 25 times, at the upper band of Rs.825 per share. The market capitalization of the company, post issue, at the upper band of Rs.825 per share, works out at Rs.6,200 crores.

If we consider grey market premium of Rs.500 per share, market cap on listing would be about Rs.10,000 crores, which makes the issue definitely expensive when compared to its peer like Indiabulls Securities, India Infoline and Motilal Oswal.

The revenue model of the company does not give absolute comfort and looking at the grey market activity and quote, the subscription levels would be very high, resulting in poor allotment ratio. Still if somebody wishes to ride the momentum, one can go for it.
Source:sptulsian.com
***** Latest Grey Market Premium is Rs. 725-750/-

Intraday Calls for 15th November

Market should open positive and may touch all time highs but remains volatile. It can see some profit booking at higher levels. Close above 20000 market can see 22000 by Jan-Feb' 08.

Buy for Intraday:

Bongaigaon Refinery (80.5)
RPL (215)
Gulf Oil (291)
Petronet LNG (102)
Selan Exploration (165)
JP Hydro Power (97)
GMR Infra (209)
Nagarjuna fert. (66)
RCF (72)
Essar Steel (49)
Navneet Publications (94)
Andhra Petrochem (28.35)

Others: DCW, Gujarat Alkali, National Alum Co. (NALCO), Nelcast, Gabriel Ltd, KPIT.

***** Maximaa Systems Hits another Upper Curcuits at Rs. 4.23/-.
CHD Developers slowly moving up. Accumulate.

Good Luck

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Markets Today: Biggest Single Day Gain

The markets ended with monster gains on heavy buying in scrips across sectors. Sensex has gained over 900 points and Nifty has scored over a double century and was up over 250 points. It was the biggest single day absolute gain for Sensex. The cues from global markets have been robust with Asia closing higher and Europe opening strong.
Oil & gas, capital good, metal and banking stocks continue to be in the limelight today. Broader markets have also participated in the uptrend but the frontliners outperformed the midcap and smallcap indices. BSE Midcap index was up over 2% and the smallcap index was up over 2.4%.
ICICI Bank surged over 9%, Wipro and Hindalco were up over 7% followed by HDFC, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, Rel Petro and PNB.
Sensex was up 893.58 points or 4.69% at 19929.06, and the Nifty up 242.50 points or 4.26% at 5937.90.
About 2135 shares have advanced, 852 shares declined, and 78 shares are unchanged.
The BSE Midcap Index ended at 8,285.63 up 2%.
The BSE Smallcap Index ended at 10,039.38 up 2.4%.
The BSE Bankex was up 7.2%. Top gainers were HDFC Bank up 11.3%, ICICI Bank up 8.9%, PNB up 9.7% followed by SBI, BOB, HDFC Bank, Union Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra, Andhra
Bank, Bank of India moved upwards.
The BSE Capital Goods Index was up 1% at 20,386.41. Siemens, Areva T&D, Kirloskar Oil, Bharat Bijlee, Triveni Engg closed higher.
The BSE Auto Index closed at 5,423.10 up 0.6%. Hind Motors, MICO, TVS Motor, Maruti Suzuki, Cummins closed higher.
The BSE Metal Index closed was up 4.2%. Among the top gainers were Nalco up 13.7%, Hindalco up 7.3%, SAIL up 6% Jindal Steel, JindalStainless, Tata Steel, SAIL, Hind Zinc closed higher.
The BSE FMCG Index closed at 2,062.04 up 1.2%. United Spirits, GlaxoSmith Con, ITC, Dabur India, Marico, ITC, Bata India closed higher.
BSE Oil and Gas Index closed up 7%. Heavies like Reliance up 7.2%, ONGC up 4.7% followed by Reliance Natura, Essar Oil, Reliance Petro, Petronet LNG ended higher.
The BSE IT Index was at 4,634.64 up 0.4%. Wipro, Satyam, Infosys, Financial Tech, TCS closed higher.
BSE Realty Index was up 3.1%; Unitech up 2.5%, Indiabulls Real up 7.5%.
The NSE cash turnover was at Rs 20698.46 crore and the NSE F&O turnover was at Rs 68270.99 crore. The BSE cash turnover was Rs 8791.8 crore. Total market wide turnover was at Rs 97761.25 crore.
Source:moneycontrol.com

Intraday Calls for 14th November

Market may open with gap up and a strong rally expected. Once close above 20000 for sensex 22000 levels can be seen by Jan-Feb 08.

Buy for Intraday:

Power Sector:
Reliance Energy,
Suzlon Energy,
Power Grid
NTPC
Torrent Power

Banking Sector:
Bank of Baroda
UCO Bank
Yes Bank
Syndicate Bank

Financial Sector:
India Infoline
India Bulls
IFCI
PFC
Tata Investment Corp (Trading very cheap at Rs. 690/- compare to its peers like Reliance Capital. Buy for Long Term Target of Rs. 2000+)

Others:
DCW, Teledata, Blue Bird, Paramount Communication, Genus Power, MTNL, Sail, Wipro.

***** Maximaa Systems hits the upper curcuit at Rs. 3.85/- and CHD Developers is also moving up.

Good Luck

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Markets Today

The bulls staged a strong comeback helping markets close with hefty gains. The day started flat with buying seen in midcaps and smallcaps but moved ahead with heavy buying seen in frontline banking, power, capital good stocks. Sensex was up 350 points and the Nifty has scored almost a century ending near 5,700 mark.
On the macroeconomic front, the positive trigger being the Left has given the nod to government to proceed negotitations with IAEA on Nuke deal.
Power stocks surged Areva T&D was up 20%, Alstom Projects up 10%, Voltamp Transformers up 8%, NTPC was up 7%, L&T up 5.6%, BHEL 4.5% and Tata Power was up 4%.
Heavies like SBI, HDFC Bank, L&T, Tata Steel Reliance Ind, NTPC were helping the markets
trading higher.
Broader markets have held out their gains and both midcap and smallcap indices were up 2% each. However, the IT stocks were still under pressure.
Among the frontliners HDFC Bank was up over 6%, MTNL up over 4%, HDFC, SBI, Suzlon each up over 4%. ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Maruti were up over 3% each.
Sensex was up 298.21 points or 1.59% at 19035.48, and the Nifty up 78.30 points or 1.39% at 5695.40.
About 1982 shares have advanced, 1001 shares declined, and 82
shares are unchanged.
The BSE Midcap Index ended at 8,113.72 up 2%.
The BSE Smallcap Index ended at 9,801.29 up 2%.
The BSE Bankex was up 3.5% at 10,538.05. HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, IOB moved upwards.
The BSE Capital Goods Index was up 3.4% at 20,292.56. Areva T&D, Alstom Project, Bharat Bijlee, Bharat Elec, Gammon India closed higher.
The BSE Auto Index closed at 5,136.25 up 0.5%. Punj Tractors, Bharat Forge, Amtek Auto, Exide Industrie closed higher.
The BSE Metal Index closed at 17,046.73 up 1.6%. Mah Seamless, JindalStainless, Jindal Steel, SAIL, Tata Steel closed higher.
The BSE FMCG Index closed at 2,068.66 up 0.6%. Bata India, United Spirits, Colgate, Marico closed higher.
BSE Oil and Gas Index closed at 11,408.93 up 0.4%. Reliance Natura, BPCL, Reliance , Reliance Petro, Petronet LNG ended higher.
The BSE IT Index was at 4,095.73 down 1%. IT companies continue to hit 52 week lows; Infosys, TCS, Patni, Tech Mahindra, Hexaware hit 52 week low.
The NSE cash turnover was at Rs 19630.58 crore and the NSE F&O turnover was at Rs 67336.02 crore. The BSE cash turnover was Rs 7941.03 crore. Total market wide turnover was at Rs 94907.63 crore.
Source:moneycontrol.com

Intraday Calls for 13th November

Market may open with flat to positive. Remains very volatile.

Buy for Intraday:

Hindalco Industries,
Neyveli Lignite,
NTPC
PTC India,
RNRL
IDBI
Roman Tarmat
Koutons Retail
Graphite India,
SuryaChakra Power,
Bongaigoan Refinery

*****Maximaa Systems hits buyer freeze before cooling down a bit. Accumulate.
& Do not forget CHD Developers also.

Good Luck

Monday, November 12, 2007

Short Term Delivery Pick: CHD Developers Ltd.

CHD Developers Ltd. (BSE: 526917)
CMP : Rs. 17.50/-
52 Week High : Rs. 32.1/-
52 Week Low : Rs. 5.85/-
Face Value : Rs. 2/-
EPS : Rs. 2.96/-
P.E.: 5.91
200 Days Simpal Moving Average : Rs. 16.87/-
Trading very cheap at current level as compare to its peers which are trading at 10 to 50x P.E. Multiples. At least at 10x P.E. multiple it's price should be around Rs. 30/- as company continuesly doing well and can do well in future.
Website: http://www.chddevelopers.com/
Sept. Quarter Profit (Sep 07): Rs. 35.84 Million (Profit rises 631 % QOQ)
Year Profit (March 07): Rs. 91.23 Million (Profit rises 323% YOY)
Recommandation: Accumulate (Buy at current Level and at every fall)
Target : Rs. 28-32/- (Short - Med term) Rs. 50/- (Long Term)
(Before investing do your own research)

Disclaimer

The information in this publication is provided by http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ is intended for use for Readers & Traders . Every effort is made to provide accurate information, but http://www.moneybazzar.blogspot.com/ cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or of the market analysis. This is a newsletter and is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell futures. There is a high risk of loss in trading futures. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this newsletter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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